The Snake of Green Valley Street

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[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

@T_OConnell Welcome back Champ !

[Victor LaSalle @VictorLasalleDD]

$LQDA Yutrepia: this chart shows all communicated data points since launch regarding unique subscriptions and patient starts, extrapolated to end of 2026. If this continues, they will report 4,800 unique subscriptions and 3,950 patient starts next earnings in June!

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

@heyitspixel69 My shit was light brown today. Means GME could move up, down, or stay the same!

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

@AnnaFlorcia I was referring to this number. It rose quite significantly. Are there any convertible securities other than RSUs and options?

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

$LQDA

[Victor LaSalle @VictorLasalleDD]

Modeling the 2026 fiscal trajectory for Liquidia $LQDA based on current operational trends and a linear growth of 400 new YUTREPIA subscriptions per month. This base-case scenario highlights the projected impact of operating leverage as the commercial scale-up progresses.

2026 Quarterly EPS Projections

Based on 85 million shares outstanding, the model yields the following results:

Q1/26: Earnings: $47.44M | EPS: $0.56
Q2/26: Earnings: $71.90M | EPS: $0.85
Q3/26: Earnings: $96.30M | EPS: $1.13
Q4/26: Earnings: $121.00M | EPS: $1.42

FY 2026: Earnings: $336,640,000 | EPS: $3.96

Model Assumptions & Expenditure Profiling:
To maintain a realistic scenario, the following quarterly cost escalations have been integrated into the model to account for increased volume and organizational growth:

- Cost of Product Sales: Increasing by $4M per quarter (scaled with volume).
- R&D: Increasing by $3M per quarter (continued pipeline development).
- SG&A: Increasing by $5M per quarter (commercial expansion).
- Fixed Metrics: Service Revenue and associated costs remain constant. Interest income is stable, with a slight projected increase in interest expenses.
- Capital Structure: Calculated on a constant 85M shares outstanding.

The model demonstrates significant margin expansion. While operating expenses are projected to rise by $12M+ per quarter in aggregate, the revenue growth driven by the 400-subscription monthly cadence outpaces the cost basis. Under these parameters, $LQDA would achieve an annualized EPS of ~$3.96 by year-end 2026.
The data is aligned with management's comments regarding conversion rate and financing. It serves as a baseline for assessing the company's valuation relative to its future earnings power.

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

$LQDA

[Victor LaSalle @VictorLasalleDD]

Analyzing $LQDA ahead of the March 18th earnings ⬇️ Street consensus sits at $0.27 EPS (Low: $0.02, High $0.42). Let's look at estimates to see how this number could be derived:

Q4 2025 Projected Income Statement:
Revenue:
Yutrepia Sales: $90.1M (confirmed via ad-hoc)
Service Revenue: $2.5M (est.)
Total Revenue: $92.6M

Expenses & Margins:
COGS (Product & Service): $6.04M (implying robust ~93% gross margins)
R&D Expenses: $12.0M SG&A: $45.0M (est.)

= Operating Income: $29.56M

Interest Income: $1.6M
Interest Expense: $8.55M
= Net Interest Expense: -$6.95M

= Net Income: $22.61M
>> EPS (85M Shares): $0.266

If Liquidia maintains this trajectory, the modeling indicates the company reaching a $1 Billion annualized product sales by the end of 2026. $LQDA is no longer just a pipeline story; the fundamentals are taking the lead.
Stay tuned for detailed projections covering Q1/26 through Q4/26. Sources in comments!

[Victor LaSalle @VictorLasalleDD]

Analyzing $LQDA ahead of the March 18th earnings ⬇️ Street consensus sits at $0.27 EPS (Low: $0.02, High $0.42). Let's look at estimates to see how this number could be derived:

Q4 2025 Projected Income Statement:
Revenue:
Yutrepia Sales: $90.1M (confirmed via ad-hoc)
Service Revenue: $2.5M (est.)
Total Revenue: $92.6M

Expenses & Margins:
COGS (Product & Service): $6.04M (implying robust ~93% gross margins)
R&D Expenses: $12.0M SG&A: $45.0M (est.)

= Operating Income: $29.56M

Interest Income: $1.6M
Interest Expense: $8.55M
= Net Interest Expense: -$6.95M

= Net Income: $22.61M
>> EPS (85M Shares): $0.266

If Liquidia maintains this trajectory, the modeling indicates the company reaching a $1 Billion annualized product sales by the end of 2026. $LQDA is no longer just a pipeline story; the fundamentals are taking the lead.
Stay tuned for detailed projections covering Q1/26 through Q4/26. Sources in comments!

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

@AnnaFlorcia For $LQDA mine are:
Q1: $129M
Q2: $167M
Q3: $205M
Q4: $245M
This is linear projection. My guess for EPS Q1 lands on $0.21$ / share, with costs of revenue increasing by $10M (it was $20M between Q3 -> Q4/25). Q4/26 EPS of $1. This is conservative / base case. Let’s see 😊!

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

With different scenarios, even cutting patient starts or earnings per patient in half (due to unfortunate outcomes from legal processes), it will stay exciting to follow $LQDA.

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

$LQDA today released their end of 2025 YUTREPIA net sales. With the data points available, we can do some number crunching. I’m landing on 7640 unique patient subscriptions be the end of 2026. What that means: a thread 🧵

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

With 6495 patients on YUTREPIA, 160,000 $ in earnings per patient would amount to ~ 1.040.000.000 $ or 1,04 B $. This would mean $LQDA with a market cap of 3,1 B $ is trading with a forward P/E of 3.02 !

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

5/ $RIVN Rivian
The 2026 launch of the R2 is the "make or break" moment for $RIVN to achieve mass-market scale and sustainable unit economics. The Volkswagen joint venture is gonna help with that and profitability is finally within reach.

Price Target: 32$

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

My Top 5 Stock Picks for 2026 🧵
Here is my high-conviction list for the year, ranked from safest to riskiest.
1. $ADBE
2. $LQDA
3. $CRCL
4. $NBIS
5. $RIVN
Dive into the thread below for the bull cases and my 2026 price targets! 📈👇

[The Snake of Green Valley Street @biotechmonstad]

4/ $NBIS Nebius
$NBIS is a rapidly scaling GPU clusters to meet the insatiable demand from hyperscalers like Meta and Microsoft. With a projected surge toward a $9B ARR by the end of 2026, it remains a premier beneficiary of the AI compute super-cycle.

Price Target: 145$