BitRay

Unapologetically #Bitcoin only. Yield = Risk. Beware of “Crypto” and Influencers.

[Sachin Jose @Sachinettiyil]

A blessed Feast of the Sacred Heart of Jesus!

[Jason Ai. Williams @GoingParabolic]

A long post on why the bottom for Bitcoin is not in

Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders

Currently it is $53.6k

Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price

2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the Realised Price of $5

2015 → BTC bottomed at $152, about 49% below the Realised Price of $300

2018 → BTC bottomed at $3.2k, about 47% below the Realised Price of $6k

2022 → BTC bottomed at $15.4k about 34% below the Realised Price of $23.3k

58%, 49%, 47%, 34% – see a pattern forming?

My prediction for the next Bitcoin bottom is the Realised Price minus 17%

In other words → $44,488 USD

Bookmark this because I know I'm right

Write it down.

[𝔊𝔯á𝔦𝔫𝔫𝔢 🕊️☘️ @GrainneMcD92925]

“My Immaculate Heart will be your refuge and the way that will lead you to God.”

Our Blessed Mother, May 13 1917 🕊️

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

I'm here to think out loud and share opinion, free from influence, bias, and need for endorsement.

I share what I observe and believe to be true. If a view, position, or statement bothers you, that's your problem to wrestle with, not mine.

[John Carvalho @BitcoinErrorLog]

I've never been more happy that the Bitcoin price is going down.

Drain the swamp.

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

The Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Journey ‘Model Portfolio’ has made its first buy in 3.5yrs. Picking up 10BTC at $65,000. Moving up to around a 60% BTC allocation.

The model can always be found here >> https://t.co/cYCKmcJ4TZ

A new 4 YR Cycle video will be published tomorrow morning.

FYI - I very much doubt the 4 Yr Cycle has bottomed, however at this level it makes sense to begin some re accumulation, as the possibility of only a retest of the Feb lows to mark the 4yr cycle low is possible. That would be the best Bull Case. Dry powder remains for a more tradition Cycle Low around the Q3 period.

Reminder - The 4 Year Model is not designed to trade often, intends to always have solid allocation to Bitcoin (even when a top is defined), does not try to time tops, but rather waits for trend breakdown on a monthly timeframe, and is ultimately designed as a HODL strategy with strategic (well defined HTF) trades to add Bitcoin over time. As evident by only 8 trades in 8 years.
If you're looking for more aggressive Spot positioning over the Weekly and 4 year Cycles that content is published on the Bitcoin Live website.

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

I largely think of "crypto" as a failed asset class at this point.

I've written about the causes multiple times. Mainly, most crypto assets are worthless, or have dreadful value accrual, and most founders have abused the lack of guardrails and dumped on people indiscriminately, or are outright scammers.

On top of that we had the Memecoins SuperBullshitCycle, a trend that brought the worst out of people, and sucked everyone's souls & pockets dry. And then came the never-ending wave of DeFi hacks, which has dramatically increased since last April.

This can seem contradictory, as adoption of "crypto" is surging:

> Stablecoin adoption continues growing fast
> Politicians in the US are openly pro crypto
> Tradfi is looking at tokenizing everything
> Usage of equities & commodities perps is exploding in offshore and DeFi exchanges
> The US is in the early stages of adopting perps
> Prediction markets are becoming part of everyone's daily lives

These are more "blockchain" than "crypto", although there are some exceptions with a token in those fields, most of which have been performing very well in recent months. A few among those exceptions even distribute most revenue to holders via buybacks (Hyperliquid in particular), which is what every investor actually wants to see to be invested in a good business rather than a fleeting narrative.

We also have the privacy category. The one old school crypto category that is not liquid diarrhea. The world needs private non-custodial stores of value.

Crime in particular needs privacy, as proven by the DoJ confiscation of $15 billion in Bitcoin from Cambodia's pig butchering farms, legal filing for which was submitted on October 8, 2025 (coincidentally right before 10/10). Of course, everyone needs privacy, not just criminals, but crime flows are real, and large.

The asset attracting the most flows in this niche is Zcash. Zcash's recent performance has been fascinating, as it has been trending higher with bitcoin trending lower, a sign of real reallocation among bitcoiners.

Another crypto category that is not dead is the "AI" category, full of high flying, fundamentally lacking, narrative driven tokens. The standout exception is Venice, a private AI platform with growing users and revenue, whose tokens are directly backed by the business rather than a narrative.

So one could say old "crypto" is a failed asset class, but from the ashes come new beginnings, and the new face of crypto is one heavily dominated by the needs of Tradfi, prediction markets, AI, and privacy.

Crypto sucks. Long live crypto.

[Today in History @TodayinHistory]

Voltaire passed away today in 1778.

There are two quotes of his I always come back to:

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

and

“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.”

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis CONFIRMS a historic move to ABOLISH property taxes for all Florida homeowners who live here as their primary residence

"If you're a Florida resident...we want that TO BE TAX FREE!"

It's headed to voters on the ballot, and a schedule will be set to GET RID OF THEM! 🔥

"This ballot measure will do an opening salvo of raising it, the exemption to $250,000 adjusted for inflation so they can't play games. That will be 60% of Florida homesteaders tax free."

"Then as they raise it, the legislature will be able to raise that and have a process to do that. Once you get to 500,000 limit, that's 92% of homeowners and then on and on it goes from there."

"But if we don't give homeowners relief, Maria, by 2032, they're going to be taking in 83 billion!"

"So that would mean 32 billion in 2019, 13 years later, it goes to 83 billion. That is not sustainable."

"And so this is really a historic opportunity to have more money in people's pockets and to actually have their home be their private property that the government just can't use as a piggy bank." @GovRonDeSantis

Florida about to make history!

[NUCLR GOLF @NUCLRGOLF]

🚨⛳️🏌️ #NEW — English Pro golfer Matt Travis has been accused of stealing someone’s trackman in a detailed reddit post with screenshots to back the allegations. Matt’s IG account looks to have been deleted / set to private.

(Via: francheggo/reddit)

[BitRay @BitRay4]

@NUCLRGOLF The ball is in the cup. Ace

[Wall Street Memes @wallstmemes]

Elon Might Be Secretly Planning A SpaceX-Tesla Merger Ahead Of IPO, Here’s Why That’s Genius

Read Blog: https://t.co/mAz2rbHgmv

[Sean @scs_real]

The greatest one hit wonder, in the history of humanity, was released on this day, 41 years ago.

Yes, you are that old.

You're welcome America

[All day Astronomy @forallcurious]

🚨: Study shows the most unforgettable childhood memories are family vacations between ages 5 to 10.

[BitRay @BitRay4]

@Puzzlesonly 30

[Matt Van Swol @mattvanswol]

🚨WOW!!!

Tim Sparks has confirmed he purchased 80 PIZZA HUTS and brought back EVERYTHING that made them iconic!

Pac-Man is back.
Salad bar is back.
Red cups are back.
Booths for families.

"I want to rebuild places for families to connect and put their phones down..."

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

Mom used to say, "The wrong one will find you in peace and leave you in pieces, and the right one will find you in pieces and lead you to peace."

[BitRay @BitRay4]

What a voice.