The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped 14 basis points today to 5.10%, the highest since June 2007.
The 30-year rose 10bp to 5.39%, the highest since July 2004.
A red-hot S&P Flash PMI showed the fastest US business growth in over five years and rising pricing power, pushing markets to price in more Fed hikes.
A Treasury buyback auction meant to calm long yields fell flat too.
If you learned that gold falls when real yields rise, check the last four years.
Real yields turned positive in April 2022 and have climbed since. Gold rose anyway, because reserve demand became the dominant marginal driver.
The 10-year is now the highest since 2007.
China’s Copper Premium Soars as Buyers Scramble for Supply
Spot copper premiums in China have surged to the highest since 2021, even as prices hover near record levels, underscoring physical supply constraints in the world’s biggest consumer. (Bloomberg)
‼️The global copper market is facing a historic supply squeeze:
China’s spot copper premium jumped to 1,375 yuan per ton, its highest level since November 2021.
The sharp increase highlights tightening supply in the world’s largest copper-consuming market, with domestic inventories still low.
A key driver is weaker overseas supply, with China’s refined copper imports falling -11% MoM in August to 250,173 tonnes, the lowest level since February.
At the same time, downstream processors are expected to increase stockpiling ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, potentially intensifying the near-term supply squeeze.
Meanwhile, copper prices remain near record levels, with LME copper at around $14,577 per ton.
China’s copper market is facing a serious supply squeeze.
People’s inflation expectations play a central role in monetary policymaking, but they’re typically summarized by a single statistic—the mean or median forecast. This kind of summary may miss important information.
In new research, St. Louis Fed economist Michael Owyang and co-authors look at University of Michigan household survey microdata from 1978 to 2019 and posit that the full distribution of inflation expectations is relevant for monetary policy analysis.
Findings:
➡️Households' inflation expectations are, among other things, more dispersed than professional forecasts (i.e., some expect very high inflation).
➡️A shock can reshape the distribution of their inflation expectations without changing the mean.
➡️A shock can increase disagreement among households and shift expectations away from near-target inflation (1% to 3%) and toward the extremes of either deflation or high inflation. A focus on mean expectations alone would miss this shift in beliefs entirely.
Central banks could monitor distributional statistics, not only central tendencies, and interpret different expectation measures as complementary indicators tied to different populations and information environments.
BREAKING: US M2 money supply jumped +$124.9 billion in August, to a record $23.34 trillion.
This marks the 28th consecutive monthly increase, totaling +$2.61 trillion.
YoY, M2 grew +5.7%, its largest YoY increase since June 2022.
This marks a sharp acceleration from +2.0% YoY growth seen in August 2024.
Meanwhile, since the 2020 pandemic, M2 money supply has surged +$7.85 trillion, equivalent to +$1.21 trillion on average per year, or +6.5% annualized growth.
US money creation is picking up speed.
AI infrastructure spending is set to hit $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, or about 3.6% of US GDP a year, making it the largest economic bet in US history, WSJ reports.
In Iran, 1979, the intellectuals, the progressives and the feminists all came together, and decided that, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
So, to topple the regime, they pulled in the Islamists.
The Islamists looked at the intellectuals, the progressives and the feminists, and said, "The enemy of my enemy is my useful fool."
That's exactly what's going on in the United States today.
Folks, don't be taken in.
I believe in American Power— which means being able to control who comes into our country and that the golden ticket of citizenship should belong to Americans first and Americans only.
Your parents were illegal aliens who showed no regard for our nation or its laws when they came here. You should be beyond grateful that a legal loophole allowed you to enjoy the fruits of a first world nation.
Instead, you're working to end immigration enforcement-- telling actual Americans that their birthright doesn't belong to them and that our nation and its culture has no meaning or value to you.
You have no love or appreciation for America because, at the end of the day, you still proudly consider yourself a Guatemalan before you are a citizen of America.
BREAKING: More than 167,000 pounds of beef, pork and goat meat are being recalled nationwide after being produced without required federal inspection, per the US Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service.
REMINDER: Rep. Delia Ramirez proudly declared last year in Spanish, “I am proudly Guatemalan before I am American.”
She is a foreign agent acting on behalf of foreign countries as a representative in the United States Congress.