BigMike

MLB K-Model + PrizePicks/Underdog props (Ks • SOGs • Receptions) | Tracked results + methodology

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/22: 6-2

POD Result: Andrew Painter – OVER 3.5 Ks✅
Next Best Bets: 3-2

Really solid day yesterday. Wish we couldve gotten Sandoval for our UD play, but unfortunately, didn't get lucky there. Will have today's out soon. #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/22

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/23: 3-1

POD Result: Tyler Mahle – UNDER 5.5 Ks✅
Next Best Bets: 2-1

Solid weekend for us. Only get 3x on the PP play because Miller Pushed, but we will take that. Will have today's this afternoon #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/23

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

we missed by one yesterday with Sandoval, let’s get one today #MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Next Best Bets:

Bryce Miller – OVER 5.5 Ks (63.5%)
Nick Martinez – OVER 3.5 Ks (61.9%)
Walker Buehler – OVER 3.5 Ks (61.6%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/23

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Tyler Mahle vs Brewers – UNDER 5.5 Ks (-154)

Probability of going OVER the line: 25.8%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 88
• Days since last start: 11.00
• Count Leverage Whiff Rate: 0.098

The model projects Mahle for 4.27 strikeouts, driven by below-average Stuff+ in a road start.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

@RazorsInsight Tailing both 🫡

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

My play for today’s MLB slate #MLBPicks #Underdog

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Next Best Bets:

Christian Scott – UNDER 6.5 Ks (28.4%)
Blade Tidwell – OVER 3.5 Ks (68.9%)
Patrick Sandoval – UNDER 5.5 Ks (27.2%)
Shane McClanahan – OVER 4.5 Ks (66.5%)
Brandon Young – OVER 3.5 Ks (67.1%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/fLmDYXM4Cw

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/22

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Andrew Painter vs Cardinals – OVER 3.5 Ks (-138)
Probability of going OVER the line: 71.6%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 102
• PSI+ Vertical Approach Angle: -5.51°

The model projects Painter for 4.87 strikeouts, driven by solid Stuff+ in a home start.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/21: 2-2

POD Result: Emmerson Hancock – OVER 4.5 Ks✅
Next Best Bets: 1-2 #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/21

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Here’s a play for tonight’s slate #MLBPicks #Underdog

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Next Best Bets:

Sean Burke – UNDER 6.5 Ks (31.1%)
Logan Webb – OVER 4.5 Ks (60.7%)
Connor Prielipp – UNDER 5.5 Ks (34.0%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/20

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Jacob deGrom vs Nationals – OVER 5.5 Ks (-125)
Probability of going OVER the line: 62.4%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 109
• Pitching+ rating: 118
• PSI+ vertical approach angle: -4.42°​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The model projects deGrom for 6.45 strikeouts, driven by strong Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings in a home start.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Today’s K Model Pick of the Day:

Emerson Hancock vs Cubs – OVER 4.5 Ks (-151)
Probability of going OVER the line: 65.8%

Model Insights:
• Stuff+ rating: 101
• Opp Z-Swing%: 65.6%
• PSI+ Vertical Approach Angle: -5.45°

The model projects Hancock for 5.60 strikeouts, driven by solid Stuff+ and strong opponent swing rates in a home start.

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/21

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/CgtIXv76pB

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

⚾ K Model Recap 08/20: 2-2

POD Result: Jacob deGrom – OVER 5.5 Ks ✅
Next Best Bets: 1-2 #Gambling𝕏 #MLBPicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

K Model MLB Picks - 08/20

Thread: Today’s POD + Next Best Bets

Full daily sheet + methodology → https://t.co/kHFOHArMcf

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Here’s a play for today’s MLB slate #MLBPicks #UnderdogFantasy

[BigMike @BigMikeG99]

Not sure why it’s not letting me do this as a reply so we will try as a regular tweet.

Next Best Bets:

Gavin Williams – UNDER 7.5 Ks (28.4%)
Ian Seymour – UNDER 5.5 Ks (28.9%)
Grayson Rodriguez – OVER 4.5 Ks (64.1%)

Full reasonings + season tracker → https://t.co/fLmDYXM4Cw

#MLBPicks #PrizePicks