tae kim

"Key Context" Substack covering AI & chips. Reached #1 new bestseller first 24 hrs

Subscribe the truth. Be accurate. Be right

[tae kim @firstadopter]

My Substack's stock ideas performance since inception. Thanks to @marketstackfeed for independent third-party verification

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Chip design is all about talent. All the best talent has already left Qualcomm.

[Samir Khazaka @SamirKhazaka]

Geekerwan findings are striking. Qualcomm latest Snapdragon moved to a 2nm process and pushed CPU clocks to 5GHz, yet apparently failed to deliver consistent improvements in performance per watt. Meanwhile both Apple and MediaTek delivered more convincing efficiency gains. $QCOM

[tae kim @firstadopter]

The deal makes no sense

[KawzInvests @KawzInvests]

Lumentum: so how are you paying the $82B?

Marvell, with $3.9B in the bank:

[tae kim @firstadopter]

When the vast majority of reporting is out-of-context, conflated clickbait garbage, high-quality accurate stuff is especially refreshing.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Hey Bloomberg @business @byJuliaLove and @daveyalba deserve a raise. Their reporting on Google was factual and prescient giving readers better information to make higher quality decisions (Sell Alphabet). Good journalism with accurate context is EXTREMELY rare today. Well done!

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Hey Bloomberg @business @byJuliaLove and @daveyalba deserve a raise. Their reporting on Google was factual and prescient giving readers better information to make higher quality decisions (Sell Alphabet). Good journalism with accurate context is EXTREMELY rare today. Well done!

[tae kim @firstadopter]

I've been very critical of the media lately for good reason, but there's still awesome journalism being done. Bloomberg's coverage of the cultural problems inside Google was KICK ASS. I referenced it on my Substack.

Bloomberg also called out the bloated, too expensive to serve, bench-maxxed Gemini 4 Argon early.

Well done, Bloomberg! Truly helped readers with factual accurate reporting! You win Tae's Gold Star of Gratitude.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

I've been very critical of the media lately for good reason, but there's still awesome journalism being done. Bloomberg's coverage of the cultural problems inside Google was KICK ASS. I referenced it on my Substack.

Bloomberg also called out the bloated, too expensive to serve, bench-maxxed Gemini 4 Argon early.

Well done, Bloomberg! Truly helped readers with factual accurate reporting! You win Tae's Gold Star of Gratitude.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Bloomberg: "Moreover, it’s a very large model, according to a person familiar with its development. Typically big models are expensive to run, potentially putting pressure on Google’s margins."

"Experts say Google could be suffering from an industry tendency to focus on benchmarks — a phenomenon known as “benchmaxxing" .. Gemini 4 appears to be affected by this process, said two people familiar with the model."

Google: "We’re grateful for the initial cohort of cyber defenders and trusted testers whose real-world evaluations and feedback will help us strengthen our systems before we release to developers, enterprises, and consumers, starting with paid API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers."

Reality is Gemini 4 model isn't out. "trusted testers" is the tell. And when it first comes out, it will be on the expensive plans.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

That would be ad fraud

[Limitless @MKRlimitless]

@firstadopter What if the google AI agents click on Ads? 🎯

[tae kim @firstadopter]

My question for Google is what percentage of total queries now come from AI agents that will never click on ads?

I bet it's a big number and it's going to climb exponentially higher.

Search and its economics are now toast.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

@dchana Nope

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Annnnnnnnnnd end scene.

Google earnings call: "It's worth noting that the strong growth in AI mode queries had an impact because of the lower monetization we were seeing in AI mode."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Google Is a Secular Short https://t.co/gYqTUFh50D

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Microsoft SPIKES higher on strong Azure guide +49-50% y/y for current quarter. WOW!

[tae kim @firstadopter]

This year, well followed accounts on here ridiculed me for my bearish call on Google and my bullish calls on Dell and Microsoft.

In hindsight, that was a sign my contrarian calls might be right. As for my trolls, they can go jump in a lake.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

This year, well followed accounts on here ridiculed me for my bearish call on Google and my bullish calls on Dell and Microsoft.

In hindsight, that was a sign my contrarian calls might be right. As for my trolls, they can go jump in a lake.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Google Is a Secular Short https://t.co/gYqTUFh50D

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Analyst: How come you aren't giving us TPU margins?

Google: ramble ramble ramble "we don't break out margins for individual products"

[tae kim @firstadopter]

YIKES! -> Google earnings call: "It's worth noting that the strong growth in AI mode queries had an impact because of the lower monetization we were seeing in AI mode."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

This makes no sense. LITE is already a huge % of MRVL's market cap.

Bloomberg: "Marvell Technology Inc. is in advanced talks to buy data center optics maker Lumentum Holdings Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, a potential megadeal amid the race to scale up in the artificial intelligence sector.

A deal could be announced as soon as next week, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the discussions are private. Lumentum has a market value of about $83 billion while Marvell is worth about $221 billion." https://t.co/9lTQ1yeqhY

[tae kim @firstadopter]

YIKES! -> Google earnings call: "It's worth noting that the strong growth in AI mode queries had an impact because of the lower monetization we were seeing in AI mode."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

The secular decline of Google Search has begun. nite nite

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Thomas Kurian is literally the reason Google is incompetently disrupting itself. He should NOT be on the earnings call.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

The secular decline of Google Search has begun. nite nite

[tae kim @firstadopter]

@RQA Beth Kindig is dead wrong

[tae kim @firstadopter]

The secular decline of Google Search has begun. nite nite

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Google Is a Secular Short https://t.co/gYqTUFh50D

[tae kim @firstadopter]

If there only was a Substack that was bullish on Microsoft and bearish on Google. If only ...

[tae kim @firstadopter]

@SkeleCap 10 grand for 256GB RAM is price gouging. Nothing to do with AI bull-ness.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Bruh, Apple. The additional 256GB of RAM to 512GB costs a FORTUNE

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Come join me on the OpenAI/Anthropic bull train for next 12 months.

Smart people like Jacob change their mind when the facts CLEARLY change (Anthropic S-1 inference economics). WSJ and FT should re-read the S-1 ten more times.

[Jacob Effron @jacobeffron]

Modal CEO, @bernhardsson, on why Anthropic's S1 changed his view on the next few years of GPU prices: