BenAris

long time Russia reporter. ex Daily Telegraph moscow bureau, ex Banker/Euromoney contributing editor, 15 yrs freelance. founder & editor business new europe

[BenAris @bneeditor]

im working on an AI project. this is what it does to you...

[Iuliia Mendel @IuliiaMendel]

BBC has emailed me several weeks ago. After @Telegraph lies about me I said I am going to do only live with BBC, since I am afraid that my intevriew can be manipulated. We agreed for today. But BBC lawyers said "no." They want me only pre-recorded, perhaps, they need to show it to lawyers.... Freedom of speech as it is.

[BenAris @bneeditor]

#RadioMoskva

Ukraine deal needs a statesman – and we don’t have one of those

There is clearly a deal in the works to end the war in Ukraine but there is a lot of confusion over what is exactly on the table and how the Kremlin will react. We need a statesman of historical stature to get a deal over the line and none of the players on the stage fit the bill.

One thing that is clear is a security guarantee for Ukraine has been offered but will need Kremlin approval as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to sign off on it.

The main issue is that Zelenskiy will have to give up the rest of the Donbas but it was suggested he could get a real Nato-like guarantee in return. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner said explicitly earlier this month that if Zelenskiy concedes the rest of the Donbas then a deal is done. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at the same yesterday saying “both sides will have to give something up.”

So as far as I'm concerned, the whole ball game turns on this one issue. As for the rest, it’s all Istanbul sprinkles – important points that will get wrapped into a final deal, but the Donbas/security deal is core and if there is no agreement there then that is a dealbreaker.

How likely is a deal? Witkoff said after his Putin meeting in St Petersburg that the talks have been handed over to the foreign ministry technical guys, which strongly suggests a really serious effort to find a compromise formula is underway. But really, we have no idea. Social media is full of “takes” as a cavalry of hobby horses are deployed and everyone is rolling out their favourite narratives – most predicting no deal can be done.

To be honest there is no way to decide and it’s pointless until the technical blueprint is thrashed out. The motives are clear though:

- Trump badly needs a peace as he goes into the midterms;
- Zelenskiy badly needs a ceasefire as he has run out of air defence ammo completely;
Putin needs a peace deal as the economy is hurting and Ukraine fatigue is building up amongst the elite.

From the three players, Putin it the one who is not in a rush. Things are going well politically after Trump basically threw Ukraine under the bus with his diesel deal and at the same time cut off Ukraine’s access to more interceptions by cancelling Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) and throttlingaccess to Starlink, which knocks out Ukraine new jet powered interceptor drones. But they are going badly on the battlefield as Ukraine’s highly successful Operation Vivaldi comes to an end, retaking most of the land in the Donbas Russia won this year.

Putin has two options: continue to grind away in Donbas and bomb the rest of the country flat this winter in the hope that Bankova will be forced to capitulate; or do a negotiated peace deal and freeze the line of contact and make some other small concessions. Exactly what that entails is the subject of the current talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week there is some wiggle room.

The advantage of the second is that it opens the door to some sanctions relief and also for going into business with the US, which Putin is very keen on as it gives him some badly needed leverage in his relationship with China. The first will allow him to wind down the military spending that is doing so much damage to the economy, but those sanctions won’t come off for generations, and he will have to keep investing into defence simply as the EU will invest into it. That is a road to stagnation, or at least decades of underperformance.

Another bitter pill Zelenskiy will be forced to swallow in any deal is formally giving up his Nato ambitions and change the constitution back to neutrality that was in there until former President Petro Poroshenko changed it to make Nato membership a “national ambition” in 2014. This whole war started over the Nato issue, but this should not be a big concession as its crystal clear that Ukraine will never be allowed to join and besides neutrality was written into Ukraine’s founding documents when it got independence. It also makes perfect sense given its geography, caught between east and west. In short: Ukraine needs to do a Finland, which worked well enough before.

Intriguingly, I have heard some talk of doing a wider “European security deal.”

This of course is the answer to all the problems. We have long argued that Nato is a Cold War construct to protect the West against an enemy that no longer exists. It’s high time for a new pan-European security deal that takes account of the new realities; the Kremlin badly wants this and has already floated a comprehensive plan in 2008, so suggesting it would push at an open door. It would also provide both Russia and Ukraine with real and comprehensive security deals as the Kremlin wants a security deal as badly as Bankova does.

One way to kick this off constructively would be to reactivate all the Cold War-era missile agreements, which given the current escalation would also be an excellent idea; we are currently in more danger of a MAD nuclear exchange than we were when the Soviet Union was still about. This is another open door as Putin has made it crystal clear that the Kremlin badly wants this too. Like I said the whole war in Ukraine for Putin is all about Russia’s security – it is the one really Soviet thing about him.

From this perspective, there is actually more common ground for a deal that first appears, but of course the politics are so toxic after four-years of war that even getting everyone around the table is next to impossible. This is work for a real statesman of historic stature, and there is no one on the stage that fits the job description. Trump is… well, not a statesman. The EU can’t agree on a candidate to represent them. The Dynamic Envoy Duo are both amateurs (and venally corrupt – Vanity Fair broke a fresh Arab money Kushner scandal yesterday). The two obvious European Commission candidates of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas are ruled out by the Kremlin. Indeed, the Kremlin said it will reject any suggestions by Europe out of hand. And if you put Kallas in a room with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he would eat her alive.

