Billy Brause

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@tsavo_ke No water in Tsavo Roysambu for days

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@tsavo_ke More than 40 hours without water at Tsavo Roysambu.
No supply, no timeline, no accountability.
Leaving residents without water is a fundamental failure — unacceptable for any residential complex.

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@GuntramPross Oh gott ist das peinlich

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

Telepolis - Iranian Missile Production

The Telepolis article written by Lars Lange is of high quality when it comes to Iran’s missile production capacity and its stockpiles. I estimate that today the Iranian industry is capable of producing between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles per year, across various ranges and models.

“The Iranians deliberately reduced the rate of drone launches during much of the war, never exceeding a fraction of their production capacity, and continuously refined their tactics, shifting from mass attacks to targeted strikes with increasing success rates against infrastructure and defense systems.”

“Considering a production capacity of up to 217 ballistic missiles and 10,000 drones per month, Iran has probably used only a fraction of its real arsenal so far, assuming that Western estimates of production capacity are at least minimally accurate.”

https://t.co/Q9mgGCVoR2

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

https://t.co/3wEI0T8BQn

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

https://t.co/9wnwvfadx3

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

The Nuances of Iranian Asymmetric Warfare on Land, Sea, and Air

Its biggest challenge remains detecting these operations in time without relying on medium- and long-range radars. That is the real limitation of Iran’s current asymmetric air warfare tactic.

We often struggle to understand asymmetric warfare. The common idea of war is simple: you hit the enemy with everything you have, as efficiently as possible, aiming for a quick victory.

That is the concept of conventional war, which gives superpowers and large, modern armies a massive advantage, because a direct, short-term clash tends to devastate a smaller force.

Asymmetric warfare works differently. It is based on lure, lure, and lure again, and only then ambush. The goal is not a quick victory, but to wear down the adversary through attrition, targeting economic, political, and psychological pressure much more than pure military destruction.

In Iran’s case, its resilience and missile-based attrition strategy clearly aim to erode domestic support for the U.S. government, increase pressure on Gulf and Asian allies, and generate political and economic stress in Europe, including through inflation.

All of this is executed through tactical means that serve multiple strategic axes, all converging to create an environment of stress and chaos for Trump.

This entire approach operates under well-defined doctrines of asymmetric warfare at sea, on land, and in the air.
When we see the U.S. Navy stationed 700 km off the Iranian coast, many people ask: “Where are Iran’s anti-ship missiles?”

Anxious American politicians even claim that “everything is under control” and that the ships can safely advance.
Can Iran attack those ships? Yes, it can. But it chooses not to, at least not yet.

Those ships, operating at 700 km, are already at the limit of the F-18’s combat radius, the main aircraft on American carriers. And they are obviously well within Iranian missile range.

During the conflict with the Houthis, the Yemenis launched Sayyad/Quds-Z0 missiles with an 800 km range. Today, they already speak of Palestine-2 and Quds-4 versions that easily exceed 1,000 km.

If the Houthi arsenal is essentially Iranian technology, what is the real range of Iran’s anti-ship missiles today? It certainly goes well beyond 700 km.

But asymmetric warfare is not a 50-meter sprint. It is a carefully planned marathon. The Iranians know that the critical point is maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz. That’s why they try to lure the ships closer, a bait the U.S. Navy has so far refused to take.

Join my Substack to read full article:
https://t.co/DdUEIL51Ed

[Julien Benda @canthavepudding]

Kaja Kallas

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

https://t.co/9EtQZttZ8w

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

https://t.co/CiWzLTybxn

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@Krieg2026 When was that?

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@pati_marins64 https://t.co/6vzw94YU0B

[Arab-Military @ashrafnsier]

🇮🇷🚫🇺🇸 مجلة ذا أتلانتيك:

الخبر السيئ هو أن إيران تمتلك سلاحًا أشد فتكًا من إغلاق مضيق هرمز: القدرة على تدمير البنية التحتية للطاقة في غرب آسيا بأكملها.

