Football Guy

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@benbbaldwin The 2026 Rams are so 2025 Chiefs coded

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@FFrealitycheck Ray and Scott’s takes this week don’t seem like very hot takes!

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@Dillon_Ebbs @YZR_Fantasy @jalenreagors You’re out of your mind if you think the media writ large has been too harsh on Hurts lol. People were putting him in top 5 convos after the won the Super Bowl!

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@UrProductSucks @benbbaldwin And a kick ass supporting cast

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@Dillon_Ebbs @YZR_Fantasy @jalenreagors Vibes of play vs media! They both get propped up by media & casual fans bc they’re on teams that win when both are either the weakest part or one of the weakest parts of their teams.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@benbbaldwin Which both make sense — if the Rams would be favored against any team in the NFL over the next few weeks they’re probably the best team in the NFL. It felt more malleable though.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@DumboffaPerc30 The honest answer is that past offensive performance is more indicative of future offensive performance than past defense is of future defense (offense is stickier) but these are also largely futures based ratings

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@Cakeazzy @DumboffaPerc30 There’s been exactly one year in his whole professional career that the chiefs defense has been better than the offense

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@NekiasNBA Maybe JJJ & Lauri together can be enough rebounding for a few weeks

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@dren_braves @grantmcauley Yeah the ball beats him by a fair bit no idea why he wouldn’t have thrown

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@wheatonbrando I think I’m slotting two of KC (Spags defenses get better as the season goes on; already been OK), Jacksonville, NE, Chicago and the Rams for those last spots.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@FantasyKash Mahomes also had a .288 epa/db (would’ve been 2nd to Purdy in the regular season) in those playoffs. I’m not sure the Vikings have someone who can turn it on and play at an mvp level for 4 games like that to win a SB.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@AlterdCoal94 @ItsRay_9 @TheReal_TWill Yes, both sacks and interceptions are usually shared blame depending on corcumstance. It’s hard to use just stats to contextualize these things! Trevor’s a fantastic QB and I agree I don’t think he’s far behind Burrow. They’re probably both there in that second tier.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@ItsRay_9 @BReeder88777 @TheReal_TWill That doesn’t make it a flawed stat. So many things go into impacting outputs: supporting cast, luck, opposing defense, game-script, etc.,
that’s why we have things like PFF grading (eugh) and film-watching kings & queens to tell us about the inputs.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@BReeder88777 @ItsRay_9 @TheReal_TWill And what was his batting average? We have much more comprehensive stats to compare QB performances these days. They were almost identical in EPA/Play & QBR — both were terrible in their outputs. Almost equally terrible.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@HopeSpringsATL @tipping_pitches That makes sense then. They seem to have good takes in other areas & there are legitimate reasons not to like the Braves as an organization but this specific team is and has been a fun group of players for years.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@tipping_pitches I forgot to mention Michael Harris who seems like an absolutely wholesome delight! They’re such an easy team to root for.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@tipping_pitches I’m surprised someone thinks this Braves team has heinous vibes. Acuna & Albies are some of the goofiest most likable players in MLB and I find Baldwin, Olson, and Riley very easy to root for. They’ve been a good vibes team to me for years (minus Ozuna specifically)

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@ItsRay_9 @TheReal_TWill Meant to say INTs are usually just over double as harmful, sacks roughly half as as harmful.

[Football Guy @bestballJ]

@ItsRay_9 @TheReal_TWill Interceptions are usually just over half as harmful as sacks so 9 sacks is worth about the same as 4 average interceptions (by epa).

Funny enough, Lawrence’s 4 INTs were -12.7 EPA while Burrow’s 9 sacks were -14.7 EPA. Bad QBing all around, Burrow slightly more harmful.