It's January first...
I'm on the screen looking at the chart, sober, hungry, and the market's as unpredictable as the streets of Gotham. 4 years of trading have turned me into a nocturnal animal. I must choose my trades carefully. It's a big market,
I can't be everywhere
Right now, there’s no real reason for the market to go up. Volatility is climbing, indicators are stretched at the top, and liquidity is drying up. When the market eventually turns, that volatility will only accelerate the move down
They consistently publish bad news whenever we hit resistance and good news at support levels. If BTC can’t hold $50K, we’re likely to see more downside, potentially dropping to the $30K region if the Fed doesn’t take action.
We might face some sort of black swan event next weekend or in the first weeks of May. If that event causes the Fed to consider rate cuts in June and the start of QE, it could be a great time to accumulate. This would be a positive scenario;
Right now, though, the bullish scenario is more likely to play out and $100K seems reasonable. These days and weeks are critical in determining where are we heading.
The gold to silver ratio is going down, and Bitcoin is looking good. It took the monthly fair value gap at $74K, and liquidity has been gathered to the upside. I believe this is the time for ALTCOINS and Bitcoin to shine.
Final Probable Zones
1. Mild ABC: Ends around $60K–$65K
2. Typical correction: Ends around $48K–$52K
3. Brutal macro reset: Ends at $35K–$40K (0.786 zone)
Wave C:
• Often equal to Wave A in length (A = C projection)
• If A = -$35K move ($106K → $70K), then
• C target from $85K B top = $50K
• If deeper A ($106K → $61K), B to $78K, C = $43K