Ben O'Hare

Medical marketing. Investing apprentice. Global MBA @IEBusiness Kansas State University '05 @kstatealumni

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

Crypto has struggled recently but TeraWulf $WULF is a standout. Big base on the weekly and currently signaling squeeze breakout to the upside. Can it weather the tech selloff and continue higher? @Tradingalpha_

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@ZeroHedge_ Can you review ARM? Holding up well against the rest of tech. Thanks!

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Good morning and God bless to our global #Team42 community!

Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Has #DeepSeek ended the bull case for #AI stocks?

The NASDAQ 100 is down -5% today on news this weekend that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek built a model that outperformed Meta's Llama 3.1, OpenAI's GPT-4o, and Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 3.5 in accuracy tests for complex problem solving, math, and coding. Last week DeepSeek released r1, a reasoning model that also outperformed OpenAI's latest o1 in many of those third-party tests.

The key issue for investors is that DeepSeek built their AI model in only two months for $6mil — a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of billions being spent on AI development by the hyperscalers. 

Another issue for investors is that DeepSeek successfully navigated US export restrictions on the most advanced semiconductors. China was cut off from accessing NVDIA’s $NVDA H100 chips, forcing DeepSeek to train its model using cheaper and less-powerful H800s.

Per Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas: “Necessity is the mother of invention. Because they had to figure out work-arounds, they actually ended up building something a lot more efficient.” 

Per Microsoft $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella: “To see the DeepSeek new model, it's super impressive in terms of both how they have really effectively done an open-source model that does this inference-time compute, and is super-compute efficient. We should take the developments out of China very, very seriously.”

In my conversations with private AI company CEOs and Tech PMs this weekend, the DeepSeek developments do appear to be a game-changer from the perspective of what is possible from a software development perspective. While DeepSeek calls into question the sheer amount of AI-related capex spend globally, some believe that the techniques it used to train its model will be incorporated into larger, more expensive models for even more functionality.

Another potential positive catalyst is the likelihood we see even more intervention from the US government regarding subsidies and export controls. President Trump has already identified China as the US’ biggest threat to global AI dominance — an explicit goal he outlined when announcing his AI-focused executive orders and the Stargate project last week. 

How the various hyperscaler stocks respond to their upcoming earnings will determine whether the DeepSeek news represents the beginning of the end w/r/t the bull market in AI stocks: Microsoft $MSFT, META $META, ASML $ASML, and Tesla $TSLA Wednesday 1/29, Apple $APPL Thursday 1/30, Alphabet $GOOGL Tuesday 2/4, Amazon $AMZN Thursday 2/6, and NVDIA $NVDA Wednesday 2/26.

Above all else, trust your risk management systems. The trend is your friend. The market will figure out how much to discount the DeepSeek development and what that ultimately means for the bull market in AI stocks much more efficiently than any investor relying solely on their fundamental understanding of these dynamics.

Please like and repost if you found this note helpful. Thank you!

Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets requires a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: https://t.co/LQvjX7i7qY.

Have a great day!
-Skipper

[Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11]

The people who just gave Donald Trump a sweeping mandate do not want Thune or Cornyn to lead the US Senate.

They want Rick Scott. It's very clear.

Share if you agree.

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

Don’t mistake silence for apathy. When people are quiet, they’re often busy thinking and learning.

Extraverts like to process ideas by talking them through. Introverts prefer to reflect before they speak.

I'm not disengaged. I'm listening to your views and formulating mine.

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@42MacroAware Haven't received it yet DD but will be on the look out...

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@42MacroAware Congratulations Darius! All the best wishes to you and your new family! 🥂🎉

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@CanteringClark Global CB liquidity, looking like it’s about to rollover again which would be negative for risk assets

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@Delphi_Digital NFT

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@rektcapital HELLZ YEAH!!

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@CryptoCapo_ I want to believe but macro floating all boats here

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@CalebSandfort @42macroDDale This is awesome! thank you!

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@CanteringClark Yes please!

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@BlazejSarlej @Trader_XO Check out FxStreet, Sam has a playlist there https://t.co/TOIkorT2Ui

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@42macroDDale @42macro Thanks Darius!!

[Ben O'Hare @beno136]

@ShardiB2 Finally!!

[Madi Hilly @MadiHilly]

MYTH: We don't have a solution to nuclear's "waste problem"

REALITY: Nuclear waste isn't a problem. In fact, it’s the best solution we have to meeting our energy needs while protecting the natural environment!

Here's what you need to know: