Ben Smith

Bull? Bear? Bison?

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

🚨 A NEW DOCUMENT JUST DROPPED:

Goldman just updated their oil forecasts today and the numbers are not pretty.

This is probably the most important tweet you’ll read today.

If you have any amount of money invested in the market, read every detail.

Here’s what they’re actually saying:

Base case: Brent hits $90 by Q4 2026. Up from their prior forecast of $80.

That’s just the base case.

Adverse scenario: $100+ if Gulf exports only normalize by end of July.

Severely adverse scenario: nearly $120 if Hormuz flows don’t recover above 70% and permanent capacity damage stays.

The reason this matters is the math underneath it.

Goldman estimates 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf production are currently offline.

Global inventories are drawing down at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April alone.

They’re projecting the market swings from a 1.8mb/d surplus last year to a 9.6mb/d deficit in Q2 2026.

That’s not a tight market. That’s a historically extreme supply shock.

And the only scenario where oil comes back toward $80 is if Gulf exports fully normalize by mid-June with no lasting capacity damage and strong OPEC and US supply responses. Goldman calls that the benign case.

Now think about what this means for inflation.

We already got a CPI print at 3.3% with energy up 10.9% in a single month.

The April print hasn’t landed yet.

Neither has May or June.

Goldman is telling you right now that the oil shock hasn’t peaked, it’s ongoing.

And if Hormuz doesn’t fully reopen on schedule the market hasn’t even begun to price what comes next.

The Fed meets tomorrow, and they can’t cut into this.

If you want to know where I’m deploying capital, pay attention because it’s coming soon.

A lot of people will regret not following me.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

🤺 CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER 🤺
——————————————-

So… On 3/30 “Trump ‘pretty sure’ of Iran deal”

https://t.co/4Emtgfyrr8

Then… On 3/31 “Trump says U.S. could end Iran war in 2 to 3 weeks”

https://t.co/v9Ljda3IXh

—————————-

FFWD 📼: 4 weeks….

👉Brent Crude 🛢️$103 ~> $85 ~> $103

Physical Market: 📉📈… 👃🐂💩

〰️

👉 SPX 🚀 $6315 ~> $7175

Casino Market: 📈📈📈… 🚀 🚀 🚀

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

🥐 fresh crumbs on @Stocktwits

What's the PAIN TRADE

🔸 Market Down
🔸 Vol Down
🔸 Precious Metals down

This market has lost its momentum

This Administration knows, to get things moving again ... "You Gotta Take it down to take it up"

A deflationary moment within an inflationary push

Full Interview @jam_croissant with @Buncahn
https://t.co/9TF2EMYv5O

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Stan Druckenmiller’s current positions:

- LONG Korea + Japan (+ Brazil)
- LONG Copper (AI + tight supply)
- LONG Gold (geopolitics)
- SHORT Bonds

Portfolio is no longer "AI-driven". He’s bearish on the Dollar but bullish on the US economy with disinflationary growth.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

And now, the cockroaches come out:

Apollo announced that its private credit fund, MidCap Financial Investment Corp. (MFIC), has reduced its dividend and re-evaluated its asset values, "due to challenges in certain segments of its loan portfolio."

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

🥐 fresh crumbs

2026 Expectations ✨️

$SPX (S&P 500):
The index is pinned driving historic dispersion in the market, as rotation persits (growth leaders fading as defensives + staples outperform)

$Gold (Precious Metals):
Structural upside remains, but not reliable this year as a safe haven amid broader risk-off moves

$Oil (Energy/Crude):
Energy sector likely continues as a defensive rotation play as upside risks persist from geopolitical tensions (Iran), potentially driving sharp spikes

⚠️ Mid-term year cautious outlook

Volatility possible into each Quarterly OPEX (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec), with probable stair-step downside continuation rather than sharp crash, barring any catalyst to accelerate the downside

Deflationary Period
Greater adoption of AI is historically deflationary, potentially leading to Universal Basic Income

Ultimately Inflationary
Eventually, this administration will control the Fed, buyback debt, write big checks, and inject liquidity driving markets higher along with rates

@jam_croissant with Alan Dunne on @TopTradersLive
https://t.co/tv1OYWoGdT

[Ben Smith @benthesmit]

@jam_croissant You need to add one of these to the collection...

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

“For Old Bull Times”

Should old bull markets fade away,
And headlines turn to war?
While Congress spends another day
Like debt’s just one thing more.

🎵Chorus:
For old 🐂 times, my friends,
For old 🐂 times —
We raise 🥃, then hedge the crash,
For old 🐂 times.

The populists all pound the 🥁 ,
“Protect! Reserve! Inflate!”
They build the walls, they block the ballotbox 🗳️ ,
And say it’s “for the state.”

They promise 🏡 & housing booms,
“Just build — supply will rise!”
Yet prices float like helium 🎈🎈,
Still drifting higher to the skies .

🎵 Chorus
The 🌎 grows tense — from Taiwan’s shore,
To Caracas set ablaze 🔥—
And whispers: “Moldova next?”
Run cold through market days.

