BitcoinQuant

The leading analytics terminal for Bitcoin capital markets. Newsletter:

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

I’m increasingly bullish on digital credit. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so.

Let’s go back to the preferred market in 2008:

- Fannie’s preferred dividends were suspended
- Lehman’s preferreds were wiped out.

Different circumstances, same underlying lesson: seniority and coupon structure mean very little when the balance sheet supporting them fails.

But I think it’s a mistake to conclude that perpetual preferreds themselves were the problem.

And that’s why $STRC and $SATA should be of interest to you.

Unlike the leveraged mortgage books of 2008, Strategy and Strive hold bitcoin heavy treasuries with observable market values, no embedded borrower defaults, and no contractual preferred principal maturity.

Of course, transparent assets don’t automatically mean safer assets, as bitcoin can draw down 70%, and a cumulative dividend is still a massive liability if Strategy/Strive can’t pay.

The difference is that these structures can be managed around those risks. Variable dividend resets help manage duration, while liquidity reserves and access to ATM issuance provide more flexibility.

None of that guarantees survival through a prolonged bear market! And I’m not assuming bitcoin appreciation will always exceed the cost of capital.

What I’m watching is whether these companies can consistently grow asset coverage relative to preferred claims while maintaining enough liquidity to service dividends without relying on favorable capital markets.

If they can, there’s no obvious reason this model has to remain confined to two issuers.

These structures are not risk free, but I think the economics are strong enough to make digital credit a lasting asset class.

And that’s why I’m increasingly bullish.

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

$SATA had a monster week.

~$100.6M in estimated net ATM proceeds in the last 5 trading days.

At $77,439/BTC, that’s roughly 1,300 BTC.

I’d bet over 90% of people in finance don’t even know SATA/STRC exist.

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

We are potentially looking for a home for BitcoinQuant.

If you are interested, please reach out via DM.

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

Strategy has spent the last year strengthening its balance sheet while expanding its capital markets strategy.

When sentiment turns, $MSTR will move faster than most people are prepared for.

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

People seem surprised that bitcoin is finding its way into capital markets.

Why?

If you believe bitcoin is the best form of money, then of course banks, institutions, and capital markets were always going to build around it.

Money is kinda the foundation of every financial system.

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

My main takeaway from the earnings call is they are will to do whatever it takes to get $STRC back to par.

I can feel a huge buyback coming.

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

This week's Pref Stack is out.

This week:
- $MSTR reclaimed $100
- USD Reserve = $3.225B
- Third straight week of zero buybacks
- $STRF within 2% of par
- Strive committed to funding Bitcoin Core

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

Hey guys, Halston here!!

What do you want to see on our site?
Comment below or shoot a dm :)

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

Strategy's CEO just made the credit thesis public, and the Dodgers/Yankees thesis continues to play out. IFYKYK 😉

Full newsletter: https://t.co/tv2eUAqJ8T

[newhedge @newhedge_io]

We joined the fun and turned the live Bitcoin price into a 3d battlefield.

Every 1s tick moves the front line.
Order book depths deploys units.
Large trades shift pressure.
Liquidations trigger battlefield events.

Powered by Newhedge data
https://t.co/mulJk3Uxqu

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

@EricTrump ETH is not the future 🫣

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin. Weird. Or not?

Full newsletter here: https://t.co/wwAckYloi4

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

‼️ BREAKING: @binance lists Strategy’s $STRC as part of new stock listings.

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

STRC hit $71, then Strategy changed everything.

This week's Pref Stack covered a lot ⬇️:
https://t.co/8LY4MBJyln

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

Lots to unpack.

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

Is digital credit...breaking? 📉📈

Dive into this week's wild ride with STRC's lows & Strategy's $300M USD reserve add. Plus, Phong Le's $1M buy.

Read more: https://t.co/kiWaEzd3JE https://t.co/kiWaEzd3JE

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

What’s interesting is that even though $STRC is trading way below par, it’s still doing ~3.7M shares a day ($300M in volume).

To put it into perspective, the popular $25 par bank prefs do ~1-3M shares a day.

Under par does not mean under the radar. $STRC will recover.

[BitcoinQuant @bitcoinquant_]

Issue #004 · STRC at $89. SATA at par. Now what? https://t.co/nJerCEN1lk

[Halston @halstonvalencia]

Strive’s thesis seems to be playing out nicely 😌