Biotech Runner

I love biotech | I also love to run | Investor | Finance | Favorite marathons: Chicago, Berlin, Tokyo, Cape Cod, NYC

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

Roche acquires PathAI
$750M UF + $300M milestones

To me, this makes much more sense than drug discovery

I question the utility of the platform once owned by Roche (à la FMI or Flatiron) but at least the price is not outrageous

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

$NVS acquires Excellergy for $2B for it's allergy business

Private company but glad to see deals still happening despite Iran war

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

$NVS acquires pan-mutant‑selective PI3Kα inhibitor SNV4818 from Synnovation

$2B upfront + $1B milestones

Takes them out of running for $CELC and probably $OLMA ? Unless you go for a triplet in 1L?

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@Sanctuary_Bio Israel helping US open Strait of Hormuz, Brent down to $105

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

US 10-year yields below 4% 👀

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@adamfeuerstein Hope it's good news Adam

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@lfholt Always molecule specific risk but last main catalyst before OPERA-01

Funny thing is, if gire hits, I think mgt will want to flip over their Ph3 card (as in not sell) but I suppose that all depends on price...

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

With $XBI nearing 130 and macro uncertainty (JGB yields/flight to gold) figured it's prudent to take some risk off the table

Keeping investments in 2 buckets:

1) Commercial: clinically derisked, (continued) execution outweighs cost of capital concerns $mdgl $bbio $cytk

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@seedy19tron 3) QD vs BID less an issue if only for fixed duration

As an aside, this would be similar to Rituxan where you have 6-8 cycles in DLBCL, until progression in FL/CLL, and every 4-6 months in RA and Richard would obviously know that

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@seedy19tron 2) Coincidentally this could also be a nice bridge between oncology vs immunology pricing if oncology treat until progression and AD 8-week fixed duration

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@MelvinRiskMgmt @BiotechTV @SMMT_TX Secret billionaire dress code

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@Biohazard3737 Absolutely - what surprises me most is that in other industries startups select for traits like higher risk tolerance

But in biotech I've met my fair share of people who just want to play it safe and work a 9-5

Maybe it's an incentive issue and we need more co like $IMVT $BBIO

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@Sanctuary_Bio 1 yr outside your window but Roche / Ignyta which was exactly on 12/22 :)

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@semodough Hahaha excluding LOEs, hilarious

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

@Lord_of_Biotech Question is what's going to happen with the rest of the shares since they're closing the fund

6.5M shares with no bids on open market will be...entertaining I suppose

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

Giredestrant iDFS HR = 0.70 (p = 0.0014) vs SOC in ER+ early stage breast cancer #ROG #OLMA

Pretty impressive results from lidERA study

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

Crazy how if $INCY could acquire $PRLD for ~50% premium that would be equivalent to paying out $100M option on the JAK2 (and they wouldn't have to pay any royalties)

Just saying

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

$INCY deal:

$35M upfront
$25M equity investment ($4/sh)
Option to acquire program $100M
Plus milestones and royalties

Not bad for a preclinical deal given how much they need the cash

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

3. Positive Roche data may give BP enough confidence to swoop in - NVS and PFE are obvious suitors but could also include GILD

A $5B deal still a steal if you believe $15B Roche market cap jump and if BP waits until a positive Ph3 that price is going to be multiples higher

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

3 reasons why I think there is additional upside in $OLMA despite recent bump

1. More Roche giredestrant data coming in 1Q26 (delayed from 4Q25)

This is their persevERA study in 1L in combo with palbo - personally most interested in this readout

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

$OLMA +75% in the last month to $550M market cap from $PFE clinical supply deal and also analyst note (Oppenheimer?) on pending $ROG persevERA / evERA readouts that are imminent

3 reasons why I believe there's more upside:

[Biotech Runner @biotech_runner]

2. Roche +7% share price on announcing lidERA results translates into $15B market cap vs $2B $OLMA MC post raise