This is the best chart to visualize the extent of the dislocation in the crude oil market - ⚠️Not only crack spreads reman elevated, but now they are even moving in the opposite direction than crude oil prices
The reckoning is going to be brutal and a hell of a show
IRGC’s Tasnim Network: “Strait of Hormuz Must Remain Closed as Long as Israel Continues Its Aggression Against Lebanon and Violates Its Territorial Integrity
Beginning negotiations while Article 1 is being violated is a mistake and contrary to the Memorandum of Understanding.
Tasnim News Agency Political Desk: Under Article 1 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, must cease, and Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be guaranteed.
According to this provision, and based on the Iranian negotiating team’s explanation, the memorandum is effectively being violated as long as Israeli military operations continue and Lebanon’s territorial integrity has not been secured.
Furthermore, Article 13 of the memorandum stipulates that Iran–U.S. negotiations on a final agreement may begin only after the implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 has commenced.
Therefore, under the memorandum, as long as Israeli aggression continues and no measures have been taken to guarantee Lebanon’s territorial integrity, initiating negotiations on a final agreement would itself violate the memorandum. Moreover, strategic and political logic dictates that the Strait of Hormuz should not be reopened to ease pressure on the United States while Israel’s attacks and violations of Lebanon’s territorial integrity continue.
One crucial point that everyone, including Iran’s negotiating team, must remember is this: the Islamabad Memorandum between Iran and the United States is the official declaration and manifesto of the United States’ and Israel’s defeat in the war that began on 28 February 2026 (9 Esfand 1404). However, to secure future victories and avoid falling into an American trap, Iran must remain highly vigilant regarding the memorandum’s implementation and against any U.S. attempt to manipulate the timing of its execution.
Trusting the negotiators does not eliminate the need for close oversight to ensure that the memorandum is implemented correctly and interpreted in a manner that serves Iran’s interests, especially when dealing with what it describes as a deceptive and manipulative adversary like the United States.”
$TE: Quick heads up for folks. When I wrote about Freyr's pivot to T1 Energy back in December 2024, CFO Joseph Calio bought 130,000 and 550,000 shares on the open market
This signal of confidence was part of my writeup and a big reason why I went all in on T1 Energy
$TE: THE FUDDY PANZA 🤡 CLOWN SHOW CONTINUES
@FuzzyPandaShort conveniently excludes disclosure that CFO Joseph Calio received 422K shares from a 2024 RSU grant that vested, requiring 195k shares to be held to cover tax liabilities
The desperation is palpable as they sit under water on their $5-6 cost basis short position LOL
Form-4 disclosure:
(2) This transaction represents 195,776 shares of Common Stock withheld for tax obligations in connection with the settlement on June 12, 2026 of 422,476 RSUs that vested on June 12, 2026 (the second of three equal annual installments). The vesting of those 422,476 RSUs is described in Note 1 above.
I have a strong gut feeling that, 2 weeks ago, Trump was informed about oil inventories approaching critically low levels, forcing the price to snap back to reality because soon there won't be enough to fulfill all the demand.
Since then, he has done all he could to "reopen" the SoH, to the point he ended up accepting all "unacceptable" Iran's requests that have NEVER changed since April
Now the US government is rushing to reopen the SoH, aiming to restore the traffic back to the pre-war state. This is something that, objectively, is impossible to achieve because of the mines in the water, Iran's strong grip over it, the war damage that will take months to repair, and the shipping industry unwilling to venture within the strait till there is 110% certainty the conflict won't escalate again.
As I write these words, the Israeli army is still in Lebanon and has no intention to leave it. Objectively speaking, this means there won't be any official MoU signature between the US and Iran on Friday that starts the 60-day negotiation phase. Furthermore, Trump already said in a NYT interview on Monday that if he does not reach a satisfactory agreement with Iran, especially on the Uranium topic, he will resume the military campaign.
Yesterday, a friend told me, "The market isn't trading based on reality; it is just betting the house on Trump"
So far this week, there has been no meaningful pickup of traffic in the SoH despite Trump's rush to announce it was "fully reopened"
Buyers around the world are still sitting on the sidelines; winter restocking is even over a month late, and peak driving season is starting. India is already rationing fuel, and the same is starting to happen in Russia, in case you missed the news. Refining spreads remain close to the peak too, as a sign of how strong demand is.
This is the simple reality, and traders are sticking their heads deep in the sand to avoid seeing it betting on a Trump's "miracle", but the last time I checked miracles only exist in the Bible
$TE
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Tore André Flo. Named after the village he was born in.
And after Ronaldo.
Flo, Norway. Population: a few hundred. Mountains. And a valley where he played football with his brothers.
"The life in Flo isn't so varying."
Seven professional footballers in his family.
Tore André was the best of them.
Chelsea signed him for £300,000 in 1997. The bargain of the decade. Three seasons later they sold him to Rangers for £12 million. The most expensive Norwegian player in history at the time.
50 goals in three seasons at Chelsea. League Cup. Cup Winners' Cup. Earned the nickname Flonaldo after scoring twice in a 4-2 win over Brazil in a 1997 friendly.
June 23, 1998. Marseille. France World Cup. Group stage. Final game.
Norway vs Brazil. The reigning world champions. Norway needed a win to go through.
Brazil 1-0 up. Then Rekdal equalised from the spot. Then the 83rd minute.
Flo received the ball, held off his marker and slid it past Taffarel.
Norway 2-1 Brazil.
But he didn't just score. Minutes earlier he had won the penalty that Rekdal converted for the equaliser. He was involved in both goals.
The mountain boy from Flo had scored against the greatest football nation on earth at a World Cup, and won the penalty that changed the game.
Norway went through to the Round of 16. Lost to Italy 1-0.
He retired from the national team in 2004 to spend more time with his wife and four children.
76 caps. 23 goals. One goal against Brazil that will never be forgotten.
He went home to Norway. Founded a football academy in Berkshire. Returned to manage Sogndal where it all started. Now coaches Norway's youth teams.
In between he finished second on the Norwegian version of Dancing with the Stars.
A 6'4" Norwegian striker. Ballroom dancing. Of course he did.
Tore André Flo. Named after a village nobody had heard of. Known across the world for one goal against Brazil.
The streets will never forget. 🇳🇴