This is good news for the markets, but what matters is the details. So letβs set objective standards right now:
Good deal:
- Removal of enriched nuclear material
- Freeze of nuclear program with clear inspections and inspection mechanism
- Sanctions relief dependent on ending support for terror proxies in other countries.
- suspension of ballistic missile program
- End control of S of H.
- Tehran does not dictate what happens in Lebanon.
Meh deal (~JCPOA):
- Give up enriched nuclear material and freeze of nuclear program in exchange for some sanctions relief
- Return to free trade flow on SoH
- Sanctions related to terror support remain in place until terror proxy funding ends
Bad deal:
- Financial bailout with no concrete commitment on nuclear material or program and no direct mechanism for enforcement
- No limits on support for terror proxies tied to sanction relief
The MOU can be an intermediary step but can only be considered good if it allows outcome above without US giving up leverage first. Because then step 2 will never happen and no amount of spin can sell a bad deal.