Alec Bertina

International Security MA UEA (2022) | Some analysis written for @MilitantWire | OSINT Collection | International Security Researcher

[Dallas Analytics @dallas_analytic]

🚀 Confidential Documents Expose Why Putin’s 'Oreshnik' Flies Blind
Dallas Analytics reveals a critical vulnerability within the Soviet-designed GU-503 gyro unit inside the 'Oreshnik' guidance mechanism, causing the platform to deviate by tens of kilometres from its intended targets.
Consumed by political optics after the November 2024 Dnipro strike, Vladimir Putin ordered four additional missiles for 2025. To meet this rigid timeline, Russian manufacturing facilities completely bypassed standard quality-assurance protocols to avoid delaying the Kremlin's schedule.
✉️ Internal correspondence from the Michurinsk Plant 'Progress' reveals that it has completely lost the specialised calibration technology and cannot verify the gyroscope's precision metrics prior to final assembly. This manufacturing failure directly explains why subsequent Oreshnik missiles are erratically striking civilian garage cooperatives instead of assigned military targets.
🔍 Full investigation: https://t.co/GNLzPuqPPu
We have also expanded the list of our channels – you can now follow Dallas Analytics on Substack, Threads, LinkedIn and Instagram for further investigations and updates.

[Dallas Analytics @dallas_analytic]

🚨 Russia is preparing to significantly expand Mi-8 helicopter production. According to documents obtained by Dallas Analytics, the Kazan Helicopter Plant is scheduled to manufacture 72 Mi-8MTV-1 helicopters in 2026–2027 under Russia’s state defence order.
❗This figure is nearly twice as high as previous estimates of Russia’s production capacity and could allow Moscow to offset wartime losses sustained during its invasion of Ukraine. If achieved, these production targets could help restore Russia’s airborne assault and transport aviation capabilities to levels approaching those seen before the full-scale invasion.
📁 At the same time, the leaked documents reveal persistent weaknesses within Russia’s defence-industrial base, including dependence on engine and avionics suppliers, financing challenges, production bottlenecks, and growing reliance on state reserve funds to sustain military output.
What threat could these helicopters pose to Ukraine and NATO? How realistic are Russia’s ambitious production targets? And what do the documents reveal about the vulnerabilities of the Russian defence industry?
🔍 Read our full investigation: https://t.co/bpegXvN6cZ
We have also expanded the list of our channels – you can now follow Dallas Analytics on Substack, Threads, LinkedIn and Instagram for further investigations and updates.

[Militant Wire @MilitantWire]

ISKP Boasts January Bombing of Chinese Nationals; Threatens, Alongside Pro-IS Groups, to Increase Attacks Avenging Uyghur Persecution - by @LucasADWebber
https://t.co/pnat8MSB6j

[Dallas Analytics @dallas_analytic]

✈️ With planes breaking down and repair hubs facing insolvency, the Russian military is navigating a full-blown airlift crisis. It needs to move materiel, but its own aircraft increasingly cannot. The solution? Civilian aviation.
🕵️ A new Dallas investigation reveals how the Russian MoD co-opts commercial operators and joint-use aerodromes to bridge its logistical collapse. Primary evidence exposes these "civilian" fleets:
🇨🇳 Moving military cargo to China for sanctioned defence contractors
🇺🇬 Routing electronics from Uganda to supply Almaz-Antey
🇮🇳 Evading oversight to transport missile systems & warheads to India
Furthermore, the MoD is hiding military aircraft on the civilian registry to fly sensitive missions abroad disguised as ordinary commercial charters.
🔍 Read the full analysis here: https://t.co/GETRc1Mw4H

[ᐱ ᑎ ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᒍ @Andr3jH]

The one employed philosophy PhD right now

[Michael Dwyer @MikeDwyerMike]

'Iran is not a client of Russia’s. It is a state with its own revolutionary logic, its own regional reach and its own willingness to confront American power. During this war, by militarizing the Strait of Hormuz, it has demonstrated that it can generate effects that will be quickly and amply felt across the world.'
https://t.co/VvwlNiAISd
@NicoleGrajewski @HurstPublishers

[Militant Wire @MilitantWire]

Who is Ashab al-Yamin? Questions Abound for Mystery Terror Group in Europe - by @sadarlo1 featuring insights from @ColinPClarke and @PhillipSmyth
https://t.co/hWecpuB4W6

[Harold Chambers @chambersharold8]

Great work by @SaladinAlDronni placing IS activity in Azerbaijan into much-overdue context:
https://t.co/7YFHMSBzBF

[Paweł Wójcik 🦋 @SaladinAlDronni]

That would mark the beginning of real Islamic State West Africa plots campaign if it proves true in investigations (or IS comms, though they like playing dumb in recent months).

[Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA]

Leaked internal files from Moscow reveal that Russia’s ruling party, United Russia, keeps intelligence-style dossiers on its own politicians. They document corruption facts, criminal ties, and personal vulnerabilities, information used to manage Russia’s politics

Thread 🧵:

[Militant Wire @MilitantWire]

Islamic State-Linked NYC Explosives Attack Fails - by @chambersharold8

IS attackers likely read DIY manuals, may have had contact with technical experts online, and were probably influenced by the group's calls to target right-wing figures and protests
https://t.co/XrLYMcC0sO

[B-AREV @trip_to_valkiri]

Someone tried to "modernize" M1919A4 back in 2023 and it's definitely one of the worst things I have ever seen.

[Militant Wire @MilitantWire]

Kamikaze Drones Used by Pro-Iranian Militant Groups in Iraq and Lebanon - @war_noir
https://t.co/G7FWDOR1gQ

[Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love]

One Iranian drone hit the terminal building of Nakhchivan Airport, while another hit a school in the village of Shakarabad. Two civilians were reportedly injured as a result of the drone strikes.

[Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC]

It seems the missile defense systems (Patriot, THAAD, Arrow) for the most part are working to intercept the ballistic and cruise missiles, but the Shahed drones are managing to get through the layered defenses. The people who have the most experience with anti drone tactics having faced these Iranian Shahed drones that were provided by Tehran to Russia are the Ukrainians. Someone might want to call them.

[Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi]

The latest Ukrainian counterattack has drawn significant attention. The Ukrainians have claimed to liberate over 400 km².

There’s some sensationalism in the information space, as there seems to be some misunderstanding of what a liberated square kilometer here actually means. 1/

[Oliver Alexander @OAlexanderDK]

The amount of vibe coded “situation monitor” slop being produced these days is absolutely astronomical.

[GeoConfirmed @GeoConfirmed]

GeoConfirmed Iran.

Statement regarding our posts about the bombing of a girls’ elementary school reportedly resulting in the deaths of over 100 girls.

Because many readers still misunderstand our posts or how geolocation verification works, I will explain this as simply as possible.

1) The girls’ school was located next to a military base and according to multiple sources even within the perimeter of that base.

However, this does not make it a legitimate target under the Law of Armed Conflict, even if it was within the premises.

The school was not in Pakistan or Afghanistan, as some claims suggest. (because the location is GeoConfirmed)

The footage is not old.

In Iran, schools are open Saturday through Thursday. (https://t.co/p11mbeHA5Q).

Fact: The school, located in Minab, Hormozgan Province, Iran, was destroyed, based on the footage.

Geolocation of the school bombing: https://t.co/OVEne9QjZ0

-

2) The claim that the explosion was caused by a failed IRGC missile launch has no supporting evidence, at this time (!).

The widely circulated footage used to support this theory originates from a location approximately 1,300 km away from the school.

It is impossible that a missile failure visible there caused the bombing at such a distance.

At this moment, there is no proof that a failed missile launch caused the incident.

(See below or https://t.co/wxXNVLQITM)

-

Using logic.

Given the school’s position, next to and possibly integrated into a military facility, the more logical explanation is that the school was mistakenly targeted during an attack on the base.

A thorough investigation is required to confirm this assessment, or additional verifiable evidence must emerge to support alternative claims.

When conducting analyses, always consider the principle of "Occam’s Razor" (https://t.co/kqTtxc3WoX):

"When presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction and both hypotheses have equal explanatory power, one should prefer the hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions."

In this case, the only “evidence” for the failed IRGC missile launch claim has been proven false.

Therefore, there is currently no credible evidence supporting that theory.

Reminder:
OSINT, and reporting (journalism) in general, is based on the information available at the time an investigation is conducted. Therefore, analyses may change as new footage or evidence emerges.

[Alec Bertina @bertina_alec]

Should note the obvious exception is Israel that is not likely to be deterred by any of these ballistic missile attacks

[Alec Bertina @bertina_alec]

An observation from someone who is not actually claiming to have any expertise in the matter, but it would seem that rather than attempting to eliminate the actual threat from the US, these attacks are designed to hit its allies in order for them to put pressure on the US to stop

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Iran appears to have launched a major, coordinated ballistic missile attack on Israel, the UAE, and Qatar. Dozens of interceptions reported, with multiple impacts seen on streams.