Don't miss this week’s Fireside Dev Hang:
A Starstream demo from @SebastienGllmt, an @OpenZeppelin contracts showcase, content bounty updates, and live community Q&A
If you’re building on Midnight, come tune in:
🕛 Wed, Dec 3 @ 5:30 p.m. UTC
https://t.co/GmCFw92sR6
The Cardano Critical Integrations Budget is receiving overwhelming support.
That is genuinely encouraging, and at this point, it is almost certain that the proposal will pass regardless of what happens next. Still, I would like to openly discuss a few possible negative scenarios—not because I believe they will happen, but because considering them has value.
To be clear, I truly hope these scenarios do not occur, and the numbers I mention have no firm basis. I also do not have any clear alternative plan that would avoid such outcomes, nor can I confidently say there is a better use of treasury funds. The community and many delegators probably want these integrations. Even within the Japanese community, about once every one or two months, someone asks for exactly these types of features.
However, before we celebrate, it may be worthwhile to think about what the worst-case outcomes could look like. I am not an expert in these fields—so I expect domain experts to correct any misunderstandings I may have.
While I acknowledge the possibility of these pessimistic scenarios occurring, I bet on the high possibility of a more positive scenario occurring, and voted YES for the Budget.
If the founding entities, Midnihgt Foundation, and INTERSECT could disclose the target figures they are assuming for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it would be helpful in making a final decision on DRep's TW governance actions.
1️⃣ Stablecoins / Oracle Integrations
A major global oracle provider begins supporting Cardano, enabling stablecoins such as USDC.
USDC successfully launches. We see around 30000 USDC-related transactions per month (A slightly higher number of transactions than the USDA) and 20M ADA worth of TVL added.
But almost all activity consists of DeFi liquidity provision or deposits/withdrawals from centralized exchanges. To cover an annual maintenance cost of 10M ADA, the treasury must liquidate 10M ADA each year.
Over time, frustration grows:
“Why isn’t the community using the USDC we worked so hard to onboard?”
By 2029, the Cardano community decides to stop paying for USDC maintenance. Altogether, 90M ADA (or 160M ADA if we include the founding entities’ internal spending) was used to support the integration, resulting in roughly 1,000,000 total transactions.
2️⃣ Institutional Wallet & On-Chain Analytics Platform
Cardano launches a feature-rich institutional wallet with powerful capabilities.
But surprisingly, only seven organizations end up using it—four of which are Intersect, IOG, CF, and the Midnight Foundation.
It turns out that institutional investors were not asking for multifunctional wallets or advanced infrastructure. What they actually wanted was custody services—someone else to operate everything for them and assume liability.
In parallel, Cardano releases a sophisticated analytics platform, effectively a superior version of CExplorer, AdaStat, and TapTools. It can identify wallets linked to sanctioned jurisdictions, trace community funds, expose wrongdoing, and even make it easier to coordinate with law enforcement.
However, institutional investors continue relying on analytics tools developed by their trusted custody providers. Not a single institution decides to buy additional ADA or assets because Cardano has its own advanced analytics platform. Institutions do not want to analyze risk themselves—they want professionals to handle analysis and take responsibility if something goes wrong.
3️⃣ Cross-Chain Bridges
Following solutions like Wanchain, Cardano launches another bridging service.
Cross-chain transfers between Cardano and other networks average around 500–2000 transactions per month, mostly from users chasing higher yields on protocols like Liqwid or Minswap.
A few dozen to a few hundred retail investors benefit.
However, not a single enterprise is willing to take on the risks associated with bridging across chains.
\ $NIGHT エアドロ記念/
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