Blaine Hodder

Oil and equity Fintwit. Refinery Supply. Oil trader. Former quant. Chart nerd. Speculator. Up is good. Follow the money. Nothing matters but money flow.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@AdamB1438 $amzn is my favorite here due to margin inflection, but $goog can’t lose either. $meta won’t stop growing either. Makes no sense where these trade. $msft is fine too.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

Market is absolutely giving you a gift right now on the best companies on earth right as they inflect upward on rev growth and margins.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@AdamB1438 Hyperscaler customers are slobbin dong in alleys for more compute and yet they are being punished for investing capacity. Makes no sense at all.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

Lmao.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Jeff Bezos says AI will cause a labor shortage

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

I will own all of $amzn by 2030 at this rate.

[taobanker @taobanker]

$AMZN for 5x 2030 ebitda is lowkey kinda crazy ?

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@puppyeh1 Recursive self improvement can theoretically flip this from a commodity to the single most important niche rapidly though. A one month lead can be a lifetime lead (in theory) with recursive inflection. Now you are probably constrained on compute preventing that, but possible.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

People out slobbin dong in alleys for compute & you all are selling down hyperscalers to single digit PEs while they inflect higher on revenue, margins and ROE. But sure, we are in a bubble. $meta, $goog $msft $amzn

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@ContrarianCurse I don’t see a severe threat to $META. How do you see that playing out? No data is pointing in that direction. As saturation is a worry but revenue is growing rapidly and platform continues to dominate with no threats outside of TikTok and YouTube. Instagram is going nowhere.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

I’m not sure if this is a condemnation of $goog or if once more Jassy just doesn’t understand stonks.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

$amzn could increase headline revenue by 35b a year by replicating this, but they don’t.

[Rittenhouse Research @RHouseResearch]

Google $GOOG selling $35B+ of their chips to their second largest competitor, only to then lease chips from SpaceX $SPCX for ~$1B/month is a real head scratcher.. If Google is as capacity constrained as their $85B equity raise and deal with SpaceX would have you believe, why did they commit to give even a single TPU to Anthropic..?

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

Except the good ones

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Berkshire Hathaway has enough cash to acquire nearly every company in the S&P 500

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@jbulltard1 At least they didn’t spend any money on it.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@jbulltard1 Bro is literally a half blind financier in his mid fifties calling fashion trends. Lmao.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

$GOOG telling the market that AI spend is literally so damn good that they’ll sell the stock to buy it. And yet the market doesn’t like that? They are telling you the ROI is unbelievable. $amzn.

Capex is bad again I guess regardless of ROI.

[Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA]

Canada 🇨🇦. Trudeau and Carney wanted net zero, and they got it: zero growth, zero jobs, and zero productivity.

via Bloomberg

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

What just happened. Half the nasdaq just rotated. $Msft, $mu, $amd winners, $intc, $goog, some other random losers.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

We aren’t in a bubble. You have no trading skills to call a bubble. Michael Lewis will never write a book about you. If you want to get rich just buy stocks. They go up.

[Blaine Hodder @blhodder]

@jbulltard1 I don’t have a fuckin clue what they even do and I concur. What they do makes no difference.

[ Q-Cap  @qcapital2020]

The hardest pill for bears to swallow:

The S&P 500 is up +10.3% YTD, yet the forward P/E has fallen from 22.3x to 21x

This rally hasn’t been driven by speculative multiple expansion

It’s been driven by earnings estimates rising faster than stock prices