$KEEL has a realistic path to a 10x, and it is simpler than people think. It all comes down to leasing the power they already control.
Here is the math that gets you there.
KEEL controls a 2.2 gigawatt pipeline across Pennsylvania, Washington, and Quebec, with grid interconnections already in place.
That power is the entire asset. The whole business model is turning secured megawatts into signed leases that throw off long term recurring revenue.
Start with what a lease is actually worth. AI data center colocation runs roughly $150 to $200 per kilowatt per month. Take the three leases the CEO has committed to signing by year end. Panther Creek at 350MW, Sharon at 110MW, and Moses Lake at 18MW.
That is roughly 478MW of near term capacity. Leased out, that alone is somewhere in the range of $850 million to $1.1 billion in annual recurring revenue. On a company with a current market cap a fraction of that.
Now extend it to the full pipeline. 2.2 gigawatts fully leased at those same rates is north of $4 billion in annual recurring revenue. Data center operators with contracted hyperscaler revenue trade at 6 to 7 times sales.
Put a conservative multiple on $4 billion in recurring revenue and you land around a $30 billion company. From where this trades today, that is the 10x.
And here is why the path is simple, not complicated. KEEL does not need to invent anything.
They do not need a new product. They do not need to win a technology race. They already own the power. They already have the interconnections.
They just need to sign the leases, and the CEO has told the market the priority for this year is signing three of them.
Every lease that gets signed converts speculative power into contracted cash flow and re rates the entire pipeline behind it.
We saw $DGXX do exactly this with Cerebras. The first signed hyperscaler lease changes the whole story overnight.
Secured power. Grid connections in place. Three leases targeted this year. A 2.2 gigawatt pipeline behind it.
The path to a $30 billion company runs straight through those signatures. And they are coming.
กุก้ด่ามันประมาณแบบนั้นแหละ มันสวนมาว่า I don't need makeup เหมือนยูเน่าะ กุมองมันแปปนึง ก้เออจิง หน้าเหี้ยเหมือนนิสัยปานนี้ ควรไปศัลยกรรมหรือตายแล้วเกิดใหม่เพราะ even makeup can't save u ka จากนั้นระเบิดตู้ม ด่ากันมันสสส์
Time to connect some dots on $ONDS this evening.
$JPM hosted a call with the $AXON CTO this week.
A key takeaway was that counter-drone and aerial security for critical infrastructure is now being described as a “land rush” with no settled winner and heavy investment underway.
The note specifically highlighted data centers, logistics networks, and corporate campuses as emerging use cases, with recent drone attacks on Middle East data centers cited as the catalyst pushing US operators toward protective capabilities.
@CeoOndas responded to that note in a post of his own tonight.
His comment was that non-military markets are also booming and that dual-purpose models will be the winners.
This statement carries more weight than you might think…
Airobotics of $ONDS has been providing automated aerial security and data services at an $INTC semiconductor facility in Israel since 2016.
Yes, this is the same $INTC that President Trump & the US government took a near 10% stake in last year.
The system is FAA Type Certified and operates in automated BVLOS mode without an on-site pilot. Not to mention, Optimus is also Blue UAS certified.
This is close to a decade of operational history protecting some of the most critical infrastructure that exists in the age of AI.
*To be clear, the most recent contract renewal we are aware of for that $INTC relationship was disclosed in December 2024. We are not aware of a more recent renewal.
What the $JPM note describes as an emerging opportunity for the industry - perimeter security for critical infrastructure using autonomous drone systems - is a category $ONDS has already been operating in commercially for years.
Combine that with the defense side of the portfolio, and Brock’s framing of dual-purpose models becomes a description of the existing business rather than a forward looking aspiration.
My opinion: the market will soon catch up to $ONDS’ positioning that has been in place for quite some time.
Somehow, some way, $ONDS is always one step ahead.