Brendan Nemeth

Investment analyst, amateur golfer, professional parent, irreverent humor

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@Yuchenj_UW Outside of coding what do Anthropic and OpenAI do better? For equity research I don’t notice much of a difference

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@ContrarianCurse Do you think the labs are that different outside of coding use cases? Coding sure but if you’re doing equity research I haven’t seen one that’s head and shoulders better

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@institLPGP GMLT had several short term catalysts

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@BenBajarin Isn’t this bad for the semiconductor industry broadly if open source wins? Who’s going to fund these massive data centers if you can’t charge a premium for the tokens? Or am I missing something?

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@HFMajorTom I don’t think we are there yet with respect to inference demand. And all these mega cap equity raises are going to chips mostly. But I am very paranoid about when this cycle might end!

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@HFMajorTom Memory is more levered to inference demand than people realize. There’s a 0.9 correlation between DRAM prices and Anthropic and OpenAI ARR growth. If you think first adopters over consumed tokens and frontier labs ARR stalls out; that’s your negative catalyst

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@nachkari Ok I hear you. I’m trying to get up to speed on it. US DoD is required to get US tungsten after Jan 1, 2027 so it seemed like a unique opportunity. So there seems to be a unique inelastic demand source. But I need to do more work on the global supply / demand picture thanks

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@nachkari Stan Druckenmiller owns over 10% of it. Why do you think this is a bad time for tungsten when China won’t export to the US and there’s mandates from the DoD to buy friendly country tungsten?

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@nachkari Do you have an opinion on GMTL?

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@P_Remarks The scanner data should turn more positive for core Celsius once the shelf resets are complete in June. TDPs are declining as they’ve rationalized SKUs but velocity is picking up now. Should see overall core Celsius revenue accelerate into the summer

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@MF_Camillus Well put. I was skeptical but have been long now for a month. How much do you think demand in bits grows? Today it’s in the 40% range. Supply might grow mid-teens, maybe low 20s if they start ramping capacity in 2029-2030. Does that dovetail with your thinking

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@P_Remarks @scuttleblurb I was recently asked what my most misunderstood position was and I replied Celsius. Scanner data should accelerate on spring shelf resets and the street is mis-modeling SG&A. Could double easily. MNST trades at 25x EBITDA, CELH at 8x

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@BenBajarin I always felt memory was the black tar heroin of the semiconductor industry but I’ve been converted. If you understand memory’s importance for inference it’s a no brainer long. Supply will not grow faster than 20% a year and demand should easily outstrip that by 5-10% a year

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@CinemaTweets1 Some great scenes - Jules having dinner with her older client stands out to me. I’m bored by the Nate and Cassie storyline. Rue is the only 3D developed character right now the rest of the storylines feel like vignettes

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@CSUnerd @_inpractise @dcurras1 Can I ask - why would existing software customers prefer a probabilistic system? Don’t they want the deterministic system that gives them the correct answer, especially when in Topicus’ case they charge ~1% of their customers revenues?

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@ProfDBernstein You’re meant to feel Bateman’s madness which is why it can feel disorienting. If you read closely he makes very basic pop culture reference mistakes all the time. The movie leaned into the black humor of the book and left most of the madness out

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@NegativeAlp Is this why Celsius is down on the Iran conflict?

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@CJ0pp3l Oh wait I see what you mean now. They bought a business that’s a carve out

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@CJ0pp3l Did they announce this? I don’t see anything on their IR page or press releases

[Brendan Nemeth @bnemethbrown]

@sergioattila75 @GarpandChill The CEO’s family office is the main minority shareholder. Their NCI gets netted out of reported FCFA2S. You’d be hitting them twice on FCFA2S per share if you counted their shares and subtracted their NCI. Easier to use reported FCFA2S and basic shares for public shareholders