Mike Holden

Football Decision Architecture — better decisions through pattern recognition, cultural psychology and probability thinking. World Cup 2026 research now live.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

https://t.co/UStoFCQS4S

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

Cameroon at Italia 90 didn't win because they were organised.

They won because they made Argentina panic.

Two players challenging for balls simultaneously. Brutal and endearing. Utterly chaotic.

Twelve fouls on Maradona, the flying boot on the third attempt to stop Caniggia.

The chaos wasn't Cameroon's alone. It was the panic they created in teams that expected to be comfortable.

That dynamic — the underdog who weaponises the favourite's discomfort — runs through every World Cup I've studied.

Six sub-Saharan nations at 2026. The numbers say only Senegal should progress.

Don't be too surprised if one or two others cobble together something unforeseen.

Full piece: https://t.co/4OshLJVVn5

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

At Mexico 86, Maradona's decisive contributions came in two specific windows across two knockout games.

England quarter-final: 51st minute, 56th minute.
Belgium semi-final: 53rd minute, 61st minute.

Bang-bang. Game over. Both times.

This in a tournament where heat was slowing everything down and second-half goals were well below the 40-year average.

The greatest player in the world was consistently at his most brilliant in one very specific 15-minute window. Every single game.

You can join the dots. Or you can leave them unjoined.

Either way, it's the first thing I look for when building a research framework: not what happened, but when it happened, and whether the pattern holds.

That question runs through everything I've built for 2026.

Full piece: https://t.co/Sw5USUqJsL

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

I’ve generally been sceptical of whether it’s really worth all the effort, but anyone niching down for this long knows exactly what they’re doing. Put your mind to anything for 12 years and you’re seeing things other people wouldn’t know to look for.

[luke @louorns]

Our man Tonda Eckert has been James Bond for nearly as long as Roger Moore

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

@Doyley1208 Yeah, think you’re right

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

Anyone else of the mind that Pep is having serious second thoughts?

He made the decison months ago. The same rumours have been doing the rounds all season.

Everything set up just the way he wanted, but Khaldoon surely planting the seed that it's never too late to change your mind.

Now the whole thing is real. He's missed out on the title and is trying the emotions on for size.

Major FOMO. On a scale you or I probably can't imagine.

The story has broken now. New stand ready for his name to go on. And still no official announcement.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

@nickgoff79 Think it’s a hiding to nothing whoever goes next, so Maresca at least knows what continuity looks like on the inside and he’d be an easy fall guy in 12-18 months while seeing how Kompany’s Bayern tenure plays out.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

@cousinbenson Brilliant. My Nigeria bet was Ladbrokes (Parkside) too. If they hadn’t scored that late goal, I’m pretty sure I never would have found out about the dead heat rule and wouldn’t have collected.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

https://t.co/UStoFCQS4S

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

What an interview!

[The Minstermen Forum @TS_Minstermen]

Josh Stones on TalkSport…

103rd-minute title winner ✅
Weekend bender ✅

An interview for the ages 😂😂

#YCFC | York City FC 🔴🔵

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

You gotta hand it to him. The guy knows how to get a fan base onside

[BBC Sport Bristol @bbcbristolsport]

Steve Evans in the Thatchers!

Rovers scored a 4th goal just as he joined supporters.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

@Phemmy1010108 @FootballEra_ Ha. The first 12 months with Pep as your boss is a lot to contend with!

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

Some truth to this. Recency bias in full effect. A Premier League great who’s short on personal accolades is standing out on a title run-in at the same time as announcing his departure in the summer. All the ingredients are there for POTY.

[Jaggs @jaggstalkssport]

Bernardo was shit for the first 28 games of the season 🤣 but suddenly he's in POTY conversations. The seeding is insane.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

The more Elliot Anderson stuff pops up on my timeline, the more I’m starting to think this is low-key title mind games from a media department that knows exactly how the Arsenal culture will react to the idea that competing with City is impossible.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

Now imagine being a City fan, on a day of high jinks, the lads about to lift the Championship title, and you're holding a slip that says 'Stuart Pearce to score the last goal at 22/1' that pays for a nice trip to Kardamena...

[Stu’s Football Flashbacks @stusfootyflash]

On Stuart Pearce’s 64th birthday, a reminder of his final match as a player in 2002.

Stuck on 99 career goals, an injury time penalty is given at Maine Road. Dave Beasant even tells Pearce he’s going to stand still.

The scene is set to retire in style…

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

After 10 months working inside professional football, I'm back.
The World Cup starts in 51 days. I've been building something for it.
More this week. Glad to be back.

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

@ItsKieranDrew Courage is the middle ground between cowardice and recklessness

[Mike Holden @binaryfootball]

@thedankoe Ti/Ni. Sleep first, Play last.