I have to admit, I was wrong.
I wasn’t expecting the market to recover this fast, especially with the war still ongoing.
I thought the market would either 1) stay low for a while or 2) drop a bit further.
Called the BTC top at 126K, the ZEC short at the exact top to the penny, and bought oil right before the war started, among other things. It’s all public. But here we are. One wrong prediction.
For those wondering, I never shorted the market. I didn’t lose money. In fact, I made money on the recovery because I bought a decent position in MSFT under its 200 WMA, and I’m very happy I did.
Your goal should always be to be positioned for both scenarios so you can benefit in either direction.
Keep enough cash, or cash equivalents earning yield, so that if the market drops, you can buy low. And keep enough positions to also profit on the way up.
Not to brag, but with my size, capital protection is and always will be the number one priority. I understand that if your portfolio is just a few thousand bucks, we probably have different views, and that’s perfectly fine.
I sold the S&P near 7,000, I publicly bought oil companies and sold for a 20% profit, and I bought MSFT near the bottom. In my books, that’s a win.
And yes, I’m still bearish. I trust the data, not some temu trader on X. My view hasn’t changed once and I will stick to the plan no matter what.
The data suggests we are very close to a cycle top. And every “this time is different” comment I read only increases my conviction that it is, so I would like to thank you for that.
Feel free to ignore my warnings, we don’t know each other after all.
But if you decide to deploy all your capital right now, just know that you’re gambling in the most overvalued market in the history of humankind.
Thank you, NL.