We suggested that the EU send ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to Moscow to talk peace with Putin, simply because Putin says he will talk to him. There are a lot of problems with this of course, but it might work as it will give Schroeder a chance to redeem his name for the history books as he is going to be vilified at the moment for taking that Gazprom job only 17 days after leaving office.

Schroeder works now and the bottom line is if he doesn’t rise to the challenge then simply reject his deal. What is there to lose? All the previous deals were rejected so it won’t change anything if this deal is rejected too. But at least Schroeder can come up with a deal that the Kremlin will accept, which is more than anyone else has managed to do. For all his (many) faults, Schroeder is at least a professional politician, if maybe not a statesman.

The other name that has come up is Finnish President Alexander Stubb and the Kremlin said yesterday they are not rejecting that out of hand provided he goes as a “neighbourly country” representative and not a rep of the EU. The EU has to choose someone as you can’t have a peace deal without talks and Brussels has made next to no effort to seriously find a workable candidate. The EU has been totally sidelined in the peace deal talks but if real talks are underway then now is the time to do it. Stubb is not a bad choice, but will also need to rise to the challenge – if the Kremlin accepts him

This article originally appeared in Editor’s Picks, a free daily email digest of bne IntelliNews’ best stories from the last 24 hours. Sign up for free here.
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[DTEK Group @dtek_en]

Another major attack on Ukraine’s energy system.

Several waves of russian strikes on Thursday seriously damaged a DTEK thermal power plant and forced it to stop generating electricity.

It is part of a sustained campaign against Ukraine’s power stations ahead of winter. Our teams will begin repairs as soon as it is safe.

[Iuliia Mendel @IuliiaMendel]

Ukrainian forces struck the 75th Arsenal in Serpukhov, Moscow region, overnight. The facility specializes in the repair, restoration, and storage of military equipment, including Buk-M1, Buk-M2, and S-300V air defense systems.

[The Tectonic @thetect0nic]

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 BREAKING: U.S. peace proposals delivered to Vladimir Putin include a scenario in which Ukraine would surrender all of Donbas to Russia in exchange for NATO security guarantees, according to a Kremlin-connected source speaking to Reuters.

The proposal was reportedly among the documents Steve Witkoff presented to Putin during their meeting in St. Petersburg.

The revelation raises a question about Washington's latest diplomatic initiative: whether Ukraine is again being asked to relinquish territory that Russian forces have failed to capture militarily.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed willingness to negotiate a ceasefire along the existing front lines but has repeatedly rejected withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the remaining Ukrainian-controlled areas of Donbas. Those territories include strategically important defensive positions that Kyiv considers essential to its future security.

The reported scenario also leaves major questions unanswered about the nature of NATO's proposed guarantees, their enforcement and whether Russia would accept such an arrangement.

Reuters has not reported that Ukraine agreed to the proposal or that any agreement was reached during Witkoff's meeting with Putin.

For now, the territorial dispute remains unresolved, even as Washington and Moscow discuss restarting trilateral negotiations.

Source: Reuters, October 22, 2026.

[Military Summary @MilitarySummary]

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever:

The trade deficit is growing and growing. We are above 1 billion euros every day of deficit.

There's not one country of the 27 that still has a positive balance with China, and that's unsustainable, and everybody agrees on that.

Maybe the advantage of being all in the negative is that we finally all agree that this cannot go on like this.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

A Russian Geran-4 jet-drone struck the Vantovyy Bridge in Zaporizhzhia City last night.

Traffic in both directions was temporarily suspended following the attack.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

Russia continued heavily attacking the western regions of Ukraine with Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-drones last night.

Explosions were heard in/near the following locations:

- Bershad, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vapniarka, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Haisyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Zhmerynka, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Pohrebyshche, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Ovruch, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Buchach, Ternopil Oblast
- Ivano-Frankivsk City
- Morshyn, Lviv Oblast
- Zhydachiv, Lviv Oblast
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast
- Zdolbuniv, Rivne Oblast
- Rivne City
- Sarny, Rivne Oblast
- Dubrovytsia, Rivne Oblast
- Lutsk, Volyn Oblast
- Dubechne, Volyn Oblast

These only include locations in the western regions where explosions were heard since yesterday afternoon. There were numerous other cities also hit in the central, southern, northern, and eastern regions.

[Victor vicktop55 commentary @vick55top]

The Russian Army has dealt a massive blow to the military facilities of Ukraine — the Ministry of Defense drones. ▪️

Transport infrastructure facilities in Kiev.

▪️ Port infrastructure of the Odessa region and ships used in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

▪️ More than 20 missiles were fired at the capital of Ukraine at night. Ukrainian air defense was unable to intercept ballistic targets due to a lack of anti-missiles, including for the Patriot PAC-3.

