DBT

working in Trad-Fi for last 20 years, crypto last 4, trying to create F- you money via this crazy crypto madness. Here to learn and make 💰

[Alex Hormozi @AlexHormozi]

What happens when you die:

They divide up your shit.

They summarize your life in 500-1000 words.

People who knew you less say sorry to people who knew you more.

Everyone eats, drives home, and wakes up the next day and goes to work.

Whatever you’re worried about won’t be in those 500 words.

You can dare greatly or not at all, but you’re gonna die either way.

Might as well squeeze every motherfucking drop out.

[Oasis Archives🍋 @OasisArchives]

Possibly Noel Gallagher’s best acoustic performance ever

[UK Back in the Day @UKBackintheDay2]

On this day, 28 years ago, The Verve released "Lucky Man"

[andzberg @andzberg]

This is the most important lesson i’ve learned leading and building teams.

Culture works like an immune system.

When someone’s behavior doesn’t match the culture, the group rejects it.

What took me years to understand is that,

Degradation spreads exponentially.
Improvement spreads linearly.

One low performer infects 3 people around them. those 3 infect 9.

Meanwhile 3 A players lifting 1 B player? That scales waaay slower.

Path of least resistance is real in team dynamics.

Simply bc,
complaining always beats ownership,
missing deadlines beats working until 6am,
excuses beat execution.

The moment you let one person get away with it, they’re not just underperforming...
they’re giving everyone else permission to do the same.

Seen this play out both in 7 yrs of military service and 5 yrs of business / tech

Completely different environments.
Identical human and team dynamics.

Once a team's ratio tips and you don’t have enough A players maintaining a constructive immune response?

The decay happens fast!

SO, when you identify B player behavior:
1. call it out immediately.
2. if no adjustment happens, cut instantly.

One of th most critical jobs of a leader is stopping exponential negative patterns from forming at all costs.

[Complex Music @ComplexMusic]

RIP Angie Stone 💔

[Columbus @columbus0x]

Understanding Smart Money

🧵👇

Imagine you're a whale in a small shitcoin.

If you sell, you nuke the chart, because there is not enough liquidity*.

So, what do you need to actually realize your paper gains? You need buyers - the famous exit liquidity.

How do you achieve this? Quite simple: Post bullish tweets about your shitcoin so that people buy and you can slowly dump until you've sold everything.

Now, scale it up. Think about Bitcoin or stocks.

If only there were something comparable to a Twitter channel to encourage retail investors to buy or sell...

Oh wait - you could buy a media conglomerate and drop news always at the right time!

For example, announcing the biggest recession of all time, so that retail sells and you can buy cheap. And then stocks and Bitcoin have a months-long rally.

But this is only imagination, right? Right? Well, go ahead and compare news and charts in 2022 & 2023.

If smart money wants to sell, they will create greed, because they need buyers.

If smart money wants to buy, they will. create fear, because they need sellers.

Money flows from the uninformed to the informed. Choose your side.

***

*But bro, if the market cap is 2M, there are 2M Dollars available, right?

No, far from right. Go to Dexscreener and compare market cap and liquidity. The liquidity is the important number for buying and selling, the market cap is only a parameter for valuation.

A liquidity pool typically consists of two assets, with one half being the specific token and the other half usually being either ETH or SOL, depending on the chain.

This means, for example, that a $2M market cap shitcoin with a liquidity pool of $100k would have $50k worth of the token and $50k worth of ETH (or another paired asset) in the pool.

To double the price of the token, you wouldn’t need $2M. Instead, you would only need to inject $50k into the liquidity pool to buy out enough tokens to push the price up.

This is because the price is determined by the ratio of the two assets in the pool, not the total market cap.

***

Follow these great accounts for more infos about smart money!

@MalepoCrypto
@TomNifty
@cryptocoinfi
@i_am_jackis
@BenjiGanar
@phoenix_cr47
@RvCrypto
@hooeem
@IamZeroIka
@altcoinist
@ParabolicPump
@AltPartisan
@CryptArchitect_
@yRedDogg
@AltcoinLevi
@mikroweller
@CryptoNagato
@wauwda
@AlphaSniper_
@fitforcrypto_
@AltcoinOutlaw
@algos_in_crypto
@fitforcrypto_
@KryptoInsider1
@Dctr_Boom
@Daitaro01
@VECTORCP
@0xHeatt
@traderpecker

[🎯 Master @Moneytaur_]

Whales are carefully constructing the narrative of a super-cycle, and a $100K Bitcoin would ignite global headlines, fueling maximum FOMO...on altcoins.