Lithium & Copper now 🚀 to the 🌙 ,
While yields hit 6 — oh my.
The Fed cuts 1st — then spins around,
& hikes back up to the sky.

🎵 Chorus
Regional banks 🏦 feel pressure build,
Private credit shuts the gate.
Those marked-to-myth illusions wilt —
Leverage learns its fate.

Meanwhile The Oracle, retired now, sits calmly on his cash,
Exiting at the ⛰️ , letting his disciples buy into the waterfall —
Insurance, float, & boring things
Once again Outlasts us — 1 & all.

🎵 Chorus
A populist anti-Pedo wave through Congress rolls,
Impeachments fills the feed —
And portfolios unwind again,
Like ’22 on speed.

The markets down — and strangely too,
Vol quietly declines…
A silent crash, a haunted past —
Where history always rhymes.

🎵 Final Chorus:
For old 🐂 times, my friends,
For old 🐂 times —
We 🥂 the past, then brace at last,
For old Bull times.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

The founder of the world's largest hedge fund just dropped his roadmap for 2026.

We ran it through Sidekick to break down the key takeaways and where he’s positioning as markets shift.

Here’s the breakdown:

[Ben Smith @benthesmit]

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[Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight]

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A one-page visual to keep on your desk, plus examples to make it stick.

Want it?

Reply “COMPASS” + retweet, and I’ll DM you the link (must follow so I can message you).

Available for a couple of days—then it goes back in the vault.

[Mitchell Baldridge @baldridgecpa]

Owning a small business is still the best tax deal in America.

The One Big Beautiful Bill just made it even better.

Whether it’s a $10K side hustle or $10MM business, the new opportunities for tax savings and wealth creation are next level.

Let’s walk through how it works -

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

A Treasury policy focused solely on short-term bills would be deeply disruptive to the swap market, which relies on a functioning, liquid long-end Treasury curve for pricing, hedging, and balance-sheet efficiency.
————————————————

If the U.S. Treasury were to shift all of its issuance to sub-9-month maturities, the effect on the interest rate swap market would be profound and destabilizing in both the short- and long-ends. Here’s a breakdown of how such a policy could impact the swap curve, hedging behavior, and market function:
⸻

🧩 1. Distortion of the Swap Curve and Term Premium

🔹 Fewer Treasuries at Long Maturities
•Treasury bonds provide the benchmark for pricing swap rates (e.g. 10-year UST vs. 10-year swap rate).
•If long-end issuance dries up, swap spreads may invert or widen abnormally, especially:
•Long-dated swap spreads widen (due to lack of UST collateral)
•Short-end spreads compress (due to heavy bill issuance)

🔹 Swap Curve Dislocation
•The swap curve may steepen artificially at the short end, flatten or invert at the long end.
•If the Treasury is suppressing duration, the swap curve may become a poor signal of market expectations.

⸻

🛡️ 2. Hedging Dysfunction for Fixed Income Participants

🔹 Who Hedged with Swaps?
•Mortgage originators
•Corporate bond issuers
•Banks managing duration
•Insurers/pensions

These participants use swaps to hedge interest rate risk or lock in future funding rates.

If long-end Treasury issuance disappears:
•Swap market loses its pricing anchor.
•Treasuries become less liquid, making hedging more costly or uncertain.
•Hedging errors or mismatches increase — potentially systemic in size.

⸻

🧮 3. Basis Risk and Liquidity Mismatches

🔹 Treasury-Swap Basis (TSB)
•The Treasury-swap spread becomes more volatile and less anchored by arbitrage.
•TSB basis risk increases → harder for dealers and risk managers to hedge books.

🔹 Forward Swap Volatility
•A bill-heavy issuance regime introduces supply-driven dislocations in front-end rates, making:
•Forward swap rates (e.g., 1y1y, 2y1y) more volatile
•Short-end swap hedging (via SOFR) harder to price

⸻

🔄 4. Repo and Collateral Feedback Loop
•Swaps are collateralized in cleared markets → usually with Treasuries.
•With less long-end UST collateral, clearinghouse margins may shift.
•Repo rates become decoupled from longer-duration swap spreads, impairing arbitrage.

⸻

📉 5. Dealer Balance Sheet & Risk Concentration
•Dealers use Treasuries for duration warehousing and swap book hedging.
•A short-only issuance regime means:
•Fewer long bonds to hedge swap positions
•Greater exposure to swap curve risk
•Possible margin expansion in swap spreads as dealers pull back

⸻

✅ Summary of Swap Market Effects

AreaEffect of Sub-9mo Treasury Issuance
Swap CurveLikely distorts (steepens short-end, flattens/inverts long-end)
Swap SpreadsLong-dated spreads widen abnormally, short-end compresses
TSB ArbitrageBasis risk increases; less reliable pricing
Hedging FunctionalityDisrupted for banks, insurers, MBS desks
Forward VolatilityMore noise in short-term forward rates
Liquidity/Repo DynamicsLess long-duration collateral; tighter repo availability
Systemic RiskBasis blowouts could echo LTCM-style pressure

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

😂

Not sure why you crave my attention so much…. I can only think it has to do with your deep insecurity & my consistent running ⭕️’s around you for years.

