Once you get into your 30s as a man you have to figure out what activities your personality is going to be revolved around.
Golfing, smoking various meats, jujitsu etc.
Ultimate BTC Simple Bias Guide.
It's very easy to forget that it was simply 1 red candle yesterday that caused a huge reaction in the emotion of the discussion on Twitter.
However the thoughts around BTC are simple, and don't require emotion.
Right now it's just the standard loud positioning and declaration of position that dominates the timeline.
BTC is in a strong uptrend, it remains so, but there are some warning signs on the Daily.
So let me lay out the facts for you and some of the playouts and way price will guide the decisions and view on the market.
We have resistance of the range at $72k.
We have an uptrend.
We had another rejection (5th) from $72k on Friday.
BTC needs to hold the uptrend, if we lose $67k, we're once again going to be in a downtrend with this being confirmed as a LH and therefore negative market conditions continuing.
The attention would then turn to the Weekly timeframe and that is when the concern would rise. With establishing the LH here we'd need to absolutely hold $61k. If that was lost, I would consider that the end of the cycle - weekly trend changes aren't good.
But as it stands, we're still very early in terms of our time here around the former high (you still can't be confident this would be a lower high - although the daily may strengthen your beliefs if it does begin downtrending.)
So to simplify:
We're still uptrending on the Daily and Weekly.
The Daily needs to make a fresh high and break $72k otherwise it's at risk of losing the Daily trend below $67k.
We've had 5 touches of $72k resistance now.
If we lose $67k attention turns to the Weekly and holding the Weekly low at $61k.
If the Weekly breaks the low and confirms a downtrending structure, I think it's time to reassess portfolios.
As a positive, there are no HTF bear divs, which have typically been a strong signal for cycle tops. We're clean on RSI.
Until then, pressure remains on $72k.
There is a clear path for bias. Right now it still makes sense to be bullish and simply have your markers for when the market is turning against you, and your portfolio, to make decisions when/if the time comes.
OK now time for the education and balanced post for the day to settle things down a little.
Today the market has been blessed, we’ve seen some significant moves.
$ETH is producing its largest Daily candle for 3 years.
Many memes are mooning through resistances.
$BTC is showing significant strength after re-establishing its Daily uptrend.
On the LTF you will feel frozen out, you might even feel pissed off that you didn’t believe rallies, didn’t want to buy at the lows, and didn’t manage to make any money in the moves we’ve seen today.
BUT, that’s where that mindset has to stop.
The market has shown us once again that the momentum is back to the upside.
BTC re-established its uptrend.
Markets have broken resistances.
ETH is on a tear.
These are all independent signals on the HTF. So while the LTF will feel as though you can’t position the HTFs are producing signals as long as you can manage your risk enough to survive the LTF corrections.
It’s also great to buy into strength. The market is breaking resistances, it’s bouncing significantly away from supports, it’s breaking trend lines, whatever your signal, we’re getting the clarity in where the strength is. And we like that, it makes us more comfortable to position, it gives additional belief and confluence to the end of the chop and the trend continuing.
Once again, your entries are bollocks, they don’t matter, the nonsense about showing entries is absolutely irrelevant, all that matters is that you’re involved in the market and you’re able to take advantage of the momentum.
The point of this post is to say that although today might feel shitty for you. If you swap to the HTFs and manage your risk appropriately it’s once again a day in which you’re just being provided with an opportunity to enter positions.
Stop being fascinated by the LTF, start operating with reduced size and making sure you’re actively participating in the market.
Do not feel frozen out, instead appreciate that while your entry might not look pretty enough for you to want to share on Twitter it might be a perfectly wonderful entry to secure you $ in your account over the course of the next few weeks.
This is all that matters.
Fuck your entries, fuck the bottom ticks, and appreciate the most important thing is being on the right side of the market and making money.
Of course traders start philosophically posting life wisdom after a year or two in the game.
It’s right about the time when you start to realize that your trading mistakes are usually reflections of your flaws as a person.
Greedy, hot-headed, or impatient as a person? Good chance it shows up in your trading as well.
I love seeing it cause it’s the transformative period in a trader’s journey. Some people never conquer those demons, some do.
That last mile is the loneliest.
The longer I stay in Thailand
The less I want to leave
The living cost, the sun, the smiles, the culture, the food, the healthcare, the taxes & the respect between genders
All of it is far superior to the UK
The longer I stay here the more I realize that the West is failing.
Get out before it's too late.
Be careful following anyone on this app.
Every trader who has survived long enough knows that making price predictions is a joke, and that on a long enough timeline, people here will have varying levels of “hot hands.”
If you stick around in markets long enough, you will see everyone’s hot period and everyone’s cold period. The trouble is, when you are placing trades based on their calls, you have no idea where you sit in the time ensemble of that streak.
At some point, statistics kick in and the streak will interrupt.
It is YOUR JOB right now to tell ALL YOUR FRIENDS in the REAL WORLD,
That you are DOWN BAD AS FUCK.
You need to EXAGGERATE STORIES how you’ve LOST IT ALL.
Free yourself from the EVIL EYE,
Get rid of POCKET-WATCHERS,
And the MOST IMPORTANT THING,
Watch concealed haters smirk and get happy.
NORMALIZE AND HUMANIZE YOURSELF so they don’t feel envy any more.
It’s HARD WORK being a YOUNG RICH NIGGA, but this is Crypto PA is a BLESSING.
“Wow I’d hate to be in his shoes right now!”—Is what they’ll be thinking.
But you know why it’s so good?
Because in a month or so, we will be UP BIGLY.
And ALL OF THEM CLOWNS will have MISSED IT by getting FUDDED by you.
It’s called PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE, bucko.
Time to start the POOR LARP NOW.
Remilio.
This is still the cloud that hangs over crypto imo, and it's $BTC.
1. There is a lot more strength present currently. Whatever factors you align this to, ETF, fundamentals, halving, it's notable that BTC is holding up.
2. There's an acknowledgement that this is happening, and people are treating it as strength (no problem) but that raises the question, what if.
3. With the historical tendency to produce -30% pullbacks, what happens to the landscape if $BTC does head down for a -30% correction and into the $51ks.
I agree with what you all see, strength.
For now all you can do is play for what we see.
But the what if does weigh heavily on my mind.
I mean if that was it, what a blessing.
Massive discount on Alts, BTC never lost $60k, immediate spot premium, Hong Kong approving spot ETFS and a GCR tweet.
There is always a sell off during bull runs that makes you think “maybe the doom callers, bears and macro larps were right, this could be over”
Fear will sweep through Twitter.
When you feel it and see it, fight your own emotion and instead buy as much as you can.