Zeriq

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Check out this as well.

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Bro check this out as well.

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Bro check this out as well.

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Suraj Industries

₹450cr (9x) FY27 guidance.

Q1FY27 run-rate: ₹30cr/qtr → ~₹120cr annualized
New 125 KLPD ENA distillery (going live H1FY27): ~₹250cr/yr revenue potential
That's already ~₹370cr before any further ramp-up.

VRV Foods stake hike 20%→50.03%: consolidates ~₹113cr of revenue not even in today's reported base
₹370cr + ₹113cr ≈ ₹483cr — lines up with the ₹450cr guide.

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Suraj Industries Ltd - FY27 revenue guidance is a 9x jump

This liquor bottler just went from a Rs 0.5 Cr EBITDA LOSS to a Rs 6.6 Cr EBITDA PROFIT in a single year — a 22% margin, from -6%.

Suraj Industries (SIL) was founded in 1992 as an edible oil company.

In 2021, it pivoted hard into liquor bottling. By 2025-27, it's trying to become a fully integrated alco-bev player: bottling + distilling + own brands.

Think of SIL as a "contract manufacturer" for the liquor industry — like a Foxconn, but for whisky and country liquor instead of iPhones.

It doesn't (yet) own the big brands. It bottles them for others.

Its biggest client: Rajasthan State Ganganagar Sugar Mills (RSGSM) — the state-linked player with ~30-35% share of Rajasthan's country liquor market.

SIL runs a fully automatic bottling line for them at Jodhpur under a BOT (build-operate-transfer) model.

But here's the twist: in June 2025, SIL signed on to bottle for Allied Blenders & Distillers (Officer's Choice, IconiQ White).

In June 2026 — it added Radico Khaitan (8PM Whisky) too.

Radico tie-up: sold 13,000 cases in its very first month, generating Rs 1.3 Cr in sales. Small, but it's a start — and a name-brand validation.

Then there's the subsidiary, Carya Chemicals (96% owned) — Rajasthan bottling + a brand-new 125 KLPD ENA distillery coming online.

ENA = Extra Neutral Alcohol. The raw material every liquor bottler needs.

Why does the ENA plant matter? Rajasthan needs 16-17 Cr litres of ENA/year. It only produces ~8 Cr litres in-state.

That's an 8-9 Cr litre SHORTFALL, plugged today by importing from other states at a Rs 7/litre premium.

SIL's new distillery (Rs 215 Cr capex, ~4 Cr litres/year capacity) is built to plug part of that gap — and management says it can add Rs 250 Cr/year in revenue once commissioned.

Target: H1FY27. That's basically NOW (we're already in August 2026).

Then there's VRV Foods — a Himachal Pradesh country liquor maker with an estimated ~50-55% market share in that state.

SIL owns 20% of VRV today... and has proposed raising that to 50%, making it a subsidiary.

Why does that matter? VRV did ~Rs 113 Cr revenue and Rs 5.4 Cr profit in FY26 — bigger and MORE profitable than SIL's own core business.

Right now it only shows up as a tiny "share of profit" line. If the stake hike goes through, the whole P&L changes.

Okay, let's talk numbers. Q1FY27 (Apr-Jun 2026) consolidated: Revenue: Rs 30 Cr (+282% YoY) EBITDA: Rs 6.6 Cr, 22% margin (vs a LOSS a year ago) PAT: Rs 4.3 Cr (vs a loss of Rs 1.27 Cr)

That is a genuine inflection.

Gross margin also jumped: 57% in Q1FY27 vs 35% a year ago.

That's not small. That's a structurally different, more profitable business showing up in the numbers.

But zoom out to the FULL YEAR, and the story gets messier.

FY26 operating profit: +Rs 3.03 Cr (vs -Rs 1.78 Cr in FY25) — improving ✅ FY26 net profit: -Rs 0.67 Cr (vs +Rs 4.01 Cr in FY25) — WORSE ❌

Wait, what?

The culprit: interest costs went from Rs 0.47 Cr to Rs 4.75 Cr in one year. Depreciation nearly tripled too.

