In new research, I argue that our models and forecasts for the economy must be more inclusive of credit-market factors and that the housing bust alone can’t explain the severity of the Great Recession: https://t.co/obzpl3xbsQ #BPEA#FinCrisisLessons
I have lived in the UK for more than 22 years, teaching British kids physics and chemistry at University. At the end of March, I risk becoming an illegal alien and I am dismayed that most of my UK colleagues and friends don’t seem to give a damn. #800daysInLimbo#PeoplesVote
Holy crap. The cost of a cup of coffee just hit 2 million bolivars in Venezuela. It was just 1 million earlier this month, and now the pace of inflation is surging past 1 million percent. https://t.co/uYVUR8PbHb
A new version of Macrobond out today... Seasonal adjustment for Chinese New Year, the Cholesky method, and lot's more. If you haven't yet - go click on the yellow banner! https://t.co/TtADzeQRxy
While momentum is decent in Euro-area inflation it almost entirely comes from food and energy prices. The underlying price pressures are almost non-existent.
(3/3) ...on a "momentum" basis has normalised since the out sized swings of early 2017. Some sort of shock might very well derail this (think oil, FX, etc), but with solid growth and less slack, the baseline forecast has to be that inflation will move close to target. Soon!
(2/3)...we focus on core PCE inflation EXCLUDING HC (HC is about 20% of core PCE), then core inflation has been absolutely normal during this expansion. And...
(1/3) As markets await US inflation data with some anxiety, I am still surprised as to how little attention is paid to the role of Health Care inflation - HC has been unusually low (up until very recently) contributing 30bps LESS than the pre-crisis norm. If...