Bobby Cross

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@DepaolaSal It was quite the entertaining thread watching them try to persuade Grok to believe their BS after it made them look like idiots.

[C🅰️tSE @CatSE___ApeX___]

Come along for a deep dive in reading between the lines. And in the documents not made public.

We’ll be discussing SDA futures program. And how $ASTS is affected.

🐈‍⬛ CatSE: ”The smoking gun of a upcoming Golden Dome contract in plain sight”

1/n

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@Tjban31 @d2swingy72777 @SECGov It sounds like investing in individual stocks isn't for you. Or don't buy short dated options if you can't handle the risk of them going to zero

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@jeffbcross @sarahhepola The fear of getting to a concert late is great motivation for a pit crew style tire change. 🤣

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@CatSE___ApeX___ Did I just become more bullish?? Great thread. Powder keg setting up.

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@steve2bacon Such a hot take

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@StockOptionCole What do you mean by "make it make sense?" It's a holiday and it didn't just pop up this week - it's been known for a while now lol

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@Tjban31 @d2swingy72777 No clue what that has to do with this convo lol. My point is there are many things outside of our control, including market mechanics. Find a way to capitalize or invest in ETFs. I sold puts today instead of complaining

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@Tjban31 @d2swingy72777 Because we have no choice. Stoicism wins in the market

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@ACEdge @NighthawkTradez That would depend on a lot of factors, but more reasonable of an expectation than a +150% move on an expected outcome.

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@SemiAnalysis_

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

AST SpaceMobile Announces Successful Orbital Launch of BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10

https://t.co/sEO7PNSMFd

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@pharmdaz I got a two hour nap in. Hope I can go back to sleep after deployment but I'll probably be too jacked on adrenaline

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@jeffbcross I was just trying to make the best of the situation

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

I got stuck with the seat behind this guy and they wouldn't even give me a refund. WORST EVENT OF MY LIFE

[Jeff Cross @jeffbcross]

Front row at @cursor_ai Compile, blocking the view for everyone else

[Reformed Tr🅰️der @Reformed_Trader]

The speed $SPCX is moving to raise capital, merge/make acquisitions coupled with their robust guidance for D2D and orbital data centers points to an untapped market for which they intend to fight ambitiously.

D2D: last week SpaceX said the quiet part out loud. They are going to compete directly with MNOs. This effectively put every MNO on notice and forces their hand to make moves decisively and swiftly. Whatever plans they have in place is now going to be pulled forward.

For any megatech company watching SpaceX adding over $1T to their market cap, heavily driven by their D2D ambitions, they now have motivation to pursue this untapped market. SpaceX putting a $740B TAM/year on this market, as well as claiming they see the D2D market as eventually surpassing fixed broadband from space by subscriber is a signal that can't be ignored.

We know $META sent a team to visit both SpaceX and ASTS headquarters several months ago. They're paying attention. We know $AMZN is scooping up $GSAT, imo, primarily to keep their spectrum out of SpaceX's hands, but they need something else to make it viable D2D solution. We know $GOOG has a sizeable stake in ASTS already and has been collaborating with them for a number of years. Each of these companies do not have a habit of sitting out of a race that has a lot of money at the finish line.

$VZ $T and $TMUS recently proposed a joint venture to pool their spectrum specifically for D2D solutions. It was apparent that ASTS was in their inner circle as they had a PR ready to commend the proposal while the rest of the crew was silent. Several SpaceX executives later communicated frustration at the proposal indicating they were either not part of the discussions or realize a joint venture does not benefit them.

This latest development points to a potential U.S. MNOs monopoly for ASTS if T-Mobile does create an agreement with ASTS while SpaceX looks more at the direct to consumer approach.

Starlink's implied market cap has gone up significantly being driven by their D2D guidance. Mind you, their current constellation is awful, generating speeds in the single digits of mbps. Their next generation is expected to generate speeds of 150mbps. So it's reasonable to say that the market is not pricing in their current constellation but their coming constellation expected as early as mid 2027.

ASTS is currently deploying their constellation now into early to mid 2027 with expected speeds at nearly 200mbps. So both SpaceX and ASTS are on pace to have their respective constellations up around the same time. Yet the market wants to price in Starlink's future constellation now and ASTS's later? That narrative can switch very fast.

Some have floated the idea of ASTS being a takeover target, and honestly it makes a lot of sense why MNOs and some megatech companies would want to scoop them up. But the implied valuation would have to be enormous with both SpaceX and analysts pointing to $740B TAM/year with rich margins (70%-95%). You do the math and you realize how expensive a buyout would have to be to even get Abel to entertain a deal.

Orbital data centers: The push for orbital AI is just as shocking. SpaceX filing for 1M satellites is eyepopping. This itself is another signal to other companies that are pursuing this or considering it. This also can pull forward plans.

The demand for solar power generation and cooling in space is significant to meet the demands of orbital compute. Currently, ASTS satellites generate the most power in LEO while also efficiently cooling. Any company looking to pursue orbital data centers needs to either create their own solar and cooling solutions or look at the companies that are already doing it efficiently.

While ASTS is not currently involved with any projects for data centers, it's not hard to imagine a situation where a company that is going to pursue this approaches them to either have them build the solar arrays or license the tech for the ultimate passive cash flow play.

In other words, multiple parties have a fire lit under them from Musk's latest moves in both D2D and orbital data centers. Everyone knows Musk moves fast and is not shy to spend a lot upfront to position for the next 5-10 years. He now has $85.7B he didn't have just two weeks ago as well as a rich market cap to acquire companies like Cursor, as we just saw this morning.

I expect over the next several quarters to see the reaction from MNOs and megatech, and I believe their primary viable option is to work with/invest in ASTS.

Starlink's implied market cap today is $1.6-$1.9T while $ASTS trades at $33B. Bears can argue all they want about ASTS' need to execute but they're missing the forest for the trees. There are only two real players in D2D. There is ample room for both and the timelines are irrelevant when the ultimate destination is a $740B TAM/year.

*speculation
*NFA

[Bobby Cross @BobbyCross1]

@TradeCycles @we_no_all I hear ya. I'm playing it like a very binary event and have some way OTM puts as insurance for a catastrophe. F9 is reliable. Biggest risk is the new stacking/deploying mechanisms being used, but I think it's pretty low risk overall. I'd be surprised if we stay flat from here.