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@BinsaeedRashid Yes please

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@IbrahimJalalYE You host us troups.

[Jostein Hauge @haugejostein]

Since WWII, the US has orchestrated or backed more than 100 regime-change operations in foreign countries.

It has also acknowledged using military force in more than 70 countries during that time.

As of 2023, the US had a total of 902 active military bases abroad.

Why all this violence? The US government has mostly claimed they are spreading “freedom and democracy” around the world. But if that was the case, the US wouldn't be providing military assistance to more than half of the world’s dictatorships — which it does.

US interventions abroad have primarily been about destroying and destabilising countries that do not subordinate themselves to US interests.

The US is not a force for global peace and stability; it is a force for destruction and violence.

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@Krieg2026 These appear to have been empty ammunition bunkers.

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@GeromanAT Military Summary Channel on YouTube
https://t.co/o7GYc8kphA

[Billy Brause @billybrause]

@pati_marins64 The video is it an intercepter drone or a missile?

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

IRAN IS AT WAR WITH NINE COUNTRIES SIMULTANEOUSLY AND NOBODY HAS SAID THAT SENTENCE OUT LOUD

Iran launched 315 ballistic missiles and 294 drones across the Persian Gulf on February 28 alone according to Defence Industry EU aggregating official reports. Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq, and Israel have all absorbed Iranian ordnance since Operation Epic Fury began.

Nine sovereign nations struck by a single state in 72 hours. No country has conducted simultaneous military operations against this many sovereign targets since the Second World War.

The UAE Ministry of Defence reported intercepting 135 of 137 ballistic missiles and 195 of 209 drones launched at Emirati territory, per Hindustan Times. Thirty-five drones penetrated and fell causing material damage. Bahrain and Qatar intercepted most incoming salvos according to the BBC citing local authorities. Kuwait International Airport was struck according to Breaking Defense. The Fairmont Hotel in Dubai took damage. Jebel Ali port, handling 40% of UAE trade, showed smoke on satellite imagery. Four killed and over 100 injured across the Gulf according to the New York Times.

The interception rate headlines read as success. The math underneath reads as catastrophe.

A Patriot PAC-3 interceptor costs approximately $4 million per round. A THAAD interceptor runs $12 million. An Iranian Shahed-136 drone costs an estimated $20,000 to $50,000. Iran is forcing Gulf states and the United States to spend $4 million to destroy a $30,000 drone. At 209 drones against the UAE alone, the interceptor expenditure for a single day against a single country approaches $800 million in munitions cost. The Houthi campaign in the Red Sea demonstrated this arithmetic over 18 months. Iran just compressed the same cost-exchange crisis into a single weekend across nine nations simultaneously.

And the interceptor stockpiles are finite.

The United States produces approximately 500 Patriot PAC-3 missiles per year. Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have been scaling production since the Ukraine war depleted allied reserves. The Gulf states collectively expended hundreds of interceptors in 72 hours. Trump told reporters the war will last four to five weeks. The production rate cannot replenish what four to five weeks of sustained Iranian barrages will consume. The math is not classified. The math is arithmetic.

This is the strategic logic behind Iran’s scattershot targeting. The IRGC is not trying to destroy Bahrain. The IRGC is trying to empty every interceptor magazine between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. Every Patriot round expended on a Shahed drone is a Patriot round unavailable when the next salvo of Ghadr ballistic missiles arrives. Every THAAD interceptor fired at a cruise missile is a THAAD interceptor that cannot protect Riyadh or Abu Dhabi from the volley after that.

Iran cannot win the air war. Iran lost air superiority on Day One. But Iran does not need to win the air war. Iran needs to exhaust the ammunition supply of every air defense system in the theater before the war ends.

The drones are not weapons.

The drones are economic warfare disguised as kinetic warfare.

And the magazine is draining faster than the factory can fill it.

The video shows the scale of the latest attacks in Bahrain today!

https://t.co/BrzGRrU3VW