The biggest game changer for me was realizing the most powerful edge is sitting on hands. Its the unplanned, impulse trades that don't correlate to any setup that generate losses. I plan exactly where I am going to enter & have 1 setup that I look for there. Otherwise, no trading
@FarmforAnswers@TakeProfitLLC i created a way to export screenshots and trade breakdowns from ninjatraDR to obsidian and started journaling ! and only take 3 trades a day now,, big improvement
The cleanest way I've found to explain why higher IV means more time value.
Implied vol is the market's expectation of future realised vol. So a higher implied vol means that the market expects this asset to move more.
Take two options that are both expiring in a week and both 5% out of the money. The chance of getting in the money is whether the asset can move 5% in a week.
On a low-vol asset like a two-year note, that does not happen. So the chance of that 5% out of the money call getting in the money is pretty much zero. Very, very little time value, basically.
Now take a 5% out of the money call on bitcoin. Would that have any chance of being in the money in a week? For sure it would, because bitcoin could easily do 5% in a week. Maybe it could do 5% in a day.
So a 5% out of the money call in bitcoin expiring a week will have some decent value because it's got a fairly high chance of getting in the money.
Same percentage out of the money. Same time to expiry. Different time value, because the asset has a different chance of getting there. That's what implied vol is pricing.
Less is more in trading. The simplicity of my trading and my P&L are inversely correlated and every extra setup, indicator, market I removed boosted my P&L. I used to trade every setup I saw in many markets, then narrowed to three setups, now its just 1, in 1 market, long only
BREAKING: Iran has launched "Hormuz Safe," a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for shipping companies that want to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Details include:
1. The Iranian government says it could generate more than $10 billion in revenue from the program
2. The service will be for "Iranian shipping companies and cargo owners"
3. "The shipment will be covered from the moment of confirmation and signed receipt will be given to the owner," Iran says
4. It is unclear if this insurance service will be charged in addition to tolls, which have been as much as $2 million per ship
Iran says an official website with more information is "coming soon."
@swys__@rohanpaul_ai if you work long enough with claude it can build this, you then realise the public has no access to any of the data beside yahoo finance which theyll soon axe.. then you start to see why theres a data underclass. that gives all their data away for free.
And this is why you pay $30,000 a year for a Bloomberg terminal.
Founder of the Bloomberg Terminal explaining here the functions.
The most elite information and analytical tools are still nowhere near the hands of the everyday public.