BitBrew

BitBrew is where decentralization of money meets the automation of intelligence. Join me on my journey through the bits of our universe, one bean at a time. ☕️

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

New Substack: The Reverse Imperial Circle

https://t.co/2xOalcZP9X

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Bitcoin and Mungers Rule.

One has to wonder about the “AI is sucking up all the capital” narrative when nearly 8 trillion dollars still sits in money market funds earning a risk‑free yield, while fiat money loses something on the order of 8% of its purchasing power per year. In a market that noisy, the 200‑week Munger Rule is less a tactic than an x‑ray of who actually believes in compounding.

Buy at the upward sloping 200-week moving average.

Yes buy when there is blood in the streets.

But emotions get in the way.

The 200 week MA.

It marks the point where price has already done the damage and narrative has followed it down, where momentum, flows and sentiment have all turned against you, and where long-term value quietly reasserts itself. Narrative follows price.

When you should buy, you will not want to. The same is true of selling ( yes sell parabolic moves).

The excess return is therefore not informational. It is behavioural.
Most investors cannot do it. Emotions get in the way, simple human aversion to loss turn volatility into something to be avoided rather than harvested.

I call it the Munger Rule.

Have a nice day.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

The future has two Bitcoins.

One is bearer Bitcoin: cold storage, self-custody, personal sovereignty, exit from the fiat permission layer.

The other is institutional Bitcoin: ETFs, corporate treasuries, bank custody, collateral markets, structured products, lending desks, sovereign reserves, accounting frameworks, insurance wrappers, and capital-market machinery.

The first protects the soul.

The second drives scale.

Saylor is betting that the second layer brings trillions while the first layer keeps the whole thing honest.

That is probably correct.

Bitcoin will not reach full global monetary impact by staying a purist enclave. It reaches maximum force when the world’s existing balance sheets start treating it as superior collateral. Banks do not need to love Bitcoin’s ideology. Governments do not need to become libertarian. Pension funds do not need to understand cypherpunk culture. They only need to realize the asset is liquid, scarce, durable, politically harder to print, and increasingly unavoidable.

That is how Bitcoin eats the system.

Slowly, then through balance sheets.

The deepest signal in Saylor’s post: he is shifting Bitcoin from anti-system asset to open monetary network.

That language is designed to make Bitcoin acceptable to CFOs, boards, banks, regulators, sovereigns, and normal families. He is sanding down the revolutionary edge without abandoning the hard monetary core.

That will anger old-school maximalists.

It will also make Bitcoin much larger.

The forecast is clear: Bitcoin becomes more integrated, more regulated, more collateralized, more institutionally owned, more politically important, and more strategically protected. Self-custody remains the sacred base, but most economic activity around Bitcoin moves through institutions.

Price probably benefits.

Purity suffers.

Systemic importance rises.

State attention intensifies.

Bitcoin began as escape from the financial system.

It becomes world-historical when the financial system is forced to build around it.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US government is becoming increasingly dependent on private investors to finance its growing debt burden:

Privately held US Treasury debt maturing within 1 year is up to a record $8.3 trillion.

This figure has DOUBLED over the last 5 years, reflecting the government's growing reliance on short-term financing from private investors.

As more debt shifts into Treasury bills, a larger amount must be refinanced every year, leaving borrowing costs increasingly sensitive to interest rates and investor demand.

At the same time, foreign central banks are reducing their share of Treasury holdings, making private investors absorb a larger portion of new issuances.

As a result, the Treasury market is becoming increasingly dependent on investor demand and liquidity conditions rather than the stable long-term buyers that have traditionally anchored it.

With US public debt at an all-time high, even modest disruptions in funding markets could have an outsized impact on borrowing costs.

Treasury refinancing risks are intensifying.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin is below its P-10 stress floor.

Spot: $60.6K
P-10 floor: $62.6K
Gap: -3.26%
Current breach streak: 2 days
Historical breach rate: 10.39%
Longest breach streak: 234 days

A P-10 breach does not break the model.

It means Bitcoin is trading inside the rare-stress zone the model expects.

The model only breaks if “stress” stops being temporary and becomes the new regime.

That is not decided in 2 days.

The real trade is simple:

Short-term pain versus long-term compression.

Bitcoin’s power law does not predict next month.

It predicts when time starts overpowering volatility.

Walk-forward validation says that threshold is not 90 days.

It is ~1 year.

And clearly ~2 years plus.

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

Gary, the rules of the Power Law are via its adoption over time.

The lines are just there as different levels.

Staying under the trend line doesn’t make it any less a Power law.

