Summarization of $TGTX Jeffries conf call
Peak revenues is now expected to double and hit beyond > $5B per year whilst trading at a market cap of $6B with a patent expiration through and beyond 2042 (subcutaneous patent will extend it to beyond 2045)
Do the maths of the annuity revenues with an annual relapse rate of 0.011 (1 relapse in 88 years)
It's a big month for investor conferences... many of our top holdings are presenting multiple times.
Yesterday it was $HIMS, $TMDX, $MDB, $PRCT, $CIFR and several others.
Today it's $CRDO, $ALAB, $APP, $RDDT, $HROW, $PLTR, $NBIS, $CRWV, $EOS, $RBRK, $LITE and several others.
I'll keep this thread going with notes from some of the presentations.... (below is $TMDX, $HROW, $HIMS)
$TMDX (CEO) - mostly repeating stuff from the last couple investor presentations and earnings calls... talked about the current investment cycle, OCS 2.0 for heart and lungs, OCS Kidney and CHOPS... I'm growing more excited about CHOPS because I do believe it will be additive and not cannibalistic.
Right now there are approximately 90k transplants every year in the US and Europe, there's another 90k transplants in the rest of the world. 50% of these transplants are using cold storage because preservation times are under 3-4 hours which means they were unlikely to ever use OCS for warm perfusion. Until now, $TMDX never had a product for cold preservation / cold perfusion... going forward they'll have OCS for half the transplant market and CHOPS for the other half of the transplant market.
Last year $TMDX gave their long-term case targets of 10k in 2028, 20k in 2030 and 30k in 2032. Not only has management reiterated these targets multiple times but they've also said it doesn't include CHOPS. I crunched some numbers and I believe CHOPS can add at least 2k cases to the 2028 number, 4k cases to the 2030 number and 6k cases to the 2032 number (all of these increases are conservative).
The biggest takeaway from the presentation yesterday is that Waleed talked about revenue targets for the first time ever and he repeated those targets at least 2x which means he didn't slip up. He meant to share this information and it's very likely he's already discussed these financial targets with his team and got their blessing.
When I heard Waleed share these numbers my jaw dropped because they're above my bull case estimates. It's very clear the market doesn't believe $TMDX can hit these numbers otherwise the stock would not be trading in the highs $60s. It's always possible that Waleed is being too optimistic and discounting possible risks or headwinds however he knows this business and industry better than anyone so I'm going to trust him and his experience.
Waleed said $TMDX can get to $2.5-3.0B within 4-5 years. If we assume $TMDX hits the high end of their range this year it means $757M in 2026 revenues.
In order for $TMDX to get to $3.0B revenues within 5 years... it would be a 31.7% revenue CAGR for the next 5 years... clearly some significant revenue acceleration would need to happen over the next 18-36 months which I believe will happen with OCS 2.0, OCS Kidney, CHOPS and International expansion.
Right now $TMDX is trading at 3.5x NTM revs and 14x NTM ebitda during a period of higher investments and lower margins. Waleed has said that operating margins could hit 30% in the next few years... which could put them on track to have net income margins in the 24% range within 5 years as they're hitting $3.0B in revenues.
Here's how we get to $3.0B within 5 years which is 2032 if we're starting at the end of 2026 which lines up with their 2032 case target of 30k however I believe CHOPS will add at least 6k to that number.
So, lets go with 36k cases in 2032 at an average of $80-85k per case (OCS/CHOPS + NOP) = approx $3.0B revenues
If we assume net income margins can improve to 24% by 2032 which looks more likely after they introduce OCS 3.0 which will allow remote monitoring and a bunch of other cost savers... then net income in 2032 could be $720M... add back the cash... assume 45M shares... using a very reasonable 25x multiple = $460 stock price which is a 41% CAGR over the next 5.5 years.
if they do hit $3B revenues in 2032, it's possible net income margins could be higher than 24%, also possible the market is willing to pay more than 25x earnings because $ISRG currently trades with 2.5x PEG ratio and $TMDX would be growing earnings faster than 30% YoY in 2032 in order to hit the numbers I've outlined above.
$HROW (CEO) - talked about their existing eyecare portfolio, talked about some of their pipeline products including G-MELT, most important thing I heard was reiterating their 2027 Q4 revenue guidance of $250M
As I've stated before, if $HROW gets to that $250M quarterly revenue number by the end of next year... not only would it be a 67.5% CAGR from 2025 Q4 to 2027 Q4... but it would put them on track to do $1.1B revenues in CY2028, likely with 35-40% (or better) ebitda margins which means CY2028 ebitda might be around $400M and right now the stock has an enterprise value of $1.4B... likely a 6-bagger (or better) in the next 2 years if they hit these numbers.
$HIMS (CFO) - nothing new, talked about how they're disrupting healthcare, branded GLPs, building & integrating ai into lots of different aspect of the platform, the Eucalyptus acquisition, growth opportunities in US and non-US, peptides and reiterated 2030 guidance of $6.5B revenues and $1.3B ebitda (which I expect them to raise with Q2 earnings to $7.5B revenues and $1.5B ebitda)
Currently listening to $CRDO presentation then the rest of my day/week is full with replays.
NFA.
DYOR.
*We have positions in all stocks/tickers mentioned in this post.
I've spent years obsessing over 100-baggers.
I recently found Anna Yartseva's study that analyzed 464 ten-baggers over 24 years.
It challenged everything I thought I knew. FCF yield dominated every other factor.
Here's why I'm rebuilding my approach:🧵
This is a deep dive on $MELI.
I’m going to walk through the financials, the balance sheet, and the core engine of the business so you can see exactly where the value is coming from. By the end, you’ll understand why this is not just a fast growing company, but a system that compounds as it scales.
Let’s dive in!
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