▪️ Reports on fires at CHPP-5 and CHPP-4, explosions in the area of the Trypillskaya TPP and the Antonov plant are reported.

▪️ In Kiev, the Epicenter shopping complex is also on fire. According to preliminary information, the fire broke out in another shopping center.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

I can confirm that Russian MoD claim that the Antonov Aircraft Plant in Kyiv was targeted last night.

Three Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from Rostov Oblast impacted it. A Geran-2 drone subsequently carried out reconnaissance of the damage after the attack.

[Marta Havryshko @HavryshkoMarta]

While everyone in Europe is busy giving the U.S. a moral lecture over the diesel deal, Brussels has quietly lifted sanctions on Russian sable imports.

And the best part? All 27 EU member states voted for this.

Sanctions are sacred. Until they clash with someone's winter wardrobe😂

[Dave Keating @DaveKeating]

Breaking: the EU Parliament has awarded this year's Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

It comes as the court is under an unprecedented attack from the US government.
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[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

- The Kremlin is attempting to negotiate under the false assumption that Russia holds the strategic initiative on the battlefield in Ukraine, despite ample evidence to the contrary.

- The United States, Ukraine, and Russia will likely hold trilateral peace negotiations around November 10.

- Russian forces recently advanced south of Dobropillya.

- Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Iskander-K cruise missiles and 186 drones and loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight on October 20 to 21.

[Vladimir Frolov @vfroloff]

Ru made it clear yesterday it could see the leaders of Finland and Norway at the table, but only as leaders of Ru neighboring states. Ru does not want anyone from Brussels there. The “neighbor” format may extend to Turkey/Poland/Slovakia/Romania/Hungary, but not now.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

A Russian Geran-4 jet-drone struck a Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter stationed at an airbase.

A warehouse complex and an industrial facility were also targeted.

[Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo]

Russia's losses are over 200 billion rubles a month due to the closure of the Black Sea shipping due to Ukrainian drone attacks. The key ports of Novorossiysk, Taman and Tuapse have either fired their staff or sent it on long term leave due to this.

[Victor vicktop55 commentary @vick55top]

"At the start of the war, Russia had three main demands, and Zelensky agreed to them": In 2022, Zelensky was prepared to accept all of Russia's demands.

Former Member of Parliament and entrepreneur Vadym Novynskyi has stated that Volodymyr Zelensky should resign and that power in Ukraine should be transferred to the Verkhovna Rada (parliament), which ought to initiate direct negotiations with Russia to end the war. According to Novynskyi, the parliament must take on a key role because, in his view, there will be no peace as long as Zelensky remains in power. He also revealed that, during the initial days of the full-scale war, he was involved in organizing negotiations with Russia, and at that time, Zelensky agreed to all the conditions proposed by the Russian side.

"I cleared every point with President Zelensky. He agreed to everything back then—he didn't even dispute a single issue. He would simply ask, 'What do you think?' I would reply, 'I think such-and-such.' 'Fine, I agree,' was his response," says Novynskyi. "Russia’s first and primary demand was to remove the clause regarding Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO from the Constitution and to enshrine a non-aligned, neutral status instead. Zelensky asked me how he should proceed. I countered by asking him: 'Do you think Ukraine will join NATO within the next 30 years?' He said, 'No.' I replied, 'Then perhaps it’s acceptable to drop the mention of joining the Alliance from the Constitution.'

The second demand was for Ukraine to recognize a special status for Crimea—though not as part of the Russian Federation—for a period of 30 years. Zelensky agreed to this as well. The third major issue concerned the recognition of a specific status for the Donbas." At that time, it was still possible to keep the Donbas within Ukraine—though not on the terms stipulated by the Minsk Agreements. The Donbas could have returned as part of a confederal arrangement—but, crucially, still within Ukraine. Zelensky had even agreed to this. The entire process of drafting the agreements took about a month—lasting until nearly the end of March, when the parties met in Istanbul.

According to Novinsky, the whole thing fell apart because Zelensky had no desire to end the war. He enjoyed being a hero and receiving universal attention. "In the end, he traded the lives of Ukrainians for applause in the parliaments of other countries," the former MP added.

Now, Zelensky needs to agree to a capitulation, but he refuses. Well, if he doesn't want to, so be it. He will vanish along with Ukraine.

[Military Summary @MilitarySummary]

An approximate visualization of the flight paths of UAVs and missiles during today’s attack.

The following were deployed against Ukrainian territory:
⚠️ Up to 150 Geran/Gerbera attack UAVs;
⚠️ 8 S-400 ballistic missiles launched from the Bryansk region;
⚠️ 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from the Bryansk region;
❗️ 10 Zircon hypersonic ballistic missiles launched from the Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov regions.

💥 The primary targets of the attack were Kyiv and the Kyiv region.

[AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 @AMK_Mapping_]

Dnipro came under attack from Russian Geran-4 jet-drones last night, resulting in a fire breaking out.

Power outages were reported in parts of the city following the strikes. One of the targets was likely once again the Prydniprovska Thermal Power Plant, which has been repeatedly targeted in recent days.