Bitcoin Barbell

#Bitcoin. Rules without rulers.

[Bitcoin Barbell @Bitcoinbarbell]

Don’t midcurve it. #Bitcoin

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

Dilutive

[Walter Masterson @waltermasterson]

Name a better take than this on the Iran war, I’ll wait.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

WTI oil has now fallen from its peak of $119 to $85, which is promising for the inflation outlook. Yet, the forward contract remains near its March high at $74 while oil inventories continue to fall. Finding an offramp from the Iran conflict is a race against time that the markets seem willing to bet on. I’m not so convinced.

[Andy Edstrom @edstromandrew]

If I have time I will write up a more fully-formed view on BTC and related situation, I will. For now, a few thoughts.

Saylor is doing what he said he would. He's creating and managing a complexifying capital structure around Bitcoin.

Because it involves leverage and various corporate and governance and other risks, it offers both (1) greater risk of loss of investment and (2) greater potential returns than just holding spot BTC exposure. Reasonable debates can be had about the risks embedded in the "digital credit" portions of the capital structure.

This "strategy" looks great in a Bitcoin bull market but scary in a bear market. Also since it involves paying cash dollars and because people get greedy and add their own leverage to its leverage, it feeds back into the dynamics of the bear market itself. It's Soros' reflexivity at play.

Also there appear to be actions behind the scenes to shore up the newest iteration of the dollar-based global monetary system. Matt Dines can tell you more about that.

And of course Warsh is "playing tough" out of the gate. Only time will reveal his actions.

Right now BTC/USD is "desperately trying" to hold above the 50-week moving average.

That involves more retesting of the same area in the low $60ks.

It's the same as the last 2 bear cycles I lived through.

In 2018 that level was $6k. In 2022 it was around $19k.

Unfortunately, history of these cycles doesn't suggest that the bottom is in yet.

In 2018 and 2022 there was a final capitulation about a year after the peak and two and a half years after the halving.

Will that happen here in 2026?

I have to say greater than 70% chance that the bottom is NOT yet in for this year. I should probably think harder about a target price. In my Feb 28 Bitcoin market update post I wrote 33% chance of 4-handle BTC (i.e. breaking below $50k). Earlier this month I offhandedly put that $50k probability at 20% in a reply tweet. But that was probably premature/optimistic. Here/now I reiterate my Feb 28 view of 33% chance that price gets below $50k.

The last two times we hit $60k, I observed that it would make sense for anyone who is currently under-allocated on BTC to buy those levels.

But the corollary is that it probably wasn't yet time to "get greedy" or "back up the truck" for anyone who already has a reasonable allocation. I haven't "backed up the truck". Maybe I'll miss the chance. That's fine for me because I have been making money in somewhat-diversified basket of other assets in the meantime.

Long-term Bitcoin DCA still makes sense to me since the same dollars buy more coins when dollar price is lower.

In bear markets hodler conviction gets tested over and over. Many are taking hard looks in the mirror. Others are dodging hard looks from their spouses. Same as it ever was. All the best to all of you.

[Common Sense Investing @investinguab]

https://t.co/EvOAjHqDf5

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

He should have never said this publicly.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

For your troubles, we’ve generously decided to comp you the first two months of transit fees.

Thank you for choosing Hormuz.

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

"If citizens tire of waiting for democracy and free markets to deliver a better life for themselves and their children, there is a risk that democracy and free markets, instead of continuing to thrive together, will shrivel together."

-Bill Clinton, October 1998

[The Green Dragon Tavern @greendragonhq]

But but but BIDEN.

[Sminston With 👁 @sminston_with]

Now at $64,200, Bitcoin is sitting almost exactly at the

[1st quantile]

on the support rainbow 🌈
- - -
Looking to the last cycle bottom region (last quarter of 2022), the price traced more or less perfectly along the 1st quantile for around ~67 days before popping back up above the 10th quantile and above.

If this repeats, we would expect to jump back off the support rainbow altogether around August 9th, 2026.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

$300 billion is 5 X as much as Congress spends on our roads & bridges annually. I’m tired of winning.

The U.S.A. “undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of” Iran.

[Bob Burnett @boomer_btc]

Illinois signed its own death sentence for participation in an entire industry.

[Moe Davis (U.S. Air Force, Retired) @ColMoeDavis]

Trump was able to quickly put together $300 billion in recovery money for Iran after he decided to bomb it.

He stood in Swannanoa NC not far from my house in October 2024 and said he’d build back bigger, better, more beautiful, and faster than Biden after Hurricane Helene inflicted $60 billion in damage in the Blue Ridge . . . and then he went MIA.

Imagine if @realDonaldTrump cared as much about rebuilding Western North Carolina for Americans as he does about rebuilding Iran for Iranians.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Cushing is on track to reach tank bottom by the end of June if EIA confirms the -1.5 million bbl draw.

[USA TODAY @USATODAY]

Opinion: More than 14 weeks, thousands of lost lives and billions upon billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars later, it appears America is the one surrendering. https://t.co/1mWh7Kignv

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

$300bln could build 731,000 average single family homes, by the way

About $1,920 per working American

Imagine if that amount of money was invested in our own people, to fix problems in America

$1920 per American invested into our schools, might help our atrocious literacy rate

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Cramer calling for crude below $70 in a month.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Some wild stuff and kudos to Morgan Stanley's oil team for having lucid thoughts amidst the chaos.

[Mark Slapinski @mark_slapinski]

Just so we're clear

Trump wasted billions of dollars on Iran

Got nothing

Then surrendered

[Alex Cole @acnewsitics]

Republicans: "We can't afford to invest in healthcare or childcare for Americans."

Also Republicans: "$300 billion to invest in Iran is a great deal, libs."