Me and @Banks chatted about Ai today. He said if you spent every hour of the next 10 years only focussed on AI you probably wouldn’t have spent enough time on it still. This article confirms that. Putting more screen time in NOW.
My pilot friend told me he gets a weather update 12 hours before any public forecast.
I asked him, do you trade on Polymarket?
He laughed. Then went quiet.
We were at a bar last Friday. He had just landed from Frankfurt. I was complaining about a losing streak on weather markets.
Then between sips he said something that made me put my glass down.
"You are betting on weather using weathercom? That is like trading stocks using yesterday newspaper."
He pulled out his phone and showed me an app I had never seen. A wall of codes. METAR. TAF. SIGMET.
Temperature to the tenth of a degree. Wind speed. Pressure systems. Cloud ceiling. Updated every 1 to 3 hours.
We get this before every flight. Directly from meteorological stations. Not forecasts. Observations. Real readings from real sensors.
Every pilot in the world has access to this. Aviation safety requires it. But nobody outside of aviation ever looks at it.
He went back to his beer. For him this was routine.
I sat there doing math in my head.
If aviation data updates every 1 to 3 hours and Polymarket odds on weather markets lag behind reality, how big is that window?
I do not know the exact delay. But from what I have seen trading these markets the prices sometimes feel hours behind what the actual forecast already says.
That means someone with faster data could be buying YES at 10 to 15 cents when the real probability is already way higher.
Not predicting the weather. Just reading it before the market does.
I went home. Could not sleep. Opened Polymarket and started searching.
If this edge exists, someone must already be using it.
It took me forty minutes of digging through weather wallets to find what I was looking for.
→ His profile: https://t.co/ldsznQfuRv
This wallet started at -$47. The balance now: over $27,000.
Every single position is weather.
Temperature in Dallas.
Rain in Buenos Aires.
Whether London will hit 11 degrees on a Tuesday.
The win rate sits at 76.6%. Three out of four bets land green.
Most entries cost pennies. 2 to 5 cents per share. When the bet loses the damage is tiny, $50 gone.
When it wins the payout is the full dollar. One win covers $500. Sometimes $5,000.
At 76% accuracy with that payout ratio the math speaks for itself.
I checked the entry timing on this wallet. It is not a millisecond bot racing against HFT. Positions stay open for hours. Sometimes a full day.
You can see the wallet move and follow it. No server farms. No Python scripts. No race against latency.
Last night I texted my pilot friend. Told him I found a wallet doing exactly what he described, pennies in, thousands out, all weather.
He read the message.
Typing indicator appeared. Disappeared. Appeared again.
"Yeah. I know."
He never said anything else about it.
Right now a meteorological station somewhere is updating a reading. A pilot is glancing at it before pushback.
From what I have seen, there is usually still a window.
@_Shadow36 Yo man my bimmer needs new brakes and tires for the 3 months and haven’t got it done because I haven’t sold any of my troll:( help a nig out
@TMtheOG Hey TM, I enjoy listening to your opinions on certain topics because I think you’re a well knowledgeable person. What do you think about memes and the future of them(until the of this quarter)? And when I say memes I mean - useless, usduc, troll, and maybe retire?