The Blown Lead Paradox

Run by @JDPipping and @AdiWyner. A @WhartonSABI project.

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Blown leads happen more often than you think.

When a team loses a game it looked certain to win, how surprised should we really be?

A @WhartonSABI project.

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Pacers 123, Pelicans 120. Oct. 21, 2026.

New Orleans (38.0%) reached 87.7% win probability, up 95–88 with 10:03 left in Q4.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 14.03% of games. For teams starting at 38.0%, 8.60% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

76ers 106, Knicks 100. Oct. 20, 2026.

New York (52.1%) reached 80.8% win probability, up 46–37 with 5:31 left in Q2.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 23.76% of games. For teams starting at 52.1%, 25.85% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Pistons 121, Celtics 113. Oct. 20, 2026.

Boston (48.9%) reached 98.5% win probability, up 72–50 with 8:19 left in Q3.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 1.52% of games. For teams starting at 48.9%, 1.46% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Cardinals 18, Rams 16. Oct. 18, 2026.

Los Angeles (87.3%) reached 91.5% win probability, tied 0–0 with 12:18 left in Q1.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 9.34% of games. For teams starting at 87.3%, 64.42% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Titans 26, Colts 20. Oct. 18, 2026.

Indianapolis (72.3%) reached 94.1% win probability, up 13–0 with 15:00 left in Q3.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 6.29% of games. For teams starting at 72.3%, 16.46% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19. Oct. 18, 2026.

Tampa Bay (41.5%) reached 91.0% win probability, up 16–3 with 0:00 left in Q3.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 9.93% of games. For teams starting at 41.5%, 7.03% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Browns 13, Ravens 10. Oct. 18, 2026.

Baltimore (55.5%) reached 87.5% win probability, up 10–3 with 1:45 left in Q3.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 14.25% of games. For teams starting at 55.5%, 17.79% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Bills 37, Rams 34. Oct. 12, 2026.

Los Angeles (58.0%) reached 83.7% win probability, tied 34–34 with 5:37 left in OT.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 19.46% of games. For teams starting at 58.0%, 26.88% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Ravens 30, Falcons 23. Oct. 11, 2026.

Atlanta (60.1%) reached 97.6% win probability, up 23–15 with 2:25 left in Q4.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 2.48% of games. For teams starting at 60.1%, 3.74% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN

[The Blown Lead Paradox @blownleadbot]

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17. Oct. 11, 2026.

Philadelphia (26.3%) reached 99.9% win probability, up 17–16 with 0:08 left in Q4.

Under our benchmark, a collapse this extreme occurs in 0.10% of games. For teams starting at 26.3%, only 0.04% of losses are this extreme.

WP: @ESPN