Archaeologists have discovered huge, spiral-shaped cylindrical structures stretching over 600 meters (about 2,000 feet) straight down beneath the Great Pyramid of Giza. These massive findings, located more than 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) below the pyramid's base, hint at enormous hidden constructions deep underground.
A lot of FUD is trying to be created around #Bitcoin & some bears are still very vocal calling for a crash.
But is it actually true? If so, this would fundamentally contradict the obvious cycle dynamics. Let's take a closer look. Read the following 4 key findings!
1. First, we need to distinguish between halving and bear/bull cycles. Their duration stays roughly the same (~1300 - ~1400 days)
2. Second, we need to take a look at the different phases. Bear market (I), accumulation (II), pre-halving bull (III) & post-halving bull (IV). It becomes evident that we slowly see a shift towards shortened phases I & II, whereas III and IV are being stretched out.
3. Will this be the case now as well? There are strong reasons supporting this: ETF narrative (billions of fresh money entering), ATH before halving (first time!) and an overall matured market with a strong investor base.
4. Covering the argument with the matured market: When we previously saw dips of up to 50% in bull markets, these have been smoothed out and now make "only" ~20% so far. The reason is an increasing shift of the supply/demand ratio towards the demand side.
So, in sum, there is currently little evidence we might see a nearing crash. On the contrary, we believe that the approaching halving will initiate another strong leg up.
A simple explanation of why your Solana transactions are failing:
- Lots of network activity - memecoin trading, defi, arbitrage bots, Ore mining(?) - everyone is trying to submit txns
- Solana nodes are overwhelmed and can't process every tx that gets submitted - txs are dropped. Only a fraction of txs are making it through.
- In order to maximize the chance that a tx gets processed, bots start spamming txs to the network.
- This ends up hurting real users who can't spam at the same rate. It's now less likely that their txs get processed.
Thanks to @0xBreadguy for the visuals of this situation.
It's important to note that this is different from a typical failed transaction. Failed txs usually mean the txs were processed by a validator and didn't succeed due to the state of the chain.
The failures you're seeing now are at the network layer (QUIC is pretty new tech), which needs to be improved. Thanks @mert for explaining much of this to me.
PS: this chart of failed Solana transactions is unrelated to the dropped tx issue above. These are mostly caused by arbitrage bots (that don't care about state failures) spamming the chain. Most users are failing before they even get to this point lol.
Your 9-5 + crypto = freedom.
1. Use your 9-5 to invest in crypto.
2. 50hrs research before spending $1.
3. Passive income (DeFi & Mining)
4. Don't invest what you need to pay bills.
5. Practice patience.
Use your job.
Don't let your job use you.