I'm not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are:
~$80K: Nov '25 low, local low of this "bear"
~$74K: April '25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR's cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near '21 high
~$58K: 200W SMA & on-chain cost basis (RV = ~$56K)
~$50K & below: bottom of the weekly range below, psychological, below this number you would see "death of BTC" calls once again
Importantly, I don't care what happens. If we rally from here, I'll ride what I have and diversify my portfolio, if we fall apart I'll buy more $BTC & select cryptoassets.
closing section of buffett's final letter:
"One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.
Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read his own obituary that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at what he read and realized he should change his behavior.
Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.
Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.
I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman."
Bittensor subnet valuation gap is insane, trading at 1/10th to 1/100th of Competiton:
$TAO: $524
Halving: 40 days
Current Total Subnet Mcap: $1.53B
Fair value range Mcap: $15B–$30B
$TAO market cap: $5B
120+ active subnets
Each AI related business. Valued less than, any single mid-tier altcoin?
Let that Asymmetry sink in.
This is real value the market hasn’t priced:
Chutes ($139M) vs Modal ($1B) = 7x gap
Ridges ($121M) vs Devin ($2B) = 17x gap
Dippy ($18M) vs CharacterAI ($1B) = 56x gap
Quantum ($50M) vs IonQ ($2B) = 40x gap
Templar 43M vs Together AI ($1.25B) = 29x gap
ReadyAI 19M vs Scale AI ($13.8B) = 726x gap
IOTA $32M vs Together AI ($1.25B) = 39x gap
Every subnet listed is shipping products.
None of them needed VC funding.
They earn emissions, not permission.
Real products. Real users.
An easy 1/10th the price.
10x from here.
There are 120+ more subnets covering every AI use case imaginable.
Explore: https://t.co/LFxnUAbjRA
Macro:
• Fed ending QT (liquidity returning)
• $TAO halving in 40 days (supply shock)
Ecosystem maturing (120+ subnets, $106M daily volume)
We’re watching working AI infrastructure priced like vaporware.
Once revenues hit, listings expand, and awareness catches up
the repricing will be violent.
$TAO
I get why people are skeptical. Most crypto projects chase hype.
But Bittensor $TAO is different it’s aiming at a problem that’s about to define the decade.
We’re heading toward an AI monopoly that makes Big Tech look tame.
Right now:
Only 3–4 companies can train frontier models:
OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta.
Training costs are exploding.
GPT-4: $100M.
GPT-5: $1B.
By 2030, $10B+ runs.
That means only 2–3 entities.
Will control all meaningful AI.
And that’s where the real danger starts:
1. Corporate Alignment Problem
Google decides what’s “true.” No competition. No alternative viewpoints.
2. Innovation Gatekeeping
You want AI for research? Pay their price, follow their rules, accept their limits.
3. Data Slavery
We train their models for free, they own the value.
4. Single Points of Failure
One AWS outage. One regulator. And half the world’s AI goes dark.
Bittensor exists as infrastructure insurance. It doesn’t need to be perfectly decentralized just decentralized enough to:
• Prevent single-entity control
• Enable permissionless innovation
• Distribute value fairly
Think Linux vs Windows. Linux didn’t win the market, but it forced competition, powered critical infrastructure, and gave the world a real alternative.
Bittensor is the Linux of AI.
Real use cases are already emerging:
– Sovereign AI for nations too small to build their own.
– Specialized models Big Tech ignores.
– Uncensorable research.
– Economic participation for contributors GPUs, data, validation work paid in $TAO.
Without Bittensor by 2030:
– 2–3 companies own intelligence itself
– Prices rise
– Innovation is permissioned
– Nations get locked out
– “AI safety” becomes corporate policy
With Bittensor:
– Constant competition
– Open innovation
– Shared infrastructure
– Value flows to contributors
– Multiple safety approaches
$TAO it’s the coordination mechanism. No incentives, no network. No network, back to monopolies.
Bittensor might fail. It’s hard tech. But the alternative total corporate control of intelligence is worse.
The question isn’t “Will Bittensor beat Google?”
It’s “Do we really want to live in a world where Google has no competition?”
We’ve seen this movie before.
Oil. Banks. Big Tech.
This time, it’s intelligence itself.
And that’s why I think $TAO matters.
Bitcoin was invented 17 years ago, on October 31st, 2008, when an anonymous engineer with the username ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’ published a whitepaper ‘Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System’ to a cryptography emailing list. The user’s identity remains a mystery to this day.
read every memo written by howard marks over the last 35 years and my key takeaway:
“you cannot predict, by you can prepare.”
specifically this means
- there will always be economic, market, and business cycles due to animal spirit.
- u can assess roughly where we r in the cycle based on current price multiples relative to historical average and investor psychology (eg “this time is different”).
- without forecasting when and at what price cycle tops or bottoms.
- no one can make such forecasts better than consensus consistently over a long period of time.
- but u can do better than the market over the long term by adjust ur position defensively or aggressive based where we r in the cycle.
simple, but incredibly hard to implement because u will succumb to ur own animal spirit.
Those chasing ETH beta via DeFi tokens will be let down this bull run.
DeFi summer taught us that value accrues from ETH -> DeFi projects. It's a logical conclusion, given that DeFi is the most popular sector on Ethereum.
But what's become evident is the real ETH beta is actually boomer coins (i.e., XRP, HBAR, XLM, ADA, TRX, ALGO, etc.) These are the B-tier majors, tokens with 11-figure market caps, yet no fundamentals to back it up. The primary tailwind here is the lindy effect + CEX exposure, which makes these tokens an easy buy for non-crypto natives.
What we’re seeing instead is that ETH beta now flows into large-cap “boomer coins”, like XRP, ADA, HBAR, XLM, ALGO, etc. These tokens have double-digit billion-dollar market caps, yet little to no network activity to back them up. Their appeal lies in longevity (Lindy) and accessibility for retail outside the crypto-native crowd via CEXs.
This proves two things:
1) Fundamentals still don’t matter. Revenue and usage metrics have little influence in a retail-driven bull market.
2) Unless you have asymmetric edge in medium/small caps, you're better off holding levered ETH or large-cap majors than hoping a mid-cap DeFi token will outperform.
The token landscape has dramatically expanded since DeFi Summer. With more options, selection risk increases, and picking the right DeFi token becomes harder and statistically less rewarding.
Fundamentals are not your friend in a bull market. Don't get cheeky: keep it simple and move in size on easy bets.
BlackRock's Bitcoin $BTC ETF just became the fastest in history to hit $80 Billion in AUM. About 5x faster than the previous best which was Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF $VOO