This is what being a a real electable candidate looks like.
Crowley’s ground game is a major disadvantage combined with him being pro-data center, it’s gonna hurt him.
He might win despite it but Hong would have been a much safer bet.
This also hurts the Dem 2028 general election potential because it stuns canvassing infrastructure to be built up.
But that doesn’t matter to the centrist Dems in power.
The next worst Democratic governor in the country. It probably won’t even be close. Lean D but I’m not confident at all that a loser dropout can win the general.
I wonder if Crowley voters can name any of his policy positions or did they vote purely on the basis of the Evers endorsement and the electability argument.
IMO, Crowley is probably slightly favored right now in this right now. Unless the Winnebago result is a Hong nuke (>10 Hong MOV) and the absentees in Milwaukee are middling or worse for him
@Socdem_Michael@electionsjoe All of the last democratic presidential nominees in the 21st century had substantial name recognition before getting the nomination.
@realPrestonHill a big difference. So yes technically a shift required for a D+7 year might need to big, but Im not sure how the math shows that it would be massively bigger than prior modern shifts, only very slight.
@realPrestonHill On #3, Im not sure I agree with your math. Also its funny you left out of 2010, when that shift from 2008 to 2010 was massive. But for example 2020 to 2022 would be like a 6-7 shift to the right, but 2024 to 2026 to be D+7 would be a around 8 point shift. That is not