A 10% loss requires a 11% gain to get back to even.
A 20% loss requires a 25% gain to get back to even.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to get back to even.
A 90% loss requires a 900% gain to get back to even.
This is why protecting capital is even more important than making money.
Eight AM. Four days. A trillion dollars gone each time.
The pattern is too clean to be random and too precise to be panic.
This isn't a dump algo. It's a liquidity sweep. A coordinated removal of bids at the exact moment when European markets hand off to New York and the overnight traders are closing books.
Gold at 8 AM is the same as Bitcoin at 10 AM was last year. A window. A moment when the machine knows that human oversight is thin and leverage is thick.
The algo isn't selling into thin air. It's selling into known stop clusters. Into levels where margin calls trigger. Into the exact price points where the most pain concentrates.
Jane Street at work again is the easy explanation. But it's not the full one.
The full one is simpler and harder.
The market has learned that gold's rally was crowded. Too many latecomers. Too many specs. Too many people who bought because it was going up, not because they understood why.
The 8 AM dump isn't about destroying value. It's about transferring it. From the weak hands who bought at $5,400 to the strong hands who will buy at $5,000. From the people who need the price to hold to the people who need the price to move.
This is how bull markets correct when they're healthy. They shake. They scare. They flush out the people who weren't supposed to be there in the first place.
The difference is that in gold, the shake is happening at 8 AM with algorithmic precision instead of over weeks with human emotion.
Same result. Different mechanism.
The question isn't whether the algo exists.
The question is whether you're on the side that sets it or the side that gets swept.
The 8 AM dump is a feature.
Surviving it is a skill.
#BTC
4 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halving Rally
Approximately 42 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
And ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)
History has repeated in this respect
Now, Bitcoin is approximately halfway through its Pre-Halving Rally phase
In anticipation of the Halving, investors "Buy the Hype" in an effort to "Sell the News"
Short-term traders and speculators "Buy The Hype" several weeks before the Halving in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fuelled rally
Then these speculators "Sell The News" to realise that profit, contributing to a Pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself
2. Final Pre-Halving Retrace
After the Pre-Halving Rally has concluded...
A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a few weeks before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep
In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep
This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks and up to 77 days
3. Post-Halving Re-Accumulation
The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)
This period can last up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)
Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving
4. Post-Halving Parabolic Uptrend
Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)
It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All Time Highs
This phase tend to last just over a year (~385 days)
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
How Money Flows In Crypto
USDT/USDC
Bitcoin Pumps
Then Eth Pumps
Then High Caps Pump
Then Comes Epic Altseason
Then Smart Investors Take
Profit And Moves to USDT/USDC.
Then Again Bitcoin Pumps
Millennials are upset that Boomers bought houses in the 1970s for 40K USD, which are now worth 1 Million, 50 years later.
The same Millennials aren't lining up to buy Bitcoin at 40K, which will probably get to 1 Million in only 10 years.
#Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap 🔥
Quite the cluster sitting around $43K. Even though I still think $BTC will cool off for a while, if we were to see a move back to $43K to take out some late shorts, that would definitely be a level I'd be closely watching.