MrB

Value investor

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Quick common sense check on this claim that the UAE will invest $1.4 trillion in the US.

The UAE's GDP is $0.5 trillion.

No country will (or can) invest 3 years worth of its entire GDP in the U.S. 😅 If you believe this you need to need to have your brain checked.

The numbers Trump is quoting here are utterly delusional.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Some have misunderstood my post below, likely due to its length. So let me explain my thoughts in a few words.

With the China tariffs in place, time is not our friend as the high tariffs put pressure on American companies — particularly the small ones — and our economy.

If the tariffs are paused, the pressure on the U.S. economy is largely removed and time becomes our friend and China’s enemy in the negotiation.

Every U.S. business is already moving its supply chain and manufacturing out of China. And the more time that goes by, the worse it will get for China.

The only thing that stops the deluge is China eliminating its tariffs, non-tariff barriers, market access restrictions, SOE subsidies, and IP theft etc. that make China a bad place to do business.

So @realDonaldTrump, let’s pause the China tariffs and take the pressure off American companies, and you will have all the time and leverage in the world to negotiate a great deal with China.

[MrB @benandfun]

@NoContextHumans 2012

[Brent Neiman @BrentNeiman]

I do not think that the government's formula is an appropriate way to think about reciprocal tariffs. And it is unclear what the note references or doesn’t from my research with Cavallo et al. But I believe our work suggests the value for the “elasticity of import prices to tariffs” should be close to 1. If that value were used, rather than 0.25, I believe their calculation of reciprocal tariffs would be lower by a factor of four.