Ben Le Huray

[Robert Peston @Peston]

We just learned that the world’s most powerful person, Donald Trump, has a boss: the bond market.

He may not have acknowledged this to himself, yet, but the global financial tumult he caused - and has temporarily eased - has locked him in a fiscal prison.

Because, as I have been saying for 24 hours, he came perilously close yesterday to having caused such an extreme fall in the price of US government debt that it would have become prohibitively expensive for his administration to fund a large deficit - more than 6% of GDP - and also to refinance the almost $8 trillion of government debt that matures in the coming year (almost a third of America’s sovereign debt).

The point is he is totally in hock to the good will of bonds investors.

And when he announced his reckless roster of massive tariffs eight days ago he alienated them, because they feared he would tank the economy such that tax revenues would plummet and the deficit would balloon.

So they sold US government bonds, Treasuries, and the yield on the bonds - the de facto interest rate - soared.

Which is why Trump blinked, and put on hold the more extreme tariffs, except for the 140% on China, for 90 days.

You might think the worst part of this is the uncertainty he has created for businesses and investors for the next 90 days. Since no one in their right minds would make a major US investment till the final tariff determinations are made.

But the cancerous uncertainty is not the worst of it.

The worst of it is he has shredded any respect that overseas governments and investors might have had for America’s economic and fiscal competence.

Shades - you might say - of how Truss and Kwarteng’s unwise unfunded tax cuts undermined the perceived fiscal competence of the UK.

But unlike Truss and Kwarteng, there is pretty much no mechanism for removing Trump.

All of which means that bond and stock markets will remain fragile and volatile - fearful that Trump will regain his mojo and engage in some other fiscal extravagance.

He has also handed a loaded gun to his perceived enemy, China, and his supposed ally Japan.

This matters in both cases, because he is engaged in the mother of all trade wars with China - and Japan wants a trade deal with him that would see it escape mega tariffs.

The loaded guns they have are their massive loans to the US government. Japan owns more than a trillion dollars of US Treasuries and China not much less.

If they were to sell those bonds, or even if they chose not to refinance maturing bonds, that could be a disaster for Trump. Because it could cause another potentially crippling spike in bond yields.

Here is the measure of Trump’s debacle.

He may well have trashed America’s single most important financial competitive advantage, namely that investors have traditionally bought the dollar and US Treasuries at a time of economic and political uncertainty.

No more - because he personally has become the world’s source of economic uncertainty snd anxiety.

So, as I say he, is now in a fiscal prison. And if bond investors, including Japan and China, see him imposing tariffs or cutting taxes in ways they don’t like, they learned yesterday they have the means and power to stop him.

[Sketchplanations @sketchplanator]

Absolutely amazing the way spiders do this.

[Rob Bell @MrRobBell]

How did Inventor Tom come up with 2 of his best selling product ideas? https://t.co/5vGhOA4boE via @YouTube

[Ben Le Huray @benlehuray]

@chrisroth408 😆

[Ben Le Huray @benlehuray]

@HeidiSoulsby 🤦‍♂️

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

Calling all Islanders!

There are only a few days left to have your say on topics surrounding local berths, boat ownership and marina services.

Find our survey on the link below.
https://t.co/EZ6ZSdVjNQ

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

Guernsey experienced a high volume in its harbours this weekend from visitors taking part in the Savills Inter-Island Yacht race that saw 54 total entries all Jersey bound as well as the Spirit Yacht Regatta sponsored by Locate Guernsey which will be continuing all of this week.

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

In June 2019 we saw around 1,500 visitors to Guernsey through the pier heads. This year, we’re only just behind at around 1,270 but expect to exceed that by the end of this month.

We're already seeing an increase in visitors over the weekend with two local events taking place.

[Ben Le Huray @benlehuray]

@capt_murray Amen to that!

[Guernsey Airport ✈ @GuernseyAirport]

Today will be busy with a third more passengers on red-eye flights. If travelling, please help us minimise queue times & make your departure as smooth as poss by arriving in good time, only bringing permitted hand baggage & removing all liquids & laptops. https://t.co/pdS1ZwgIEQ

[Guernsey Airport ✈ @GuernseyAirport]

Just as a reminder from Tuesday (26 April), there will be some disruption as we start our work on installing the new passenger security screening equipment. Please allow plenty of time for security whilst this work takes place. https://t.co/eguq9xlwU3

[Guernsey Airport ✈ @GuernseyAirport]

New security scanners for hand luggage at Guernsey Airport are on the way. Once installed, the state-of-the-art equipment promises to reduce queues at peak times & adapt to future airport requirements. Work will start next week in the security screening area before departures.

[Ambulance and Rescue Guernsey @SJARS_Guernsey]

Did you know that the St John Healthcare Shop caters for all your access, mobility & healthcare needs?

Plus every purchase you make helps support the wider work of St John in our community, incl youth work, Community First Responders & Event First Aid.

Visit us at the Rohais.

[Ben Le Huray @benlehuray]

Not your typical office and not your typical job of work either. Fascinating, challenging and rewarding. #Diving #guernsey #Special

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

We are looking to recruit an Equipment Technician. You will be assisting in the safe operation of Guernsey Harbours' commercial dive team. You'll be the planning diving projects in the harbours, marinas and at sea. Apply: https://t.co/0OHmnklPUH

[Ambulance and Rescue Guernsey @SJARS_Guernsey]

When the stairs become too much St John Healthcare engineers are trained to help you find the right access solution for your individual needs, including home survey, installation & maintenance of the unique & innovative range of @StiltzLifts.

📞729268 or 📧 [email protected]

[Ben Le Huray @benlehuray]

Guernsey Ports Fire & Rescue Service - Airside and Seaside! @GuernseyAirport

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

Guernsey Harbours' workboat Sarnia was busy assisting Guernsey Fire and Rescue Service this morning providing fire fighting water for a vegetation fire above Marble Bay.

[Guernsey Airport ✈ @GuernseyAirport]

If travelling to the Bailiwick, we strongly advise you complete the Travel Tracker BEFORE starting your journey, to help reduce waiting times on arrival. To complete the form as a Bailiwick resident, you need your Social Security number. More details: https://t.co/NKkSTjjtVk

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

Strong interest with local students at the @GuernseyCollege in its #iwed day as we are promoting a wide range of aviation and maritime #STEM careers for women. @Govgg

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

We are seeking expressions of interest for electrician roles in our Technical Services team. This role works to maintain vital systems that help keep the Bailiwick supplied by sea. See our careers webpage: https://t.co/jQoPWeWlPb or email us: [email protected] for more info.

[Guernsey Harbours @gsyharbours]

Proposals have been published for a major new harbour development. This will relieve St Peter Port and St Sampson’s of some current commercial activity, releasing space for other uses, and provide an opportunity to revitalise The Bridge. https://t.co/ZSEZRfaOjP #FutureHarbours