You should watch my long form convos , so you better understand my views instead of randomly popping in every 3 months with some lazy uniformed comment.

But because you need spoon feeding here you go:

In December I stated a slowdown in Q2 & QE is what the admin wanted. That is why they were likely to push the market down. I called for the Feb-March OpEx cycle decline and a steep rally starting in April that likely failed somewhere below all time highs.

We were bullish all last year for over 20% of the rally. We called for the summer of George last year from early May to late July and the pivoted to long vol At July Vixperation.

Your 2 dimensional thinking had you bearish all year. No nuance. No pivots. Just short all the way up.

When the admin didn’t get the QE they wanted, they pivoted in full at the bottom. The budget changed in congress. The tariffs went on pause. And Elon was cut loose from the administration. The recession call was wrong because it didn’t foresee the speed of the admin pivot. But the reality is we got a big negative Q1 GDP print and a liquidity response equivalent to QE from the admin.

When the rally turned, like I called it would in April, you once again rode my coattail, turning late . But Not going long like us, but instead stating with a milketoast ‘flattening here’

You then turned short early again riding it up for more losses. More stubborn 2 dimensional thinking.

After a rally into my 5700-6000 range. a month ago I said publicly that we were looking for shorts again in that range for potential stair steps down. But that if it didn’t happen by end of month we would need to give up on the short for a few months, due to overwhelming vol supply. Only to be revisited in August.

We chopped and chopped, despite quite a few 2 sided opportunities, due to overwhelming vol supply…But, like we telegraphed a month ago, and have insinuated was likely coming, we have now pivoted to a ‘summer of George’. 2 month vol compression track. Same thing as last year until Aug 1. This is not necessarily bullish. Just choppy and vol compressing.

The 1 year view is still intact. -35-50% peak to trough by June 2026 with some coming later this year, but most likely coming early next year.

And yes I think this admin is intent to extend their presidency to a 3rd term, as they have publicly said they are. I have reliable info that says this is already being discussed. And martial law is their preferred To remind you, they already showed a willingness to go to great lengths to stay in office…

So yup all time frames and ‘bases’ covered.

This is the problem with your approach. Dogmatic 2 dimensional thinking. All arrows must be down or all arrows must be up. That’s not how the world works. Be water.

I’m happy to explain it all to you in more excruciating detail in person, if you would like a conversation. But I’m guessing you don’t want that. You just want engagement.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Historically, several late-stage empires have experienced decade-plus periods of secular inflation. The Common Themes Across These Cases are:
1.Monetary distortion – often via currency debasement or excessive issuance without productivity growth.
2.Military overreach – empires straining to maintain or expand borders and influence.
3.Administrative decay – inability to collect taxes efficiently or manage spending.
4.Declining trust in institutions – both monetary and political.

These secular inflations typically signal imperial overstretch, the breakdown of old economic systems, and a transition period before reform, or collapse.

[Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida @ramahluwalia]

5 YEAR MONEY COMING DUE

There is a lot of talk about 5 year debt coming due by folks like @jam_croissant

Loans taken out 5 years ago, during QE and Covid era stimulus checks, must be paid back soon.

Debt isn't really ever paid back. It's refinanced.

Debt is used to finance assets.

Debt isn't a problem if asset values increase.

And they certainly have increased over the last 5 years...

Systems can handle gradual shifts. Sudden shocks to system don't let debt holders refinance well.

Not only is there a need for stable prices in goods and wages so consumers and businesses can plan, there is a need for stable pricing in interest rates and asset prices.

Still, the $10 Tn+ loss in asset value - combined with increased long-term interest rates - is a kind of self-inflicted economic harm to the economy that is hard to find comparable analogs in economic history.

There's no other way to put it.

And, the story yesterday about Bessent and Lutnick getting a 90-day tariff exemption when Navarro was presumably taking a pee break reminds me of my kids running to Mom or Dad to get what they want.

Big picture... This does not inspire market confidence.

Institutions will look at this and hold back. Institutions set prices.

I also expect international value can continue to do well with dollar weakness (which also wasn't supposed to happen).

[Karst @KarstResearch]

Revisited this recently and man...

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Are U Ready? This is going to blow your mind 🤯….

Tariff’s & Protectionism are, by definition, a Liberal leftist policy…

This may shock you but I operate in financial markets…I tend to believe in free market economics & lean fiscally RIGHT.

That said, we need bumpers on free markets, or they go too far. Because the rich and powerful will eventually always eat the weak. That is the natural state of the world. Survival of the fittest. So, We need a safety net & common sense protections for individuals, &, importantly, we need to rebalance inequality when the pendulum swings to far…

That said, Trump’s LEFTIST policies are SO FAR f*ing left though they are spooking free market investors… not me.

WHO’S THE LIBTARD NOW ⁉️