Roche acquires PathAI
$750M UF + $300M milestones
To me, this makes much more sense than drug discovery
I question the utility of the platform once owned by Roche (à la FMI or Flatiron) but at least the price is not outrageous
$NVS acquires pan-mutant‑selective PI3Kα inhibitor SNV4818 from Synnovation
$2B upfront + $1B milestones
Takes them out of running for $CELC and probably $OLMA ? Unless you go for a triplet in 1L?
@lfholt Always molecule specific risk but last main catalyst before OPERA-01
Funny thing is, if gire hits, I think mgt will want to flip over their Ph3 card (as in not sell) but I suppose that all depends on price...
With $XBI nearing 130 and macro uncertainty (JGB yields/flight to gold) figured it's prudent to take some risk off the table
Keeping investments in 2 buckets:
1) Commercial: clinically derisked, (continued) execution outweighs cost of capital concerns $mdgl $bbio $cytk
@seedy19tron 3) QD vs BID less an issue if only for fixed duration
As an aside, this would be similar to Rituxan where you have 6-8 cycles in DLBCL, until progression in FL/CLL, and every 4-6 months in RA and Richard would obviously know that
@seedy19tron 2) Coincidentally this could also be a nice bridge between oncology vs immunology pricing if oncology treat until progression and AD 8-week fixed duration
@Biohazard3737 Absolutely - what surprises me most is that in other industries startups select for traits like higher risk tolerance
But in biotech I've met my fair share of people who just want to play it safe and work a 9-5
Maybe it's an incentive issue and we need more co like $IMVT $BBIO
@Lord_of_Biotech Question is what's going to happen with the rest of the shares since they're closing the fund
6.5M shares with no bids on open market will be...entertaining I suppose
Crazy how if $INCY could acquire $PRLD for ~50% premium that would be equivalent to paying out $100M option on the JAK2 (and they wouldn't have to pay any royalties)
Just saying
$INCY deal:
$35M upfront
$25M equity investment ($4/sh)
Option to acquire program $100M
Plus milestones and royalties
Not bad for a preclinical deal given how much they need the cash
3. Positive Roche data may give BP enough confidence to swoop in - NVS and PFE are obvious suitors but could also include GILD
A $5B deal still a steal if you believe $15B Roche market cap jump and if BP waits until a positive Ph3 that price is going to be multiples higher
3 reasons why I think there is additional upside in $OLMA despite recent bump
1. More Roche giredestrant data coming in 1Q26 (delayed from 4Q25)
This is their persevERA study in 1L in combo with palbo - personally most interested in this readout
$OLMA +75% in the last month to $550M market cap from $PFE clinical supply deal and also analyst note (Oppenheimer?) on pending $ROG persevERA / evERA readouts that are imminent
3 reasons why I believe there's more upside: