UMI DEATH SPOT::The UMI Zebra crossing point has become a death spot.
This week Kimbugwe Najib was killed. A few months ago Senga Christine Nakalima was killed. Several others have survived with serious injuries and traumatic experiences.
Today adults need a guide to cross the road.
Is this how we’re supposed to live?
Who will make this road safe and save lives?
Does anyone care?
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Rental/Mizigo Investments vs a 10-year Treasury bond Invesment.
Earlier this week, @MukasaMulya initiated a discussion suggesting that rentals targeting lower-income individuals can outperform the current 10-year treasury bond investment. The numbers were computed and presented as per the link
The Rental Mizigo Project in Makindye consists of 4 one-bedroom units, each generating a current income of UGX 500,000 per month. The project is situated on a 45x85 Ndagano plot of land and would look like below.
(I ran the photo with him and we agreed on representation)
Assumptions for Real Estate Mizigo to develop its numbers.
1. All costs to be incurred in the investment total up to UGX 200 million. This includes payments to the rental owner, payments to the Buganda Land Board for title changes, and payments to the legal or broker team. This is important as it tracks the actual cash invested and will be matched to the exact amount to be invested in the bond market. (If you pay more than 200 million, you are in loss column)
2. Rental growth is projected at 4% per year. From my preliminary review with a few residents in these locations, rent hasn't been increased in the last 3-4 years, especially for long-term tenants. However, considering market dynamics, let's assume a 4% annual rental increase (but if reality is rent isn't growing by anything close to 4% per year, the bond is winning more)
3, Let’s also consider a full occupancy of the units with full payment of rentals by the tenants. (if somehow you have less occupancy and or tenants not paying, the bond is winning by much more)
4. Tax is 12% of the total revenue per year since this would be for individual rentals, its 12%
5. Other costs associated with maintaining these rentals are capped at 10% per year. This includes security, repairs, and all related expenses.
6. After 10 years, you can sell the property for 10 times the income at that point in time, after incurring repair costs of 10 million. The exit price is estimated to be UGX 328 million. (If after 10 years, for that kind of plot of land, you struggle to sell it by anything above 300 million, the bond would have won in a land slide)
Time value of money discounting rate of 5% based of the average inflation rate in Uganda
Having considered all that, the investment would look like this.
The Final Net Present value of land is 149 million with so much generous assumption but conservatively its around 90 million.
A 10 Year-Treasury Bond Investment.
Following this week's auction results, which saw interest rates in the primary market for long-term bonds reach as high as 17.5%, I reached out to my contacts in the market and obtained quotes for a 10-year bond at a 17% interest rate.
The numbers below are presented for an investor with UGX 200 million ready to invest in the bond market (the same amount as that spent by someone buying the rental mizigo mentioned above).
At a 17% interest rate, the investor would acquire a bond worth UGX 228 million having only paid 200 million, and their cash flows for the next 10 years would look like this. These cash flows are exactly matched in our discounted model.
Assumption considered are
1. Person has also just UGX 200 million to invest.
2. 10% Withholding tax on coupons
3. No compounding of coupons to match it with rental income.
4. Time value of money discounting rate of 5% based of the average inflation rate in Uganda
Having considered that, the results for a bond investor in the discounted cashflow model would look like the below.
Net Present Value of the bond holder is UGX 155 Million and if we go into compounding mood, that money could we much, much much more.
Verdict
The assumptions used in the rental project are generous but subject to change. They remain as is, with an annual rent increase or a 10% increase every three years, as is market practice. If, in 10 years, the person manages to sell the rentals for over UGX 320 million, their valuable investment would have yielded a net present value of around UGX 140 million. However, if rental incomes do not increase as projected or the sale value in 10 years is not near UGX 300 million, then the total value would not be as expected and conservative value would be around UGX 90 million.
The bond investment, however, is fixed income. The numbers presented are solid and can be locked in right now, ensuring returns for the full 10-year period. Even with that, the investor would have a net present value of UGX 155 million (UGX 6 million higher than the generous rental project) with less stress or complications even before a bond holder starts to compound.
Based on numbers alone, the treasury bond will provide a higher net present value than the rental Mizigo over a 10-year period.
Another important point to consider
However, focusing specifically on this Rental Mizigo project, such sizes of land (45*80 plot of land) only result in an Investor getting Ndagano agreement between the buyer and seller, allowing you to use the land but not obtain leasehold or freehold titles (titles start at 50*100 plots).
This means you cannot leverage that investment to get a loan from credit institutions (maybe money lenders but not banks of MDIs).
On the other hand, my UGX 200 million treasury bond can be taken to the bank to secure a loan, providing an added comparative advantage that makes treasury bonds a much better option and superior product in this scenario.
Happy Investing everyone.
Alex Kakande
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