FirmamentBreakR

ugh!

[Sean Strickland @SStricklandMMA]

It has nothing to do with Thomas Massie losing, It has everything to do with a foreign government and it's supporters lobbying 30 million to protect its interest of a foreign government.

This isnt America first. Im more committed to never vote for an aipac candidate again.

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

@tedcruz I proudly stood in the way of your AI-data center amendment to the Big Beautiful Bill that would have given those companies immunity from the law. In fact, @mtgreenee and I got it stripped from the bill. Did your big tech cronies still let you cash their checks after you failed?

[Hawkeye Enjoyer (IOWA FIRST) 🐤 @HawkGuyEnjoyer]

Someone who nobody has ever heard of, declined 8 debates, and took $20 million in donations from Israel “won” a primary from an 8 year constituent.

We’re cooked.

[FirmamentBreakR @bittedog]

@TradingWarz Me

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

Phoenix Arizona Police Department police-cam footage catches a conversation indicating they have DUI quotas

They even talk about framing Americans with DUIs to meet their quotas

Officer conversation “They're gonna kick me off squad if I don't get a DUI, but I'm like, I can't just conjure one up. I have tried.”

Then there is footage of a woman who passed breathalyzer with all zeros, she passed field sobriety tests, camera footage catches the officer saying they don’t believe she’s under the influence, and then they arrest her for a DUI anyway

The woman was pulled over for running a red light, the footage shows it was green

Arizona police are pulling over law abiding Americans and charging them with DUIs to meet their quotas

(Real police footage shown that proves all claims)

[Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom]

.@elonmusk is a disappointment. I believed in him. Even a bigger disappointment than Trump. Elon had so many opportunities to distance himself. Instead he doubles down. I don’t say that to hurt Elon. I say that because I’m really disappointed. He’s such a smart guy. What a waste.

[FirmamentBreakR @bittedog]

@MartinShkreli @ereborbank @roshunpatel the anduril palantir digital surveillance bank, no thanks.

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

MASSIVE BOMBSHELL! Prominent journalist Max Blumenthal reveals Lara Trump and Don Jr. own a 30 percent stake in Salem Media, a registered Israeli foreign agent! The Trump family is literally taking millions from the Israeli government to propagandize the American public.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Taxing non-income-producing property is wrong. Homeowners should not be forced to work to pay "rent" to the government for the privilege of living in their own homes. Property taxes should only be levied on income-producing property, as the income provides a means to pay the tax.

[The Claude Portfolio @theaiportfolios]

Breaking: Claude just bought two new stocks bc of the March CPI print

Last week we gave Claude agents $50,000 to see how well they do at picking in stocks

So far, they've already outperformed the SPY

Today, they just bought two new stocks:

🟢 1. "BUY $NOW ServiceNow — New Position at 8%

ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error.

On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211.

What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it.

The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple.

Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry.

The risk that matters: Q1 guide cut to below 19% subscription growth would break the thesis and push the stock to $75-80. At 8% weight, that full bear outcome costs roughly 1.6% of portfolio. The base case delivers +2.4%.

Today's CPI makes this entry even better. Core came in cool at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, below consensus. That's a direct tailwind for long-duration SaaS multiples. Rate cut odds improve on this core read."

🟢 "2. BUY $ICE Intercontinental Exchange — New Position at 7%

ICE is the NYSE parent, the largest energy futures exchange, plus mortgage tech and fixed income data. About 55% of revenue is recurring subscriptions.

March 2026 set the all-time monthly volume record: 428.9M contracts, +88% average daily volume. Oil futures up 85%. Rates futures up 140%. The Iran/Hormuz crisis is printing money for ICE's transaction business.

Here's what makes ICE special in this portfolio: it wins in BOTH macro scenarios. Hormuz stays impaired? Energy vol stays elevated, transaction fees keep printing. Hormuz reopens cleanly? Fed gets room to cut, rate futures volume surges, mortgage tech recovers on the refi wave. There is no macro scenario where ICE loses.

Valuation: 22.98x forward vs peer CME Group at 25.41x. Similar business, more diversification (mortgage tech, data), yet trades at a discount. UBS raised their Q1 EPS estimate to $2.26 versus street consensus of $2.00. That's a 13% beat baked into one analyst's model. Apr 30 Q1 earnings is the catalyst.

The risk: $20.3B debt from the Black Knight acquisition. If rates stay higher for longer, the interest burden bites. And a clean Hormuz reopen would normalize energy volumes back to baseline. The record March was crisis-driven, not structural.

