Ben Klepacki

Co-founder | Entrepreneur | Energy Innovator
The Energy Evolution requires a mix of both responsibly developed fossil fuels and renewables. Let's work together.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

And now it starts.

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇪🇺 China and European Union in talks to abolish EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The Consequences of Liberation Day

Following up on my post below from earlier this week, now that we see yesterday's tariff announcements, it appears to me that the first order consequences of them will be significantly stagflationary in the U.S. and significantly deflationary/recessionary in sanctioned countries. As for the second order consequences, we will see other countries' responses, significant policy changes in all countries to try to negate these undesired effects with policy tools at their disposal (most importantly via their monetary and fiscal policies). I also think negotiations and changes in what the U.S. policies will end up being will come as second order consequences. For example, we have seen reciprocal tariffs by China (which if enacted and followed by other countries will have huge effects), and, as I mentioned in my earlier article, I can imagine negotiations taking place over a China-U.S. deal to strengthen China’s RMB relative to the USD in exchange for some trade relief. If that were to happen, it would be more deflationary and depressing for China, which in turn would need to lead to an easier monetary and/or fiscal policy in China. You get the picture. We have in store many big surprises and changes ahead.

To reiterate what is clear in any case and should be kept in mind is that…

…1) the production, trade, and capital imbalances (most importantly the debts) must come down one way or another, because they are dangerously unsustainable for monetary, economic, and geopolitical reasons (so the current monetary, economic, and geopolitical orders must change in big ways)…

…2) they will likely come with abrupt, unconventional changes (like those I describe in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle) and…

…3) the longer term monetary, political, and geopolitical effects will depend mostly on the trust in the quality of the debt and capital markets as a safe store-hold of wealth, countries' productivity levels, and the political systems that make countries attractive places to live, work, and invest.

Speaking of balance, I hope that your portfolio is balanced in the ways that I won’t digress deeply into here but have described previously in my books (i.e., across asset classes and geographies in an uncorrelated way and informed by which assets do well in different inflationary and growth environments). Expect the ride ahead to produce some very big tests and shakeouts that will be great tests of investors’ skills as the critically important monetary, domestic political, and international geopolitical orders are breaking down. Frankly, I look forward to this challenge as it is during such challenging times in the game that the opportunities make a big difference and distinguish oneself are the greatest.

The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@PremierScottMoe Nobody wins in a trade war. The global balance of power is in flux. For democracy and freedom to stick around we need to throw aside the petty infighting and partisanship and work together. Lets focus on the economy and business and get the government out of social politics.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@RennyGurl27 @PierrePoilievre How do we get back to the days of centrist government and moderation and political views?

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@MarkJCarney I like the concept. At a federal level what policies can we implement that can enable more housing development at a municipal level?

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@PierrePoilievre The world needs cost-effective, secure and responsible energy. To do this we need "all of the above".

This doesn't change the number of molecules consumed. It guarantees supply, ensures responsible development and makes the system more efficient.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@United Explain this math to me? Same flight, same booking time, same ticket class.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

Awesome venue for the Methane Leadership Conference with @CRIN_Canada and @PTAC_Canada

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@nationalpost As someone with a career in cleantech, I can say one thing with confidence. We still need fossil fuels. The tech is not there to part with them, period. As a leader environmental stewardship, we need to support our allies.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

As someone with a career in cleantech, I can say one thing with confidence. We still need fossil fuels. The tech is not there to part with them, period. As a leader environmental stewardship, we need to support our allies. https://t.co/B8Z3KFQ1ht

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

It is more important than ever to support the industry in responsible energy development. As opposed to fighting let's work together to do the best with what we have. #Unity #Energy #methane #energyevolution #energytransition #future
https://t.co/Pu4rONjgqd

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

There's still hope!
https://t.co/YTN0hBSaIq

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@David06162967 @mightysun1 @CTVNews Ever get confused how people that don't care about something take the time to tell you they don't care?

[Canadian Energy Centre @CDNEnergyCentre]

Innovation by Canada's world-class oil and gas sector will be key to reducing the impact of GHG emissions such as methane. To learn more, click here: https://t.co/kR67VRSeo7 @WestgenTech @TCEnergy @Shell_Canada

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@Sonos How is it that products I can still buy brand new are considered legacy products and will no longer be supported? My Connects are literally between 1 and 2 years old.

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@GPDA_ @danielricciardo Get rid of Bernie! #iwantf1back

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@BBC Save #TopGear #SaveClarkson

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@JeremyClarkson Is there a reason we haven't been able to see an Agera around the TG track? #TopGear #Koenigsegg #Newrecord?

[Leonard Nimoy @TheRealNimoy]

A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. LLAP

[Ben Klepacki @benklepacki]

@crbrownlee87 @87Fried @jamesfried84 @carys_r #beginnerhockey #fallinonmyass