Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats

Building Every NFL game on one page, and a player's yards split into the job he was given and what he did with it. Numbers, no picks

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Black Swan Stats puts every NFL game on one page and measures each player's workload apart from what he did with it. Injury reports by practice day, usage, matchups, every player's history against the opponent. Numbers, no picks.

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[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Rodgers has 292 and 299 yards the last two weeks, 3 TD each. On third down this season he's 13 of 34, completing 14.5 points below what those throws usually get, and he's been sacked 8 times on 42 dropbacks. That's a 19% sack rate on the down that decides drives. League rate is 6%.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Monangai Sunday had 30 carries, 146 yds, 59% of the carries. Season: 5.4 a carry, +1.11 yds over expected per carry (6th of 30 backs), EPA/carry +0.10 (5th). Swift: 4.5, −0.07, −0.11 (20th). The back who might miss is the one who's been carrying the run game. The one who'll play is the name.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

@JPFinlayNBCS 8.3 yards an attempt against the Giants, 7.0 against everyone else. And this year's Giants have 3 sacks in 4 games, fewest in the league, plus the highest red-zone TD rate allowed. The rush that got him 5 times in 2024 isn't there yet.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Every number for tonight, both sides: https://t.co/yUhGSxZEFU
Data: nflverse. Totals: consensus of 11 books via The Odds API, as of 11:00 AM ET.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Bucky Irving gets the 3rd softest run defense, adjusted for schedule. Problem is Todd Bowles wants a three-way split now, after Sean Tucker scored on 5% of the snaps.

Irving had 0 targets in Daniels' start, after 15 in the three games before.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Javonte Williams had 8 red-zone carries Sunday and scored 3 times. He has 19 on the season, tied for 3rd in the league.

He'll need them. Tampa holds backs to 62 rushing yards a game, 3rd fewest. Tyler Smith is back at left guard tonight, and Tampa ILB SirVocea Dennis is out.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

CeeDee Lamb: 21 targets, 17 catches, 189 yds Sunday, the most of each in a game this season.

Tampa has been the toughest defense on WRs, schedule-adjusted. Chase went 2 for 12 against it.

But Winfield and CB Morrison are out tonight. Two starters down, that tier means less.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Dallas has allowed 9 TD passes this season and doesn't have an interception yet.

Running QBs have done the damage: Jayden Daniels ran for 69 against them (1st half, left game), Dart 54, Lamar 50. Jalon Daniels ran 8 times for 55 in his first start.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Bucs at Cowboys tonight. Tampa is 0-4, every loss by 7 or fewer, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts again with Baker Mayfield out.

Game total 48.5. Team totals: Dallas 28.5, Tampa 20.

What our numbers say to watch:

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

@AdamSchefter Dell comes back to a room where Hutchinson has 16-24% of targets every week and Schultz went from 14 targets/140 yds to 2/9 over the last two.

In 2024, when Dell sat, Hutchinson's targets went from 5.4 to 11.1 a game. The guy who loses work isn't Collins.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

@AdamSchefter Pittman in Pittsburgh - 3 games, 12 targets, 7 catches, 89 yds, 0 TD, 11% target share.

When he sat in week 2 the ball went to Germie Bernard who had 8 targets, 35 yds.. Roman Wilson has had exactly 6 targets in all four games.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

@RapSheet @MikeGarafolo Denver through 4 - 18.5 ppg, 67% neutral pass rate (3rd highest), Nix aDOT 5.4, shortest of any NFL QB this season.

Throwing more and shorter than anyone is a design choice. Payton taking the headset back is admitting whose it was.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

@AdamSchefter @tyschmit Purdy's last two vs Seattle - 34 of 54, 267 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 5 sacks, outscored 54-9.

This year he's +0.57 EPA/dropback (1st) and throwing ~47 yds/game above what his volume normally produces.

Seattle allows 99 WR yds/game, fewest in the league. Pick one of those to believe.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Every defense and who's facing it: https://t.co/sTpPc0hWcl
Data: nflverse.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Week 5's softest matchups, adjusted for schedule

Hurts vs JAX +73, minus Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens
Aaron Jones vs NO +26, most rush yards allowed
Eagles WRs vs JAX +82
McBride vs DET +42

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@NFLFantasy Penix has thrown 25 and 20 times in his two starts while Bijan and Brian Robinson ran 72 times for 451 and 8 TDs. Not much left for a TE playing half the snaps

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Every change this week, team by team: https://t.co/0DCU8dyWQB
Data: nflverse.

[Black Swan Stats | NFL Stats @blackswanstats]

Three backfields that moved in week 4:

Kyle Monangai: 30 carries. Swift had 15, and both were healthy.
Omarion Hampton: down to 35% of the snaps in a three-way split.
Jaylen Warren: 97%, the most by any back in a game this season.