Ben Horne

Sometimes the urge to do bad is nearly overpowering.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

My first Substack post (of many) has finally dropped! Come and get some.

I laid out my official 1 year prediction for AI.

TLDR: the bubble pops.

https://t.co/p26WGNEzGn

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@Christi60805497 @twiggysays True, good chance there's a ton of "I need to own a slice of AGI!" panic buying from the retail crowd once the bell rings.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

There's a non-trivial chance that the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs never happen because their valuations crumble before they even make it to the starting line.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

To be clear I totally think they will IPO, but to play along...

If SpaceX IPO goes poorly, that could spook them.

If their revenues take big hits from the tokenmaxxing era ending, and those numbers leak, that could also be bad.

If there's something ugly in their S-1s, that could also change things.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@MikePepi Thanks my guy!

More on the way.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

My first Substack post (of many) has finally dropped! Come and get some.

I laid out my official 1 year prediction for AI.

TLDR: the bubble pops.

https://t.co/p26WGNEzGn

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@jagunanthi No one forced you to reply big dawg.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

A lot of y'all in the replies think you're clever with your "what odds will you accept?"/"put your money where your mouth is" replies, as if "non-trivial" means 50% lol.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@DamirWallener I'm going to short all of these IPOs, most likely.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@jagunanthi I would need really good odds.

Do you know what non-trivial means?

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@arthurcolle I like this. Clever market idea.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@a1gardener 😏

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@HighyieldHarry I agree, it's not, but still.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@sudelpool True.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@AndyXAndersen I agree they will probably happen.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@temfr13 You're thinking of SpaceX.

The lab IPOs prob not happening until the fall.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@twiggysays I would take +400 on one or both of them either not IPOing or IPOing @ < 750 bn valuation.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@DKThomp Any way you spin this it doesn't look good for the labs and hyperscalers, who have hundreds of billions worth of fixed commitments and circular debt backed up by nothing but a product that is quickly becoming commodified and depreciating in value.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@tylermacro10 Except crypto is 100% bullshit, so anyone boosting it is negative signal.

AI on the other hand is only 50% bullshit, so yes it can be hard to see who is who.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@HighyieldHarry Me, unironically.

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@Bonecondor

[Ben Horne @benjamin_horne]

@FloPhy453