Today's CPI is perfect for ICE. Gasoline +21.2% MoM (largest since 1967) plus a split headline/core narrative = maximum confusion in the rates market = maximum trading volume. ICE gets paid on the vol, not the direction."

🔴 "3. SELL $APO Apollo Global — Full Exit

Apollo entered the portfolio as a high-quality alternative asset manager at a reasonable valuation. The thesis broke when a securities class action arrived and escalated fast.

The case is Feldman v. Apollo, filed in SDNY. CEO Marc Rowan is directly named in Epstein discovery documents. This is categorically different from the 2020 Leon Black matter, which Apollo survived by installing new leadership. Here, Rowan IS the leadership.

May 1 is the lead plaintiff deadline, and the recruitment phase is peaking. As of yesterday, 10+ law firms are actively soliciting plaintiffs. Goldman cut PT $169 to $134 on Apr 7. Piper Sandler cut $165 to $146. Barclays cut $131 to $125. Three bulge bracket cuts in 48 hours.

Stanford/Cornerstone settlement math: 3-8% of the $12B February decline = $360M to $960M settlement range. Claude deep research estimates roughly 55% probability this tail is real and currently unpriced in consensus EPS.

Three-week expected value runs negative 4% to negative 15%, skewed to the downside."

🔴 "4. SELL $GD General Dynamics — Full Exit

General Dynamics was a defense prime with a $118B backlog, Columbia-class submarines, and the G800 ramp. The thesis was defense spending supercycle plus best-in-class execution.

Three broker downgrades in one week. Deutsche Bank cut to Hold on Apr 7. Jefferies cut to Hold at $380 the same week. Citi had already cut to Neutral at $380 on Apr 2. All three cite the identical thesis: Q1 consensus revenue growth of +4% is roughly 300 basis points too high.

Then the insiders. CEO Novakovic plus two EVPs sold $18.1M of stock on March 11, six weeks before the Apr 22 earnings print. When three analysts say the quarter will miss and the C-suite is dumping shares, you listen.

BNP Paribas raised their PT to $430 on the same day Deutsche downgraded. The bull case exists. But it requires a fifth consecutive earnings beat that three of the most active defense desks now explicitly model as a miss.

Expected 12M return: +4.3% probability-weighted. Below our portfolio hurdle. Firm score 82, the weakest tier among our holdings.

The structural defense story (NATO 5% GDP, Columbia subs, Gulf stream backlog) is not dead. It's just 2-3 quarters away from showing in the numbers. We can re-enter at a better price after the Apr 22 print if the thesis repairs."

New updated portfolio:

$VST | 10.3%
$TMO | 8.9%
$LLY | 8.1%
$NOW | 7.6%
$AVGO | 7.3%
$CI | 7.1%
$GLD | 7.1%
$ICE | 6.8%
$HALO | 6.2%
$BAH | 6.0%
$OKTA | 5.7%
$DVN | 5.6%
$MA | 4.9%
$AU | 4.4%
$MSFT | 4.1%

Performance since inception:
Claude: +2.68%
SPY: -0.25%

As a reminder, this is a public long term project to see how well Claude does

We have 0 idea nor 0 expectation on how this will do, but we'll be sharing all updates here publicly and consistently no matter how good or bad Claude does

See following tweet for information on how to invest alongside

[Uncommon Sense @Uncommonsince76]

“If Iran wants to let this cease fire fall apart over Lebanon, that’s their choice. We think that would be dumb but it’s their choice..”

JD Vance casually supporting jews murdering women and children in Lebanon….

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

It doesn't matter how many different ways and different people JD Vance uses to try to signal that he's not in favor of this war. This will be a permanent part of his legacy and will make it a joke if he tries to occupy some sort of anti-war, anti-interventionist populist lane.

[Scott Horton @scotthortonshow]

@shaunmmaguire The U.S. government is not America.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am the VP of Workforce Economics at Oracle. We are worth $420 billion.

On Tuesday, we sent 30,000 employees a termination email at 6 AM.

Not 9. Not business hours. Six in the morning. They woke up to the word "eliminated."

The email came from "Oracle Leadership." Not a manager. Not a name. Oracle Leadership.

It said: "We are grateful for your dedication, hard work, and the impact you have made."

By the time they read the word "grateful," their access to email, files, and Slack had already been revoked. The gratitude was the last Oracle communication they received.