They know average investors won’t buy Bitcoin itself but will pour into altcoins instead - that’s where the real trap lies. If you’ve been holding solid positions from earlier days and stay disciplined, you’ll be fine. But those chasing the super-cycle hype are likely to pay the bill. My target for TOTAL2 remains unchanged, as does the likely bearish reversal at the levels I’ve shared on the USDT Dominance chart.

Regarding BTC Dominance, the consensus and “common sense” suggest liquidity will flow into altcoins. It’s all unfolding. I recall mentioning when the altcoin season and overall bullish momentum would kick off - right after the rate cuts, despite many fearing they would trigger a bearish outcome. Add to that Trump becoming POTUS, a moment I called: Trump'ump. This was alongside identifying the perfect $49K Bitcoin bottom, ensuring many of you are well-positioned to capitalize on this stage of the cycle.

However, when something becomes consensus among the herd, it’s a must to remain cautious. In a game as deceptive as this, nothing should ever be taken for granted. Stay sharp.

A significant market crash is unlikely before year-end. Things don't unfold in 1-2 days, but the 🩸🕰️ has started ticking. The timing is perfect to lure in new investors, and the surge in tax revenue serves as an added incentive to keep the game going.

My major long-term target for Bitcoin has been hit - a target I’ve stayed firmly committed to all year, despite countless replies questioning if I should adjust the timeline because “things look grim, don’t you think?”

It’s happened. My range of $91K to $115K has always been the plan, and this is where I begin scaling out of BTC to lock in profits. I’ll also allocate a % of those gains to existing spot positions - not to mix them, but to capitalize on the bullish momentum for faster spot trades. Discipline and no greed always win.

Whatever comes next, we can’t lose. We’ll either walk away with significantly more or with plenty, thanks to the precision of our plays over the past 2-3 years. Meanwhile, retail will be chasing and praying.

That said, the ♨️ has started. Stay sharp, stay grounded, and remember: the market rewards preparation, not greed. Sit back and enjoy the show.

[Pilot Investor @pilotinvestor7]

⚠️What is Stagflation?

Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by:

1. High inflation - Prices for goods and services rise rapidly.
2. Slow economic growth- The economy grows slowly or not at all.
3. High unemployment

Stagflation is an unusual and difficult situation because high inflation and slow growth are normally opposites. When the economy is growing fast, inflation tends to rise. When growth slows, inflation usually falls.

⚠️⚠️ Why is Stagflation Hard to Fix?

Normally, the Fed can:

- Raise interest rates to fight inflation, but this also slows growth
- Lower rates to boost growth, but this worsens inflation

With stagflation, actions to fight one problem tend to worsen the other.

#stagflation #Inflation #FED

[DBT @bgb01]

@KobeissiLetter @Moneytaur_ 👁️

[redphone ☎️ @redphone]

1/ When Edward @Snowden spoke at Bitcoin2024 last week, he asked a question that lodged like a tumor in my brain. To paraphrase:

“Does the world and the U.S. election feel normal to you?”

When he was a kid, he said... 🧵👇

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

$BTC left translated cycle - BTC back to 10k

Let's talk🥰

I can agree about a lower low after the 5 wave cycle since 2018, as economy enters a recession next year and FED lowers rates to refinance with cheap credit..

BUT

That cheap credit is gonna be a 2-3x $ print larger than the pandemic - so for the next 4-5 years stagflation theory I could not agree

S&P500 left translated cycles:

We had these cycles even on SPX, and as recession sets in next year, stimulus would hit the market 10x faster than pandemic stimulus checks (USDC thru crypto rails all over the world - we'll talk about this in 2025)

After a left translated cycle occured, the recovery was V-shaped!