The capex bill for all this expansion is hitting the P&L NOW, while the extra revenue is still ramping up.

And the balance sheet backs that up. Total borrowings: FY23: Rs 11 Cr (near debt-free) FY25: Rs 86 Cr FY26: Rs 175 Cr

That's a 15x jump in borrowings in 3 years. This company has gone from conservative to leveraged, fast.

Equity capital also more than DOUBLED in FY26 alone — Rs 15.8 Cr to Rs 33.5 Cr. That means real, meaningful shareholder dilution to fund the growth plan.

Free cash flow has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT years: FY24: -Rs 14 Cr FY25: -Rs 101 Cr FY26: -Rs 113 Cr

All funded by fresh debt + equity, not the business itself. This is a "spend now, hope to earn later" story.

And here's the number that should make you pause: ROCE (return on capital employed).

FY24: 7.6% FY25: 3.2% FY26: 1.25%

Falling for 3 years straight, even as the balance sheet nearly QUADRUPLED. Capital is deployed, not yet earning.

Now — the moat question. What actually protects this business from competition?

Honestly? Not much at the SIL-standalone level. It's a contract bottler. Low differentiation. Contracts, not brands, are the moat (for now).

The real "moat" in this group is VRV Foods' ~50-55% share in Himachal country liquor.

But SIL only owns 20% of that today. The moat is one associate-stake-increase away from being consolidated — not there yet.

Meanwhile, SIL's OWN brand portfolio (Nimboo Mastana, Hill Top, Black LEO Rum etc.) — the part with actual brand equity — saw volumes FALL 29% YoY in Q1FY27.

Growth is coming almost entirely from low-margin contract work, not owned brands.

Regulatory tailwind, though: Rajasthan's revised excise policy allows 8-9% IMFL price hikes, and licenses now renew for a full 4-year cycle — reducing the regulatory whiplash this industry is famous for.

Management team checks out on paper: Chairman is a CA with 35+ years in M&A/fund-raising. MD has 36+ years across edible oils and alco-bev. CFO has 33+ years in finance.

Experienced hands, at least.

Now, THE CATCH. Management is guiding for ~Rs 450 Cr revenue in FY27.

Current SIL operations did just Rs 50 Cr in FY26. That's being called ">9x growth."

Q1FY27 delivered Rs 30 Cr of revenue. That's roughly 7% of the Rs 450 Cr full-year target.

Yes, H2 is supposed to be much bigger (ENA plant + Radico ramp + possible VRV consolidation). But right now, it's still a PROMISE, not a delivered number.

Inventory days jumped from 16 to 90 in a single year. Working capital days swung from +329 to -17 YoY. Messy, and worth independent verification.

Valuation: At CMP Rs 66.4, trailing EPS (Rs 0.98) implies ~68x P/E. Expensive, especially with falling ROCE and negative free cash flow for 3 years.

Annualize the strong Q1 print instead, and it can look much cheaper — but that assumes the growth story actually lands.

So here's the real checklist: ✅ Operating leverage kicking in ✅ Some guidance already delivered (Radico, ABD) ❌ ROCE falling 3 years straight ❌ Heavy dilution + debt buildup ❌ 3 years of negative FCF ⚠️ 9x FY27 guidance largely unproven

Verdict: Interesting, not obvious. 🧠

Watch: (1) ENA plant commissioning date, (2) whether Q2/Q3 revenue actually tracks toward Rs 450 Cr, (3) VRV stake increase completion

This is analysis, not advice. DYOR. 🙏

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

❌ What I didn't like:

The unresolved fraud/forgery investigation
Falling RoNW despite rising profits
Wafer-thin margins with falling realizations
Large promoter OFS exit at zero-cost basis

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

Skyways Air Services IPO opens Aug 24, 2026. 🛫 A 40+ year old Delhi logistics company that just filed for a ₹583 crore IPO. Here's what you need to know before you apply — thread 🧵

[Zeriq @beyousourav]

✅ What I liked:

Clear #1 market position by volume
Best capital efficiency vs listed comparisons
Strong revenue growth trajectory
Sensible use of proceeds (debt-focused, not vague)
Real geographic diversification