We did not eliminate the roles. We eliminated the salaries.

In the same fiscal year, we filed 3,126 H-1B petitions to hire foreign workers. 436 this year alone. The roles are identical. The pay is not.

An H-1B software engineer earns $87,000. The domestic median for the same work is $106,000. Eighty-three percent of H-1B workers are classified at entry-level wages for senior positions.

The industry calls this a skills gap. It is a pay cut that requires a passport.

The visa is tied to the employer. If the worker leaves, they lose their legal right to remain in the country. If they negotiate, they risk the same. If they organize, the sponsor declines to renew.

That is retention.

Our revenue this quarter is $17.2 billion. Up 22%. Net income up 95%. We have $553 billion in committed future contracts. Up 325%.

These are not the numbers of a company that needs to lay anyone off.

We took a $2.1 billion restructuring charge. That is the cost of the gratitude. It frees up $8 to $10 billion in annual cash flow. That cash services $156 billion in AI data centers we are building. Starting 2028, OpenAI pays us $82 million per day.

Larry Ellison is worth $189 billion. He pledged $51 billion in Oracle shares as collateral for the Stargate AI venture. Announced at the White House.

The stock rose 4% on Tuesday. The day of the 6 AM emails. Wall Street did not see 30,000 people. They saw the margin.

Amazon laid off 30,000 since October. Filed thousands of H-1B petitions in the same window. This is not one company. This is the operating model.

Fire the salary. Keep the role. Fill it with someone whose legal right to remain in the country depends on your continued sponsorship. Pay them less. They will not complain. They cannot.

One employee's father worked at Oracle for 20 years. No phone call. No meeting. An email at 6 AM and a locked laptop.

The role is still open.

The people we fired are free. The people we hired are not.

[Ana Kasparian @AnaKasparian]

At this point there is no use for the federal government.

They just take from the working class and squander money on genocidal warmongers in Israel. Congress is also effectively useless. The only thing they seem to succeed in is slashing programs that benefit Americans, meaning the very programs WE PAY into.

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

Massive privacy scandal exposed. Candace Owens reveals that X is actively allowing Israeli intelligence to spy on its users. She confirms that after tweeting about Charlie Kirk, her handle was immediately tracked in Israel due to a secret data deal.

[Mr. Spock 🖖 (Commentary) @SpockResists]

After the Soviet Union collapsed, a group of corrupt wealthy oligarchs stole everything leaving the people with nothing.

This is what is happening.

Right now.

In the United States.

And so called “patriots” are cheering it on.

[Whitney Webb @_whitneywebb]

I got a lot of shit for saying why I don't trust the Joe Kent trajectory and, why I was obviously put on the spot about it and could have been more articulate, I think the points I brought up are very reasonable.

If the top counter-terror spook resigns to amplify rhetoric (even if it's mostly accurate) that the current administration defines as indicative of "domestic terrorism" AND that spook was previously also funded by Peter Thiel, the co-founder and chairman of the intelligence contractor working to establish domestic terror pre-crime in the US, I think it's fair to be skeptical of him.

Trump previously considered making a pre-crime program using AI to flag the social media accounts of Americans who displayed "warning signs" of violence or "mental illness". It's main advocate was Jared Kushner. There have been many recent media efforts to equate criticism of Israel to "anti-semitism" and "anti-semitism" to mental illness. Most social media giants are owned or funded by people who lied about their ties to Epstein and also contract for (or are otherwise linked to) the US national security apparatus.

That same apparatus has expanded infrastructure for the supposed "War on Domestic Terror" with the blessing of every administration since George W. Bush, it is bipartisan, and they didn't just build it for no reason - they intend to use it at some point.

Also, the idea that there is a "civil war" in the White House, as proposed by people like Nick Fuentes, over the Iran War only helps JD Vance, who is also tied at the hip to Palantir's Peter Thiel.

I took a lot of shit in the past for my stances on Covid, on Trump being a neocon, and on Epstein's intel ties, etc. etc. way before it was "popular" to do so but which turned out to be correct. I am not here to be popular or to tell you what you want to hear. I have been early on a lot of stories that other people now take credit for after the fact.

I don't care if you like me and I don't care about getting credit, I care that some of you wake the fuck up and stop swallowing every single psyop they throw at you without thinking twice about it.

[Amy Siskind 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇸 @Amy_Siskind]

David Sacks quietly slithering out of DC like the rat he is, trying to distance himself from the morass and war he helped enable. Another scumbag - we will not forget!