BigMurf

God as corner stone. Happiness is to avoid observer effect and herd mentality. Test the foundation not the logic. Certainty is a sedative. Go slow when pushed

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🛢️🚨Shell, in a single day:

-Pauses its $3B share buyback.
-Prepares to sell $1B of offshore wind farms.
-Pushes toward closing a $16.4B gas acquisition, its biggest deal in a decade.

That's one company telling you its thesis.

💰The deal:

The ARC Resources acquisition is Shell's largest since BG in 2016 and the logic is geographic.

ARC's gas sits next to Shell's fields feeding LNG Canada (Shell: 40%).

LNG Canada ships to Asia without touching Hormuz, Suez OR Panama. The shortest safe route on the map.

Why Shell needs it?

Shell's quiet problem are aging fields and dwindling reserves.
Analysts said it needed a big discovery or a big deal.
It chose the deal paid 75% in shares, at a 20% premium.

When a supermajor pays up with its own equity, it's telling you which assets it thinks outlast the cycle.

Same day: wind farms for sale, India renewables under review, buyback already cut from $3.5B to preserve cash after war-related strain.

Under Sawan, Shell isn't an "energy company" anymore. It's becoming a gas-and-LNG machine with an oil business attached.

Follow the full year: Gunvor buys US shale gas.

Shell signs in Venezuela, blocks rivals at Browse, now $16.4B for Canadian gas while selling wind.

The biggest players have stopped debating the transition's pace.

They're positioning for a long gas era.

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

@BrettErickson28 Hahah go check uae source. Real news updated

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

For all the people spreading fake news here you go

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

UAE says no frozen Iranian assets released, transferred or moved through it - statement

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

So many accounts just reposting news without real sources. If you’re wrong at least take down the post we’re all wrong but if you’re wrong consistently time and time again just go sit and the corner and be quiet

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

@BrettErickson28 @Joyce_Karam What’s your source
Grok says no confirmation of uae sending 3 billion. Not from Iran or Pakistan or UAE

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

And we still pretend there’s potential for a deal.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN'S ARAQCHI: SOVEREIGNTY OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BELONGS TO IRAN AND OMAN

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

To quote this guy is ridiculous he’s fed into the bs in the past. He’s very likely a us/israel asset

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: Commitments made must be commitments kept, no ifs, no buts, no excuses - post on X

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

@BrettErickson28 Dude there’s no way they give up the strait. It’s their only leverage

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

If there is a deal with Iran which I’m skeptical of because it would require Iran to control the strait. The control of the strait by overran will put a floor under oil as new risk premium is priced in. Even if no disruption occurs fair value rises because probability/weighted risk rises $uso $dvn $oxy $exe $lng

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

You have to go take a look at open interest on the options chain for any of the oil producers, I’m watching DVN look at July 17 calls vs puts

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

When’s the last time we’ve seen a move like that on the daily with xle/uso

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

It’s my belief that oil price may lag but the earliest signal of a true rebound is when oil proxies stop confirming downside and start diverging bull $dvn $oxy

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

Divergence between XLE and USO will be the first sign of a buy signal for oil. That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

Oxy lottos broke even, I can’t even believe it. Straight dumb luck

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

Yesterday did some buying. Primarily commons exe and oxy with size. Some options for dvn 7/17 50 calls premium was in the 0.50s. Lottos 1dte which I cashed out half yesterday so will be a break even after open. Today if oil pulls back further will be looking to add 8/21 50s and or 7/17 45s with size.

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

While oil bulls getting margin called my confidence level increasing. Got to have the right oil proxy with the right time frame. Commons only so you can manage risk and wait for supply demand to find price. On the oversold positions I get leveraged with calls ntm, take profit!!

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

Get your popcorn ready!!!!!!

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

US markets have clearly been a matter of national security. Passive investing has helped hold up price. But never has their been a situation where 2trillion ipo hitting markets at same time were trying to hold yields down through suppressing oil prices. All following another fake Iran deal

[BigMurf @bigmurf58]

Just speculation but this would give them the ability to give real commentary on oil markets while maintaining optics

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

SHELL HAS PAUSED BUYBACKS AND WILL INCLUDE THEM IN THE 2026 PROGRAM, PENDING BOARD APPROVAL.

[Sulaiman Ahmed @ShaykhSulaiman]

BREAKING: TEHRAN WILL NOT SURRENDER CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN ANY DEAL WITH THE US

- Iranian Media

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN'S IRNA: UNDER THE MOU WITH U.S, IRAN MAKES NO COMMITMENT REGARDING THE TRANSFER OF MANAGEMENT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ || THE FUTURE ADMINISTRATION OF THE STRAIT WILL BE RESOLVED AS A REGIONAL MATTER THROUGH DIALOGUE AND JOINT DECISION-MAKING BETWEEN TEHRAN AND OMAN || NO AGREEMENT IS MADE REGARDING THE NUCLEAR FILE IN THE CURRENT MEMORANDUM