SPX could go to $3500 and BTC could go to $10k - YES, IT COULD (see pandemic reverse engineering: SPX lower low $2330-$2100, BTC higher low $3100-$3800)

But if you want to project a left one on BTC, as in first picture, just imagine how the recovery would be on the hardest asset on the planet VS what it looked like on SPX (just imagine) - so again, A 5 YEAR LATERAL MOVEMENT FOR BITCOIN IS JUST A WET DREAM/HARD COPE

S&P500 vs Bitcoin correlation

Some people think BTC follows GOLD or other commodities, but the correlation with S&P is clear as day

This is the S&P chart for the last 24 years, compared not with a fading dollar, but a hard asset and THE M2 money supply (the one that matters)

We had a secular bear market (2000-2010), a stagflation decade after, and the missing piece is SPX going parabolic to $25.000 before a so popular Depression

Don't ask how I got to those targets, you're not ready😂

So if:
✅BTC still correlated with SPX
✅SPX about to go on a last euphoric leg up 'til the end of the decade
✅Left translated cycles are MDFKN BULLISH

How can you be bearish until 2030, EVEN IF WE HIT 10K?

Tag your left translated cycle bro, want to hear opinions😇

[🎯 Master @Moneytaur_]

USDT Dominance with perfect reversal at monthly OB, and TOTAL2 didn't lose PSL.

Gradually loading the 2nd run of the year in my opinion, which shall be of smaller magnitude + faster Vs the one between Q4 2023 > Q1 2024.

This doesn't mean up only from here as bottoms tend to happen with ⚡️ SL hunting before HTF reversal.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Who said crpyto lacks real use cases!

The blockchain is a wonderful tool to record for eternity all the dumb shit we did.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

Is the US economy falling?

1) 38 MONTHS OF CPI INFLATION ABOVE 3%

2) SLOWING GDP GROWTH AT 1.4% IN Q1

3) Jobs OVERSTATED in 2023 by 730,000
4) $2 trillion deficits
5) $34.8 tn NATIONAL DEBT - record

6) 1.5 MILLION Americans lost a job in 6 months 👇
https://t.co/YKUIvPmqXt

[Brandon Taylor Moore @LetsGoBrando45]

Bill Gates is most certainly a sociopath. ✅

This short documentary breaks it down real nice. 👍

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

A lesson that could open your eyes.

This is the chart of Nakamoto games, one of the most hyped coins of 2023/24.

And this is not surprising since the performance of NAKA has been insane, with a +6500% from 2023 lows.

One thing that always unites these types of price actions, is the loudness behind fundamentals that constantly intensifies as long as the price goes up.

During both late 2023 and early 2024 mark-ups indeed, a lot of shillers started to 🗣️ about this project with the community spreading the verb about “insane fundamentals, the future of web3 🎮” while smart money (that bought at 2023 lows) were slowly dumping it (alongside shillers that have been paid to promote it)

Take note: my aim is not to bash the project, just to explain cold facts.

The following harsh price action instead was dictated by negative news like: “Kucoin holds a big slice of supply, this is bad” or “Their games don’t attract people anymore”.

There’s always a narrative to justify prices going up or down.

📈? Revolutionary technology/future of sector.

📉? Outdated product/devs do something.

That being said, one of the most important aspects when the price is in a strong downtrend (instead of buying all the dips without common sense) is to look at HTF 🔑 levels.

Right here you can 👁️ the price testing the bullish OB and substantially return back to where the bullish origin point has started.

After having faced a - 60 % downtrend, this area offers a sensibly favorable R/R opportunity because price has swept its HTF imbalance and also because it is backed by a larger demand zone that finds its roots prior to 2024.

Therefore, if we contextualize this area to the fact that the market has still fuel in its reservoir, this provides a great potential opportunity.

Most charts are in the same condition as this one and it’s not about the tech, it’s just about the PA.

The hardest part for 90% of people is represented by a big obstacle split 50/50:

• selling when the price goes parabolic
• waiting for the price to return at HTF 💧 levels

This isn't the only way to make money and a 🔑 level doesn't always hold 100%.

Trading is about probabilities, but this “method” severely increases the chances.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Prior to the bitcoin ETFs the record speed for an ETF to reach $10b in assets was held by $JEPQ who did it in 647 trading days (nearly three years). $IBIT got there in 49 days, $FBTC in 77 days. Cool visual from @thetrinianalyst