Anyone with some understanding of how politics work should know 1989 was essentially a failed coup, and could have foreseen what would happen in the other direction. And there are many parallel countries out there already playing out the script for you.
If the students ultimately win, it would be Zhao Ziyang taking the lead, with Deng stepping down. Then it would be a replay of the Soviet Union/Russia story. Zhao would most likely fall out with the so-called elected parliament, since this nation has never had sufficient training in parliamentary politics协商政治 and good culture to make compromises with opponents, and the political alliance formed in the square would be fragile—look at Russia’s 1993 constitutional crisis as an example. The border regions would very likely see conflicts and even wars—think Chechnya. The economy would most likely be on the brink of collapse—think shock therapy. The populace would call for a more centralized government—think Putin.
And that’s still a good scenario. The bad scenario is disintegration across regions (back then, it wasn’t just Beijing in turmoil; the whole country was), leading to a new era of warlord chaos. Another few decades of fighting would follow. Of course, I know some people hope for a “Southeast Mutual Protection���南互保” style of division or a confederation system, but honestly, anyone with a slight understanding of Chinese history knows this wouldn’t work—it’s just pure wishful thinking.
Also, I am happy to be this "CCP-co-opted elites" that you refer to. This certainly sounds more accurate than "CCP shills" 😆