infliction points in macro crypto markets are where the $PEPE's and $WIF's are born, billion dollar on chain runners
there are asymmetrical risks to rewards after a year of slow bleed and 3 months of summer chop throughout the most bear news headlines involving crypto
your goal as a trader on chain is to risk according at these key infliction points. if done correctly, its arguably the most important trade in a trader's career
the difference between hitting a 10x or 100x at the start of this cycle vs later means that same capital compounds into an even greater 10x or 100x down the road, into a cumulative 10,000x
i know this may seem a little goofy, unrealistic, impossible, but in reality its actually safer to be taking risk now than to be taking risk towards the end of the cycle. that's when the games are solved, that's when the metas have been played though, that's when the upside shallows in comparison to the downside in taking a trade, massively effecting EV
i leave you on one of my favorite @GiganticRebirth quotes
The market turns green for few days and suddenly the timeline is euphoric again, everyone posting their gains, everyone an expert.
Let me offer a different, more useful take: how to make the most out of the next 12 months.
First, understand where we are. This is the very beginning, not the end. When the timeline gets loud you assume it's a top signal, but the real top is when your barber, your Uber driver and your mom are asking which coin to buy. We are nowhere near that.
The single biggest mistake you can make right now is letting your bear market scars make your decisions for you.
After more than a year of everything bleeding, your instincts are broken. Every green candle feels like the top. Every 2x feels like a gift you need to grab before it disappears. So you sell, you take the small win, you feel relief, and then you watch the thing you sold do another 10x without you.
That's not risk management. That's just bear ptsd, and it will cost you this entire cycle.
In a bear market you're rewarded for caution. In a bull market you're rewarded for conviction. The hardest part is flipping your brain from one mode to the other at the right time, and most people flip far too late.
A few things that actually help:
Hold your highest conviction positions through the volatility. Your winners can run longer than you might think. Don't rotate out of a 3x into some "cheaper" play and miss the 20x.
But holding doesn't mean never taking profit. Have a plan for both directions before emotion decides for you. Sell on a plan, never on fear.
Trust the teams that shipped through the entire bear. Be far more careful with the ones that only appeared last week.
And accept that you will miss things. Coins you looked at will 50x without you. Let them go. Chasing what you missed is exactly how you buy tops.
You survived the longest bear market, which was the most difficult part. But now itโs time to make the most out of it.
Having said that, enjoy it. You earned whatโs ahead of us.
At current market conditions, most projects efforts should be focused on visibility, hype and price performance
Bull market - people buy loudness, nobody cares about details
Think. If you are a trader DYOR