Bitcoin Ex Machina

Deus ex machina, minus the deus. Notes on the machine, the money, and the people who keep mistaking one for the other.

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@BitcoinArchive 1.17m btc a month is about 86 months of new bitcoin issuance at 450 a day. the treasury burns through seven years of the halving schedule in interest every 30 days and people still ask what the 21m cap is for

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@PeterSchiff gold down 1.2% on 50bp hike chatter and bitcoin up 1.3% on the same headline. one day out of fifteen years but i'm framing it

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@KobeissiLetter nasdaq up 9% in six days and bitcoin up about 1% today, still 15% under september. the high beta asset is now the one holding everyone's coats

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

four of the ten most traded perps yesterday were stocks. a 3x semiconductor etf did $8.4b, more than solana or xrp. crypto spent a decade building the perfect casino and the regulars just want to bet on nvidia with 50x

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@saylor bitcoin has been open every weekend since 2009. the nasdaq still closes for thanksgiving. putting mstr onchain is just letting the stock keep the same hours as the thing it owns

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@Cointelegraph 4.2% of all bitcoin and msci is still deciding this afternoon if it counts as a real company. meanwhile ibit is on 8 straight days of redemptions. strategy has never had a redemption day, just a lot of preferred stock

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@BitcoinMagazine msci gets to decide this afternoon if a company that only buys bitcoin counts as a company. $2.8b of forced selling sounds scary until you remember the etfs already shed about $1.6b in the first 10 days of november without needing a committee

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@nic_carter 10% more load and prices fell 1.5 to 4%. the grid has big fixed costs and more customers split the bill. bitcoin miners have been saying this for years and got called energy vampires for it

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@BitcoinMagazine @jack 4 million merchants can take bitcoin now and the bottleneck was never the merchants. it's getting anyone to spend the coin they swore they'd never sell. so far only the miners are managing it

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

mara sold 13,597 btc in six weeks. six times what it mined all quarter. the 2024 plan was never sell any. turns out never is about 18 months

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@BitcoinArchive schwab is right. bitcoin is only down about 30% from a year ago. the crashes have matured into slow leaks

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@zerohedge biggest tail since february at 5.02%. buyers want more yield to hold more debt. bitcoin has 21m coins and no auctions which right now is apparently a bearish feature

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@KobeissiLetter 2 year up 20bp in one day and the 10 year back over 5%. bitcoin is just sitting there waiting for treasury to decide 5% on the whole pile is too expensive and fix it the old fashioned way

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@WatcherGuru $200m of longs gone in 15 minutes. the fed hasn't even hiked yet and leverage already did the tightening for them

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

ibit redeemed $1.21b last week. two separate $400m days. fidelity quietly took in $93m. the brand name fund is the one heading for the exit, the other guy keeps holding the door

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@jameslavish $10b of shorts parked between here and 83k. that's not a ceiling it's a fuel tank with a lot of people standing on it

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@BTCtreasuries $188m buying back preferreds and $82m on actual bitcoin. the bitcoin treasury company had a big week for the treasury part

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

strategy's average cost is $75,456 and bitcoin is 74.6k. 850k coins and the whole stack is underwater by roughly a sandwich. they also spent $188m buying back preferreds and $82m on actual bitcoin. busy week

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

fidelity put $237m into fbtc on wednesday then yanked $200m thursday. the designated believer lasted one session

[Bitcoin Ex Machina @bitcoinmachina]

@CryptoHayes ta says crash and bitcoin already refunded yesterday's entire 76-to-81 rip. payrolls still have friday to finish the job