Ben Ford

@Macro_Hive

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

Must read piece imo

https://t.co/22ZytH9eND

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

In a world where the #Fed remains in an extended hold what can convince markets to sell $USD into a new range? Ie can $EURUSD break 1.20 if rate differentials fail to dramatically tighten?

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

A real MPC member would be dovish right now, wait for the market to load up on SFIZ7 longs, and then release the most hawkish set of MPC minutes you’ve possibly seen. Poor show

[Michael Brown @MrMBrown]

Jeez what on earth has this guy been smoking!?

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

On a side note, why did reds rally most on PPI. Perhaps I missed something. Don’t go in Sep you don’t go at all?

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

USD spot:vol correlation has secretly catapulted higher. The backdrop typically comes with three things:

1. A peak in USD
2. Lower implied vols
3. Continued FX carry support

Let's see if it plays out.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

3. FX carry has increased support. FX vols continuing to decline would back the strategy in traditional sense. My framework remains heavily bullish. $ZAR and $COP have been strongest performers over past week.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

🇺🇸 Three FX impacts post #CPI 🇺🇸

1. Lower hurdle for $USD weakness. Softish CPI helps Waller and Cook remain on sidelines. Kashkari speeches interesting ahead, given insurance hike SEP. #FOMC hikes coming further off the table.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

2. FX risk can play catch-up. It has been lagging improvements in eqs, credit, and EM. Post release, $AUD edged higher vs $JPY and $CHF. Continued SNB-driven CHF protection + weakening BoP. AUD/CHR broken 2026 highs. Return to 0.60 back on the table.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

@VKMacro Phenomenal timing from the Japanese, though. It’s like they were waiting for you to say “they’re not going in Sep” 😂

Framework made perfect sense, in fairness

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

@macroguru9 The first is a positive. It’s small and constructive. The second reduces fiscal premia. Granted, the third is a negative, but it’s no change on what is already well priced into a market. Personally, think the GBP-Burnham negative comes next year when things are “planned”.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

@LJKawa Burnham has taken just about every exciting option off the 2026 table, claimed to have funded near everything, and put himself with some sensible people (econ trio, Healey).

Useless chart from DB too, imo. Should really be EURGBP Vol vs CVIX. Also, noise starts later!

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

So, in short, BoE pricing only really makes sense if you believe one of two things:

1) UK neutral has accelerated materially away from the rest of G10.
2) The UK economy has underperformed for largely idiosyncratic reasons over the past few years.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

BoE pricing makes no sense. None whatsoever.

You have to start making some historically awkward assumptions about the level of neutral for it to make sense.

I’ll explain in three parts:

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

3) And the obvious comparison looks wrong, too

UK policy decisions (current rates and post-COVID cuts) look very similar to the Fed

Yet underlying US growth is much stronger (widest non-recessionary rebound diff since 2012)

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

@HannoLustig @HannoLustig what happens if you do the exact same chart BUT for the 2Y?

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

@VKMacro Come on Viresh. There is something in today! Three things 1) markets are scared of dovish outturn (moved 8bps on release), 2) low hire, low fire econ, 3) low employee bargaining power. Useless yield chart used by Brent, too. Let’s just compare the start of a conflict to today lol

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

and had begun to favour RoW over the US, 3) the Fed were unlikely to deliver on peak hawkishness that Warsh instilled into the market. We continue to see that as true.

Overall, I remain bullish FX carry (exc JPY) and bearish USD.

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 USD UPDATE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Today’s NFP/UR update backs the bearish USD view we’ve had since the latter stages of July, but I’m not getting carried away.

Here’s the three important points you need to know:

[Ben Ford @BenAJFord]

3) USD downside can continue. We turned bearish USD heading into the end of July when positioning was heavily bullish on three fronts: 1) USD bullishness was heavy and our shock-implied positioning showed a want for USD downside had emerged, 2) foreign currency flows had peaked