It’s also not as simple as “oh if it goes below it for a few months it’s broken.”

In order for the Power law to really be broken, it would have to stay under the power law bottom trend for probably a decade.

“Underperforming” doesn’t mean it’s broken.

But it would have to be”underperform” for a long while before the statistical points become much less like the Power law if that makes sense.

The power law doesn’t guarantee a specific CAGR.

Those are just there to guide you alone the multiple trend lines.

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

What is funny is that people use model as it was an arbitrary thing. It is not. It is the true description of how Bitcoin behaves mathematically.

It is not some random guy opinion, it is a true description, soon officially published in a science journal, of how Bitcoin has behaved so far.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Bitcoin Capitalist: Bitcoin reaches its full potential by integrating with the global economy: currencies, credit, securities, companies, banks, institutions, governments, families, and individuals. Bitcoin is an open monetary network for everyone.

[“Coosh” Alemzadeh @AlemzadehC]

Loving it if I’m being candid. All of the technical things trader types look at need to be “taken out” so that Bitcoin can rid them from the market.

If you are buying or selling Bitcoin based on a level or MA there is no way and I repeat now way you are holding to 1M+

Bitcoin is doing exactly what we should expect prior to coiling for a move to 400-600k then 1M…confusing, demoralizing, and validating the wrong view.

Instant gratification is the fiat mindset…Bitcoin exposes that well and in the process gets the majority off the train while contemplating the downside when they should be thrilled with the possibility of the upside(that’s what asymmetry should feel like)

Meanwhile global markets are littered with major re-accumulation events that preceded major expansion. The mother of all of them is the one that will return the most value but that ship is the one in the roughest seas(given most of the passengers sea sickness)

@saylor has returned his shareholders a 9x return since he started making Bitcoin a reserve treasury asset yet this app will try to convince you that you need to trade in an out of the volatility in order to make it.

96% of traders are not profitable after 1 year so the facts tell us that active trading is a losing game for most. That’s why my charts to the public have you focused on the destination. We can all take a page out of Saylor’s book. It may not look obvious now but it will very soon

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

Or artificially propping the market higher…

As you’ve written about, demographics will soon weigh on equity markets with Baby boomers selling.

The government is becoming this backstop.

They can play it off as “Sovereign wealth fund” or “UBI”, but really it’s about keeping the ponzi alive and playing it off as a political stunt to gain voters.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

Aside from Bitcoin which was a fundamentally different project, only Hyperliquid has brought any real value.

Everything else was just a narrative that got swept away with no staying power.

What’s really missing in crypto is what $HYPE has…

Real world utility that tradfi NEEDS to recognize.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Bitcoin Maximalist: Bitcoin is the dominant digital monetary network: an ethical, technical, and economic breakthrough, and an instrument of economic empowerment. It offers superior property rights, monetary integrity, and hope to those facing economic misery.

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

So pretty much don’t buy any of these right now.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

HERE ARE THE TOP 15 PERFORMERS OF 2026

1. $SNDK +557%
2. $AXTI +445%
3. $AAOI +408%
4. $AEHR +388%
5. $DOCN +253%
6. $NVTS +251%
7. $ARM +214%
8. $DELL +214%
9. $MRVL +210%
10. $BE +204%
11. $MU +203%
12. $WDC +197%
13. $NBIS +172%
14. $INTC +169%
15. $VIAV +167%

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

I have talked about this for a while…

We’re nearing the end game of the cycle.

It could last 12 months or 36 months.

But Gold usually underperforms.

$BTC outperforms.

$IWM outperforms.

$NDX outperforms.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Gold losing the 200ma👀

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

Capital will flow back into Bitcoin at some point but…

I’m becoming more skeptical on exactly how long it might take.

It’s highly possible the next 2-3 years Bitcoin just goes through a phase of accumulation and underperforms AI.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

The AI buildout is absorbing capital at historic scale, creating temporary pressure across global markets. That does not weaken Bitcoin. It strengthens the case for scarce, liquid, digital capital. Bitcoin remains the premier asset for the long term. $BTC

[BitBrew @BitBrew1]

@FinFreedom414 A isn’t freedom.

It’s the opposite.

You’ve locked out everything but yourself but in the process you’ve actually locked yourself IN.

[Jen Zhu @jenzhuscott]

Massive output uptick due to agentic AI. Complete flat adoption.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Anthropic FUD scaring normies + hot jobs/rate hike on table + misinterpretation of Semianalysis memory piece = growth trade breather

Hey Anthropic, stop it.

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

The margin between winning and losing is sometimes just free throws and chokes

Lesson in there

Believe