SnowLi

[Carl Moon 🌙 @carlmoon]

WORST DAY OF MY LIFE

My life’s work has been taken away from me.

My YouTube channel was terminated yesterday, with over 600,000 subscribers.

Since 2017, I’ve uploaded more than 4,000 videos to The Moon Show, covering Bitcoin.

Building this channel has required years of relentless work, sacrifice, and dedication.

I’ve had the privilege of sharing my journey and analysis with an incredible community.

Yesterday, @YouTube took this away from me…

My team and I are doing everything possible from our side.

I urgently ask @TeamYouTube and @YouTubeCreators to manually investigate, help secure the account, and reinstate The Moon Show.

More than 4,000 videos and nearly a decade of my life are tied to this channel.

Please help me get it back.

RETWEET PLEASE!!!

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Every major US recession since 1980 was preceded by this signal

And it has just triggered once again

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

14/ Remember, tariffs are basically a tax on US companies

Firms can respond in 2 ways:
1) Pass the cost onto consumers by raising prices
2) Absorb it themselves and accept lower profit margins

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

16/ Put simply: US consumers are weak and can’t absorb extra costs

But the upside is that US corporations can

They’re in far better shape to handle the hit from tariffs

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

17/ US corporate profit margins are still at all-time highs

Even a 10–20% decline from tariffs would leave companies more profitable than any time in the past 20 years

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

18/ Historically, profit margins tend to drop 19% in the year before a recession

Today, we haven’t seen any decline yet

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

19/ Here's another important data point: CEO expectations.

The Conference Board also surveys corporate leaders on hiring, capex, and outlook

The latest reading shows that 64% of CEOs expect the economy to worsen in the next 6 months

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

20/ Now you would expect CEOs to usually have better visibility than most

The last 4 times this survey hit current levels were late 2022, early 2020, early 2009, and early 2001

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

21/ But if we look at what happened to the stock market after those readings, something interesting emerges:

3 out of 4 were followed by significant gains

CEO pessimism often marks the bottom for markets, not the top

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

22/ The key is that corporations still have plenty of buffer

If tariffs remain, they’ll might eat into profits over time, eventually triggering cost cuts and layoffs

But that process takes time

So while consumer and CEO fears are understandable, we think they’re premature

With margins still elevated, layoffs and recession risk remain delayed, even with potential tariffs

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

23/ Could we be wrong? Absolutely

If the data shifts, we’ll adjust our view

But for now, we see a resilient economy

And that means the stock market could stay resilient too

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

24/ If you want to track what we’re buying, selling, and our complete strategy week to week, subscribe to our service

Join today to get a 30% DISCOUNT for 4th of July

You can also view our track record for FREE at:

https://t.co/fAkuou9mPH

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

25/ Thanks for reading!

If you enjoyed this thread, please ❤️ and 🔁 the first tweet below

And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies

https://t.co/FFrH0V5Gf2

[Mark West @markwestwebsite]

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[Mark West @markwestwebsite]

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[Mark West @markwestwebsite]

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[Mark West @markwestwebsite]

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[Mark West @markwestwebsite]

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[Mark West @markwestwebsite]

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